Testing the Waters
Philip Morris International is getting ready to reintroduce IQOS in the US.
By Stefanie Rossel
During its 2024 second-quarter financial results presentation on July 23, Philip Morris International at last confirmed the long-awaited reintroduction of its IQOS heated-tobacco product (HTP) in the U.S. In the fourth quarter of this year, the company will start test marketing its IQOS3 device in Austin, Texas, according to PMI Chief Financial Officer Emmanuel Babeau.
A large-scale launch of IQOS, he stressed, will take place only after the Food and Drug Administration has authorized PMI’s most recent model, IQOS Iluma, which the company expects to happen in the second half of 2025.
The company submitted premarket tobacco product applications (PMTAs) and modified-risk tobacco product (MRTP) applications for Iluma in October 2023. Until Iluma’s FDA marketing authorization, Babeau said, the company will sell its IQOS3 model in only a few U.S. cities, primarily to fine-tune its approach in anticipation of the nationwide introduction of IQOS Iluma.
Once it has secured FDA approval for Iluma, the company will apply the IQOS marketing strategy that has been successful internationally, with some tweaks for the U.S. market. Among other things, this will involve engaging with consumers to explain the product, creating a dedicated sales force and setting up its own points of sale.
The launch will be PMI’s second attempt to establish IQOS in the U.S. In April 2019, the company assigned the exclusive commercialization rights of the brand to Altria, which then launched IQOS in Atlanta and Richmond in the fourth quarter of 2019. One-and-a-half years later, IQOS was available in Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina. But plans for further commercialization were interrupted when the International Trade Commission (ITC) upheld a claim by BAT that IQOS products infringed two patents owned by British Tobacco America Group.
In September 2021, the ITC ordered Philip Morris and Altria to stop importing and selling IQOS models 2.4, 3 and 3 Duo and their respective heat sticks. PMI then agreed to pay Altria $2.7 billion to take back the U.S. commercialization rights of IQOS as of April 30, 2024. In February 2024, PMI and BAT resolved all ongoing intellectual property disputes related to the former company’s HTP and vapor products.
In 2020 and 2022, the FDA issued modified-risk granted orders for IQOS model 2.4 and model 3, respectively, as well as for three heat stick variants. These orders are valid for a fixed period. To continue marketing the MRTPs after the authorized term, the company in May 2024 applied to renew its IQOS3 exposure modification order.
IQOS is the only HTP in the U.S. that has been granted not only a PMTA but also MRTP authorization.
Market With Potential
PMI’s selection of Austin for its 2024 pilot may be a smart move, according to Pieter Vorster, managing director of Idwala Research. “Austin is known for having a vibrant tech industry, attracting young, tech-savvy people open to new technologies and innovation,” he says. “I suspect that the regulatory environment might also be somewhat less restrictive. Furthermore, PMI likely wanted to have a clean slate concerning product awareness.”
Furthermore, Texas has a low cigarette tax rate, and IQOS will be taxed there as cigarettes, which will give PMI a clue how the product would perform when taxed similarly to cigarettes, according to TobaccoIntelligence. A progressive university town in an otherwise conservative state, the city also provides a unique variety of demographics. “This likely means that PMI will be able to assess IQOS’ attractiveness to an array of adult testers in a small area,” says Vorster.
Expectations are high for IQOS’ nationwide rollout. Euromonitor expects the market for smokeless tobacco and smokeless alternatives to increase from $23.49 billion in 2022 to $32.05 billion in 2027, eating into the share of traditional cigarettes. The company predicts that the value of cigarettes, which currently account for most tobacco product sales, will drop by 30 percent from $97.80 billion to $68.37 billion during that period. Investors are waiting to see whether PMI can create a heated-tobacco market in a country where vapes dominate the sales of electronic nicotine-delivery systems.
Vorster is optimistic, noting that the U.S. with its nearly 30 million smokers is significant for PMI’s transition strategy toward a smoke-free future. “The U.S. is one of the largest and most profitable markets for nicotine products globally,” he says. “Since PMI has no presence in cigarettes, it won’t be cannibalizing its own cigarette business. IQOS is the only HTP in the U.S. that has been granted not only a PMTA but also MRTP authorization by the FDA. Furthermore, very few vaping products have been given PMTAs, although this benefit is clouded by the rampant sales of illicit disposable vapes.”
PMI aims to capture 10 percent of U.S. tobacco and HTP unit volume by 2030. While he does not consider the 10 percent target overly ambitious, Vorster lists a few caveats. “Vapers are unlikely to switch to an HTP as they would view it as a regressive step, closer to going back to smoking,” he says. “However, this could be influenced by the regulatory environment. If the current pace of PMTAs for vaping products is maintained and the sale of illicit, disposable vapes can be reduced significantly—which is unlikely in my view—then some vapers might be motivated to switch to IQOS. In the absence of what I described, new IQOS consumers will likely come from the smoking population, where the relatively high average nicotine content of cigarettes sold in the U.S. represents a significant hurdle for HTPs and, in particular, for the IQOS products that are currently authorized in the U.S.”
If the U.S. bans menthol cigarettes, notes Vorster, the smokers of those products could represent a significant potential source of new IQOS consumers, provided IQOS’ menthol variants are allowed to stay on the market.
Stepping Up Production
In its second-quarter results, PMI estimated that more than 36 million people globally use the company’s smoke-free products. In the first half of 2024, PMI’s volume growth was driven by smoke-free products. The company shipped 68.7 billion HTP consumables units, an increase of 16.8 percent versus the previous year. This compares to 300.8 billion cigarettes, which grew by a mere 0.1 percent year-on-year. Shipments of oral smoke-free products increased 27.4 percent compared to 2023, up to 8.4 billion units. Zyn, PMI’s modern oral nicotine product, which became part of its portfolio through the company’s 2022 acquisition of Swedish Match, has grown exponentially and now dominates the U.S. nicotine pouch category. The product is so popular that PMI has been struggling to keep up with demand.
However, Zyn has also attracted regulatory scrutiny. In response to a subpoena from the District of Columbia attorney, PMI in June suspended online sales of flavored Zyn variants on its U.S. website. In March, a law group in California filed a lawsuit against the company, claiming that PMI is targeting children and young adults with its flavored nicotine pouches.
“Given the current trajectory and historical parallels with Juul, Zyn’s future will involve navigating through heightened regulatory scrutiny and social challenges,” says Vorster. “PMI’s ability to adapt its strategies, ensure regulatory compliance and address public concerns will be pivotal. If PMI can successfully manage these issues, Zyn could stabilize and continue to grow, albeit at a potentially slower pace. However, if the regulatory and legal pressures intensify, PMI might face significant hurdles that could hinder Zyn’s market expansion and profitability.”
Swedish Match filed for a PMTA for Zyn in March 2020, but as of August 2024, the FDA had not decided on this application. “The delay in the FDA’s response to Zyn’s PMTA is likely due to a combination of high application volumes, resource constraints and the complexity of the review process,” says Vorster. “Current issues such as social backlash, regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges will significantly impact the FDA’s decision, potentially leading to more stringent regulations and conditions for approval. The FDA’s continued reliance on a scientific study that concluded that nicotine is harmful to developing brains means that products that are perceived to have youth appeal will find it hard to get approved as ‘for the protection of public health.’”
While the regulatory approval process is outside its control, PMI has started tackling the product shortages by investing in production. On July 16, the company announced that it would invest $600 million to open a manufacturing facility in Aurora, Colorado, to produce Zyn pouches. The plant is expected to start preliminary operations in late 2025 and regular production in 2026. It will create 500 jobs. PMI is also increasing production of Zyn at its Owensboro, Kentucky site. Apart from meeting U.S. demand, the investments will help create capacity for export, the company said.
