Indian Cigarette Sales on Track to Surpass Pre-Covid Levels

Indian cigarette sales are set to touch 93 billion sticks this year on the back of a stable tax regime and increased mobility after the ebbing of pandemic restrictions, reports The Financial Express, citing a study by rating agency Crisil.

Covid-19 lockdowns caused cigarette volumes to plunge to 77 billion sticks in 2021 from 90 billion sticks in 2020. As restrictions eased, cigarette sales recovered to 88 billion sticks.

The higher volumes will help cigarette manufacturers cope with the rising cost of inputs, which Crisil expects to shave manufacturers’ gross margins by 100-150 basis points.

Indian cigarette makers use flue-cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco, which is grown mostly in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka. FCV prices have risen 15 percent since last year as cultivation was impacted by untimely rainfall in December 2021 and January 2022.

Meanwhile, prices of paper are estimated to be 10 percent higher this fiscal year on an already-elevated base from 2020. India’s recently enacted ban on single-use plastics has driven up products costs, too, as cigarette manufacturers shift to biodegradable materials.

Between 2013 and 2017, excise duties on cigarettes rose annually at 15.7 percent. In fiscal 2018, the industry saw a further 20 percent hike in taxes as a result of the increase in excise duty and transition to a good and services tax.

Despite such challenges, cigarette manufacturers appear to be in good financial shape.

According to Crisil Associate Director Gopikishan Dongra, tobacco companies are likely to retain around 65 percent operating margins, due to the strong competitive advantage of established manufacturers and high entry barriers such as entrenched distribution channels and restrictions on advertising.