Leaf tobacco remains in short supply.
By Stefanie Rossel
Tobacco remains a scarce commodity. Universal Leaf estimates world leaf production, excluding China, at 4.66 billion green kg in 2023, down from 4.86 billion kg in 2022. This year, the merchant expects global production to rise to 5.2 billion kg, but there are issues that might alter this forecast.
“The undersupply of leaf tobacco remains the key global trend,” says Ivan Genov, manager of tobacco industry analysis at the International Tobacco Growers’ Association (ITGA). “Leading tobacco purchasing companies continue to report very low levels of uncommitted stock. In general, sales go very fast. In Brazil, the flue-cured Virginia (FCV) crop was almost completely sold by the end of April, which is unusual (see “The Great Scramble,” Tobacco Reporter, May 2024). In Zimbabwe, export figures from early May are up significantly from last year. Burley is also in short supply.
“The market in Malawi, one of the key countries for the variety, opened on April 15. In the U.S., our members see strong short-term opportunities in burley. They also believe that the supply shortage will recover, but more slowly than in the past, which also means that prices should improve to meet these market shortages.”
At least the rapid rise in production cost that has been plaguing growers in recent years appears to be leveling off in some origins. While costs remain a concern, Genov has seen positive developments in key markets. “For example, in Brazil, where cost of production for FCV and burley was going upward of 30 percent year-on-year, for the current crop that is nearly fully realized on the market, the increase is limited to single digits,” he observes. “This goes in line with global inflationary and commodity price dynamics, where it seems we are now past the highest points. This being said, the pressure on growers remains. Even though such drastic increases are tamed, the new price levels remain at the higher end.”
At the same time, tobacco prices in most of the leading markets have gone up in 2023–2024. “Growers are positive about this dynamic, but their margins remain thin,” says Genov. “Additional efforts need to be made to increase these margins. ITGA is currently undertaking a big research effort in collecting information from influential tobacco-growing regions in finding the so-called game changers that could increase farmer productivity and improve the long-term prospects of growers.”
More than two years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, other factors worrying farmers in 2023 have also eased, according to Genov. “In the early stages of the conflict, there was a real uncertainty related to agrifood commodities, especially in Africa,” he says. “The continent has a big exposure to some essential products coming from Russia and Ukraine. However, our associations in Africa have recently reported that fertilizer supply has immensely improved, and pricing has stabilized, with some reduction. Navigating complicated geopolitical pressures in the future will likely keep the situation vulnerable.”
China Boosts Production
Global FCV production, excluding China, rose to an estimated 1.92 billion kg in 2023, up from 1.64 billion kg in 2022, according to Universal Leaf’s data. For 2024, the company expects a slight drop to an estimated 1.88 billion kg.
The world’s burley production stood at an estimated 443 million kg in 2023, up from 354 million kg one year previously. Production is anticipated to increase to an estimated 447 million kg in 2024.
Oriental production declined to 109 million kg in 2023 from 116 million kg in 2022. The volume is expected to decrease even further to 104 million kg this year.
Dark air-cured production rose from 115 million kg in 2022 to an estimated 119 kg in 2023. However, Universal expects production to fall to 109 million kg in 2024.
With an FCV production of 1.97 billion kg in 2023, rising to an estimated 1,971 kg in 2024, according to the ITGA, China remains the leading tobacco-cultivating country by far. In addition to its huge FCV production, the country in 2023 grew 9 million kg of burley, anticipated to increase to 10 million tons this year.
“China is a very restrictive market,” says Genov. “Nevertheless, available data shows that production is growing—approaching 2,000 million kg. In FCV, this represents approximately half of the global market. What is more interesting is that after Covid-19, China is continuously growing tobacco imports. In 2023, the country imported over 180 million kg of tobacco. China also resumed buying U.S. FCV, which has an impact on local growers. Chinese demand is likely to remain strong based on local consumption patterns.”
The U.S.-China trade war heavily impacted the flue-cured tobacco leaf trade. In 2019 and 2020, China imported 100,000 kg and 0 kg of FCV, respectively, from the U.S., according to TMA’s Tobacco Trade Barometer. From 2021, imports began to rise back to pre-trade war levels. By 2023, Chinese FCV imports from the U.S. reached almost 25 million kg.
Adverse Weather
In the most recent season, key leaf-growing markets fared very differently in terms of leaf volume, quality and prices. Brazil’s 2023–2024 crop will be at least 14 percent smaller than the country’s previous harvest, Genov points out. “The initial estimate of Afubra, the Brazilian tobacco growers’ association, was for approximately 522 million kg—475 million kg of FCV and 39 million kg of burley,” he says. “All tobacco-growing areas in South Brazil were severely affected by adverse weather conditions. So, the final quantities produced are likely to be even lower—around 460 [million kg] to 470 million kg of FCV and 35 million kg of burley.”
Brazil’s reduced volumes were a result of excessive rains, induced by the El Nino weather phenomenon, during the growing season. Adverse climate conditions are likely to impact next year’s harvest as well. In late April and early May, Brazil’s principal tobacco-growing state, Rio Grande do Sul, suffered its worst flooding in 80 years, temporarily bringing tobacco operations to a halt and causing some farmers to lose seedlings.
Zimbabwe, by contrast, suffered from El Nino-induced drought. “As a result, a state of disaster was declared in early April,” says Genov. “Last year’s record FCV production volume of 297 million kg is unlikely to be matched, with a level of around 250 million kg much more likely. Last year’s record crop was also marked by a reduction in the average price for tobacco, particularly bad news for small-scale growers that are faced with issues, including a high level of indebtedness. This year, pricing is better—showing a double-digit increase compared to last year.”
In the U.S., the season was stable, observes Genov. According to the ITGA, the country produced 142.9 million kg of FCV, 29.3 million kg of burley, 16.1 million kg of fire-cured and 5.5 million kg of dark air-cured tobacco as well as 2.3 million kg of cigar filler in 2023. “Market conditions will continue to weaken for dark-fired tobacco due to the growing pouch market,” predicts Genov. “Stronger short-term opportunities exist for burley. Separately, U.S. growers expect to be positioned well to benefit from company ESG activities as their tobacco is regarded as very high quality and does not suffer from sustainability-related issues present in other markets. However, alternative crops are offering greater opportunities for growers, and the continuation of tobacco farming is a real issue.”
African Upswing
Malawi, the world’s leading producer of burley, sold 120.5 million kg of leaf tobacco in 2023 against 85 million in the previous year. Burley accounted for 103 million kg of this figure. “Average pricing was up to $2.35 per kilogram compared to $2.14 per kilogram in the year before,” says Genov. “Big global demand for burley against a short supply in recent years pushed up demand and therefore competition on the market. Entry of two more buying companies further increased the competition. The recently started 2024 season so far offers better prices to growers. Ten days after the start of sales, average burley prices exceed $2.60 per kilogram.”
A remarkable jump in leaf production took place in Tanzania, where yield was increased from around 60 million kg in 2022 to 122 million kg in 2023. As of December 2022, Tanzania had earned $316 million from tobacco exports. According to local press reports, the country aims to sell $400 million this season. Tanzania’s recent production figures make it Africa’s second-largest producer after Zimbabwe and ahead of Malawi, Mozambique (65.8 million kg), Zambia (44 million kg; also see “Brand Zambia,” page 30) and Uganda (13 million kg).
“The importance of Tanzania in the global leaf market is growing significantly,” Genov explains. “The country’s minister of agriculture, Husein Bashe, recently noted that for the 2024–2025 season, they are optimistic to reach 200 million kg against the target of 300 million kg by 2025–2026. He targets the No. 1 producer place in Africa, so Tanzania’s ambitions are now well known.”
And it’s not just leaf traders who are keeping an eye on Tanzania. In February 2024, Philip Morris International announced that it would build a cigarette factory in Morogoro and buy at least 12 million kg of Tanzanian tobacco annually over the next five years. The company has not purchased leaf from Tanzania since 2017. Operations are expected to commence toward the end of this year.
Genov emphasizes significance of growers to the supply chain and industry. “Often neglected, their role remains absolutely pivotal,” he says. “ITGA is working hard to defend the legitimate interests of tobacco growers, and we are actively supporting them to ensure the long-term survival of rural communities around the world.”
One example of ITGA’s efforts was to prepare its members for the EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (see “Diluted Diligence,” Tobacco Reporter, June 2024), which was adopted by the European Parliament on April 24. “The directive will require the whole tobacco supply chain to address human rights and environmental concerns,” says Genov. “We conducted a survey among participants in our last year’s annual meeting focusing on the directive. A lot of them were worried about the necessary transformation that would lead to more pressure on them. Nevertheless, half of the participants have already taken proactive measures in preparation for it while only a quarter have not, showing that more adjustments will have to be made. Undoubtedly, making the entire process more transparent will have positive effects.”
