The Investor’s Perspective
The 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act charged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration with regulating tobacco products for the protection of public health; so, from one point of view, it was dismaying to hear a panelist on the Investor Panel of the recent GTNF describe how, under the tutelage of the FDA, the U.S. tobacco and nicotine market had become a resilient one for combustible cigarettes.
Of course, this being an investors panel, the panelist’s comment was less about the FDA and more about Altria, whose short-term fortunes are tied to a large extent to the resilience of the combustible segment and whose reduced-risk strategy was said by another panelist to be unclear. Altria’s appeal as an investment opportunity was contrasted with that of another U.S.-listed company, Philip Morris International, which has had success in moving its sales from higher risk to lower risk products.
The panelists discussed the proposed acquisition of Swedish Match by PMI, which, if it goes ahead, would allow PMI to use SM as a vehicle for marketing in the U.S. the heated-tobacco device IQOS, which has marketing approval and is the subject of an FDA modified-risk order but which is currently banned from being imported following a patents dispute, a ban that is being challenged in the courts. According to one panelist, Altria has an agreement with PMI to market IQOS in the U.S. until April 2024, but there is apparently a question mark over whether the agreement provides for Altria to extend the agreement for another five years.
This raises the question of how an Altria shorn of its right to market IQOS would fare. Well, apparently, Altria is said to be due to unveil a heated-tobacco product toward the end of this year, but with FDA approval necessary, it would take some time for the company to start commercializing a new product. One interesting comment made the point that while PMI was years ahead of Altria in the heated-tobacco product field, the two companies used to be one.
There seemed to be an assumption at times that PMI would be able easily to muscle in on the U.S. market, but not everybody was having that. One panelist made the point that Altria and other U.S. companies were likely to prove highly competitive, and another added that IQOS might not be welcomed with open arms by U.S. consumers who had access to a range of reduced-risk products, including e-cigarettes, which had out-competed IQOS on some other markets. But on the other side of this coin, PMI was said to be starting to widen the focus of its reduced-risk strategy in respect of product categories.
It would seem that a week is a long time in the investment arena. During the panel discussion, Altria was seen as being in a difficult position when it comes to vaping. Its investment in Juul Labs involved a no-competition clause, and Juul has suffered a setback in the form of an FDA marketing denial order (MDO). The panelists indicated that the MDO was being contested, however, and that it would be open to Altria to make an outright bid for Juul. Less than a week after the panel met, however, Altria announced that it had exercised its option to permanently terminate its noncompetition obligations to Juul.
Surprisingly, perhaps, threats raised by the potential cigarette menthol ban and the imposition of a very low-nicotine cigarette standard in the U.S. were not yet seen as particular drags on tobacco businesses’ appeal to investors since, partly because of likely legal challenges, they were seen as being some way off.
On a wider front, while PMI was seen as a growth company, it was said to be facing headwinds created by the strength of the dollar and its exit from Russia. Or not. One panelist said that only Imperial Brands had exited Russia completely and that he would be surprised if the other major companies, which had invested heavily in the country, had exited Russia without providing for a way back.
On a more general level, the investment case for tobacco was seen as strong, partly because most companies—the exception seems to be PMI—are undervalued but also because they offer strong and secure cash flows and high yields. This situation was said not to have changed but to be more appreciated now than it was two or three years ago, particularly in the face of a recession. And while the appeal of tobacco stocks would be negatively impacted by the current increases in interest rates, on the positive side, most tobacco company debt was at fixed rates. Still, environmental, social and governance issues comprised an overhang in respect of getting investors interested in tobacco stock.
The discussions were heavily skewed toward the U.S. market and U.S. companies to the extent that the chairman apologized for ignoring the world outside the U.S. and Europe. The upcoming EU directives on excise taxes and tobacco products were mentioned, the former in a fairly good light given that it seemed that harmonized taxes would not be set at the same level across product categories but at a lower level on less risky products. Such a rational policy seems at odds with the tobacco product directive, which seems set to retain the irrational ban on snus.
BAT and Imperial Brands were said to be undervalued by investors. BAT’s multi-category reduced-risk portfolio was held up as the way ahead, and its success with Vuse was highlighted a couple of times. Mention was made of a new management at Imperial that was said to be getting to grips with the business, focusing on the areas where it could perform well, resetting its new-generation products business and creating an opportunity for some geographical divestments.–George Gay