Author: Taco Tuinstra

Difficult Dynamics

Photo: Taco Tuinstra
The oriental leaf business struggles with adverse weather conditions and farmer attrition.
By Stefanie Rossel
“Complex” is probably the word that best describes the prevailing situation for classical oriental tobacco. In 2023, the sector again struggled with adverse weather conditions and farmer retention.
“A shared challenge faced by all countries in the current season is the impact of adverse weather conditions,” comments Stelios Grigoriadis, regional director of Europe at Alliance One International (AOI).
“The crop encountered difficulties early on with an extended rainy season, reducing transplanted acreage. Subsequently, an exceptionally dry and hot summer exacerbated the situation, resulting in volume losses for the industry ranging from 10 percent to 30 percent in specific countries. These weather-related challenges have been a common denominator in the diminished crop volumes across the region.”
The current crop volumes in the four principal cultivating countries for classical oriental tobacco, comprised of Turkiye, Greece, Bulgaria and North Macedonia, will likely to be down, says Grigoriadis, marking a departure from the trends observed in the preceding two years to three years. “This decline is attributed to different factors influencing each country’s production landscape.”
AOI emphasizes that its production estimates provide only a snapshot of the current expectations, adding that external variables may play a significant role in shaping the results. The company expects market leader Turkiye to produce 50,400 tons this season compared with 51,320 tons in 2022 and more than 55,000 tons under typical weather conditions.
AOI anticipates 37,500 tons of the Izmir variety, basically flat from the 37,450 tons recorded in the previous year. It projects the Samsun crop to decline from 3,575 tons in 2022 to 3,000 tons in 2023.
Basma dropped from 1,645 tons in the 2022 crop to 1,400 tons in the current season while Turkish Prilep increased from 850 tons in 2022 to 2,250 tons in 2023. East Izmir declined from 7,800 tons in 2022 to 6,250 tons in the current season.
Weather conditions played a crucial role in determining the quality of the different varieties. Izmir experienced a negative impact on quality compared to previous years, primarily due to the hot and dry summer conditions. “This reflects a deviation from the standards observed in earlier crops,” says Grigoriadis.
By contrast, the quality of Samsun and Basma was positively impacted. “The warm and favorable weather conditions during the curing period have contributed to an improvement in the quality of these varieties,” observes Grigoriadis. “This positive influence underscores the importance of climate factors during critical stages of cultivation.”
The East Izmir variety remained stable in terms of quality, according to Grigoriadis.

Photo: Prestige Leaf
Lack of Labor
Projections for the 2023 classical oriental crop in Greece vary. Dora Gleoudis, managing director of Greek leaf tobacco exporter Nikos Gleoudis Kavex, expects it to amount to 6,500 tons, comprising 4,300 tons of Basma and 2,200 tons of Katerini. This compares to a total crop of 8,000 tons in the 2022 season. “The quantity reduction is due to labor shortages,” says Gleoudis. “However, the crop quality in all areas is higher compared to last year’s, favored by weather conditions.”
Nikos Tzoumas, managing director of Missirian, anticipates a crop of 5,700 tons divided between 3,700 tons of Basma and 2,000 tons of Katerini. “The Greek oriental crop decreased overall by almost 30 percent,” he says. “The reasons for this decrease, in sequence of importance, are abandonment of cultivation, absence of external workforce and low field yields due to dry weather.”
The Katerini crop volume dropped by 35 percent, according to Tzoumas. “Eighty percent of this decrease was due to less cultivated land—that is, farmers who abandoned cultivation and farmers who decreased their cultivated land due to absence of workers—and 20 percent due [to] lower leaf yield following dry weather conditions,” he says. “Basma production decreased by 25 percent, caused mainly by farmers who abandoned cultivation.”
Tzoumas agrees that the quality of this year’s crop is very good. “Transplanting was accomplished under rainy conditions,” he says. “Later in the season, the extreme heat wave during July and the total absence of rainfall for four months stressed the plants and resulted in small, ripe and bodied leaves.”
Bulgaria also experienced a significant reduction in volume. According to AOI, the country is expected to harvest approximately 3,200 tons of classical oriental tobacco in 2023. Like Greece, Bulgaria has struggled with farmer attrition and unfavorable weather conditions. “The attrition of farmers raises concerns about the sustainability and resilience of the tobacco industry in these countries,” says Grigoriadis.

Photo: AOI
Up and Coming
North Macedonia appears to be a rising star among oriental-producing countries. Although its volume is projected to reach 16,000 tons in 2023, down from 21,000 tons in 2022, its farmer base remains committed. The number of growers cultivating Prilep has remained relatively stable in recent years. Yaka volumes, meanwhile, have declined to 150 tons this season from 248 tons in 2022.
Hot and arid conditions during summer in Prilep, the center of North Macedonian tobacco growing, significantly reduced the crop quantity. However, the abundant sunshine also positively impacted the quality of the Prilep crop, according to Grigoriadis. “Particularly in the middle and upper harvests, the overall quality of this crop can be characterized as above average.”
Rising Production Costs
In addition to the already mentioned challenges, oriental tobacco growers have had to cope with the still-simmering Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. According to Gleoudis, the war in Ukraine has dramatically increased the prices of growers’ inputs as well as labor costs. On top of that, rising prices for other crops, such as corn or cotton, have prompted some growers to abandon the golden leaf. Tzoumas notes that the war in Ukraine and the subsequent economic sanctions against Russia have affected exports to Russian manufacturers.
Tobacco farmers in North Macedonia, meanwhile, have been struggling with continuously rising labor expenses, according to Grigoriadis. “This is a result of both the government-mandated annual increase in the minimum wage and a labor shortage stemming from increased population migration,” he explains.
Turkiye, too, copes with the fallout from these crises. High inflation coupled with uncertainties in the pricing of crop inputs such as fuel, fertilizer and chemicals has created an environment of uncertainty. “The uncertain pricing of other crops has led some farmers to switch crops in the short term, disrupting planning and creating inefficiencies in the production of alternative crops,” says Grigoriadis.
“This, in turn, results in fluctuations in farmer income, further increasing the challenges faced by those in the oriental sector. The uncertain and volatile conditions in the wake of these crises not only impact the financial aspects for farmers but also disrupt long-term planning. The uncertainty in input pricing and the unpredictability of crop prices create challenges in decision-making, affecting the overall efficiency of tobacco production.”

Photo courtesy of Nikos Tzoumas
Still in Undersupply
While there have been shortages in all tobacco varieties, buyers of classical oriental tobacco, in particular, have been suffering from undersupply over the past two years. A return to balance in supply and demand is possible but depends on several factors, according to Grigoriadis.
The challenges posed by weather-related uncertainties may require growers to adjust their agricultural practices and embrace new technologies along with risk mitigation strategies. “Collaborative efforts among stakeholders, including farmers, state institutions and industry players may also contribute to a more resilient and sustainable supply chain for classical oriental varieties,” says Grigoriadis.
“Supply and demand for oriental tobaccos are and will remain unbalanced,” predicts Gleoudis. “Regretfully, options of mechanizing the oriental tobacco crop have not proven successful.” She is referring to the HMO oriental tobacco harvesting machine developed by VIT and Philip Morris International that was trialed in Greece in the summer of 2020 to reduce farmers’ reliance on manual labor.
“The opportunity to make the oriental tobacco cultivation a sustainable and mechanized crop was lost five years ago when the buyers did not embrace the HMO and the tobacco which was produced as such,” says Tzoumas. “Ten years of hard work by many individuals, five versions of improved HMO models, a new pure Basma seed with increased field yields registered in Greece and many young farmers with enthusiasm were all gone! At that time, even the farmers were ready to invest as they had understood sustainability as a tool for security and balance for their product and their life.”
His forecast for the Greek oriental crop in 2024 is therefore pessimistic. “A further decrease in production is projected to happen in the 2024 crop,” says Tzoumas. “Farmers will keep on shifting from manual to mechanized crops, missing the work force needed for oriental tobacco, and to food crops, with the latter being in higher demand.” Aggravating the situation, the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy 2023–2027 significantly reduced the funds allocated to tobacco growers by adopting a flat rate per hectare, which is not in the favor of small holdings common in oriental tobacco farming.
Gleoudis expects Greek and Bulgarian oriental production to remain stable in 2024. “Depending on weather conditions, North Macedonia could increase its production back to 22,000 tons.”
Grigoriadis shares this prognosis for North Macedonia. “This optimistic estimate emphasizes the significance of weather conditions in determining the success of the crop,” he says. “It also indicates a potential for North Macedonia to maximize its production capacity, provided that external factors align favorably. However, it is essential to remain attentive to potential challenges and fluctuations in supply/demand dynamics that may influence the actual outcome.”
Given favorable weather conditions, Turkiye’s 2024 oriental crop could increase by between 5 percent and 10 percent, according to Grigoriadis. “The competitiveness of oriental tobacco against other rival crops and the careful management of production costs are key considerations in shaping the final outcome.”
Stefanie Rossel is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial contributor. An experienced trade journalist, she combines sharp reporting skills with in-depth knowledge of the tobacco and vapor industries. Prior to joining Tobacco Reporter, Stefanie was editor-in-chief at Tobacco Journal International, where she worked for a decade. Fluent in English, German and French, Stefanie covers tobacco news around the world. She is based in Germany.

January 2, 2024
Putting Faith in Cessation

Image: doidam10
The role of religion in encouraging smoking cessation
By Cheryl K. Olson
The start of a new year is a perennially popular marker for initiating change. This includes fresh attempts to quit smoking. To that end, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control website features a multilingual “New Year, New Possibilities: Start Living a Smokefree Life Today!” advice and resources page.
A study of 2018–2020 social media posts expected to find the Covid-19 pandemic linked to more posts on quitting. Nope. Instead, New Year’s resolutions made a difference.
There’s nothing magic about a new year, of course. But setting some sort of targeted quit date does seem to increase motivation to follow through. A date in the near future—say, a couple of weeks away—seems best. Making a public commitment to quit, and preparing coping aids and skills, may also help.
The best thing about New Year’s resolutions is that they provide another chance to try. Research suggests that encouraging more quit attempts adds up to more success. Finding ways to do this is especially important for people who aren’t particularly motivated to quit in the near future.
One often-overlooked path to encourage the discouraged or unmotivated to make quit attempts comes from religious observations. Major world religions have days every year where smoking is discouraged or forbidden.
“Jews don’t smoke for 25 hours on Yom Kippur,” says Derek Yach, a physician who focused on smoking cessation at the World Health Organization and the Foundation for a Smoke-Free World. “Muslims refrain during daylight for the month of Ramadan. Some Christians stop during Lent.”
“This raises the question of how people who smoke can continue quitting post the fast,” Yach adds. “How could you build on that?”
The role of religion in encouraging smoking cessation deserves a closer look. And what, if anything, do we know about how major religions feel about tobacco harm reduction, including vaping?
Religion and Smoking: The Basics
“Systematic evidence of religious affiliation differences in tobacco use is surprisingly limited,” says a recent paper on religion’s role in smoking and vaping. One problem is distinguishing between the effects of religious affiliation, general religiosity and specific beliefs. Overall, studies show that people with no religious affiliation are more prone to smoking. Faiths with clear anti-tobacco positions, such as Seventh-day Adventists and Latter-day Saints, are less likely to smoke.
Things get murky beyond that. Regular church attendance is often linked to lower smoking, for example. People more engaged with religion may have more nonsmokers in their social networks. Religious doctrines feed into social norms that affect smoking behavior.
Of course, the texts of most major religions were written before tobacco spread across the globe. This means that religious scholars have had to interpret those texts and issue decrees regarding how smoking (and more recently, vaping) fits or clashes with their doctrines.
Islam is one example. Until the early 20th century, according to an article in the BMJ, most Muslim jurists did not believe that smoking had any negative health effects. Some thought it might even aid digestion or reduce stress. As evidence of health risks increased, smoking became discouraged (mukrooh). Some scholars and institutions went further and declared smoking to be prohibited (haram).
Smoking is not explicitly banned by Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism or Buddhism. But religious values that promote avoiding deliberate harm to the body, and disapprove of addiction, mitigate against smoking.
At times, religion has been a smoking promoter. The website of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops notes that the Catholic Church played a major role in bringing tobacco to Italy and spreading its use. In 2017, Pope Francis, stating that “No profit can be legitimate if it puts lives at risk,” announced plans to ban Vatican cigarette sales. The Vatican City State reportedly earned €10 million ($10.97 million) per year in profit from smokes sold (sans Italian taxes) through duty-free shops to its citizens and employees, who could purchase 50 or more discounted packs a month.
Yach has long been intrigued about the potential of religious organizations to combat smoking. “In 1999, when I was at WHO, I convened a meeting through the World Council of Churches,” he recalls. Despite the name, the council represented a range of major religions. The meeting focused on what religions say about tobacco control and smoking.
“What were the commonalities that suggested they supported tobacco control?” he wondered at the time. “We found there were three: Thou shalt not kill; thou shalt not kill others; and you should tell the truth.”
Yach has recently returned to studying the issue of faith and health, with a new emphasis on tobacco harm reduction. Religious doctrines are still unsettled on that point. However, Yach notes that in most religions, “to save a life” is the highest value and ought to be supportive of harm reduction.

In most religions, “to save a life” is the highest value and ought to be supportive of harm reduction.
Derek Yach, global health expert
Hitting Pause
A review of studies on religiosity and smoking cessation found that few actually focused on quitting. There are a handful of published studies on smoking and Ramadan. In most Muslim-majority nations, religion and culture discourage smoking during the daytime fast, both in public and at home. Many Muslims perceived quitting smoking to be easier during Ramadan.
One Malaysian study of 61 men who smoked found decreased Fagerstrom nicotine dependence scores during and shortly after Ramadan. The Ramadan environment, with most Muslims abstaining from smoking, was credited with helping men to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked or to stop smoking completely. The authors suggested that cessation support from health professionals might boost this effect.
During Ramadan in 2015, a cessation effort targeted Malay men working in public offices who smoked. The intervention group got a booklet educating on smoking-related health effects and religious rulings as well as practical and motivational tips and religious encouragements. All participants had reduced nicotine dependence scores and saliva cotinine levels during Ramadan, and these remained significant for the intervention group after Ramadan.
A study in Croatia focused on the first day of Lent, which some Christian groups observe for roughly six weeks leading up to the Easter holiday. Lent is a period of self-denial, which might involve fasting or giving up favored activities. A television and radio campaign for this “smoke out day” led to high awareness, and a quarter of people in the study abstained from smoking for 24 hours. People with lower levels of education were more likely to participate.
Religion Meets Technology
Religion-based smoking cessation efforts could potentially reach groups that conventional methods have failed to help. In the U.S., older adults are more likely to attend religious services, and their smoking rates have been stagnant for the past two decades. The combination of faith communities and new technologies is particularly intriguing.
One recent study sent twice-daily text messages (half religiously tailored) to 50 Somali Muslim men in Minnesota during Ramadan. Research participants saw the messages as appropriate and encouraging, and they smoked fewer cigarettes per day. Seven quit smoking.
A published protocol for a new study describes a “Christian faith-based Facebook intervention for smoking cessation in rural communities.” Researchers plan to create and test a private moderated online group that uses peer and pastoral support, accessible to people who lack access to city resources.
Ideally, we will eventually see studies that add harm reduction innovations, such as e-cigarettes, reduced-risk shisha and heated-tobacco products, to this mix of faith and tech.
Religion and Harm Reduction
Religious perceptions regarding reduced-harm nicotine options, such as vaping, are still evolving. Research on vaping and religion is extremely limited. Several studies found that religiosity bears no relationship to e-cigarette use among teens and young adults.
The Malaysian study that looked at ways to encourage smoking cessation during Ramadan in 2015 was disrupted by the “vaping phenomenon,” with some subjects in both study groups starting to vape. Because vaping was not part of the protocol, it was ignored. A 2023 paper on e-cigarettes in Malaysia grouped “e-cigs, electronic shisha and shisha pens” as haram, along with cigarette smoking, due to perceived health risks.
Perceptions of effects on health may be important. For example, a 2019 article on Judaism and e-cigarettes gives multiple perceived reasons for prohibiting their use, including that e-cigarettes are dangerous, are a gateway to smoking and are addictive. Further, “even if medical literature has not firmly and definitively established the long-term dangers of e-cigarette use independent of combustible cigarettes, the suspicion that these products are dangerous is sufficient to prohibit their use.”
Clearly, strong evidence that reduced-harm nicotine products are a positive for health would be needed to overcome these concerns. Spreading credible information, such as the Cochrane review showing that vaping can successfully promote smoking cessation, might show that reduced-risk alternatives can fit with religious doctrines.
Encouragingly, two recent studies (with the same lead author) looked favorably at e-cigarette use during Ramadan. One looked at vaping preferences and reasons for using e-cigarettes in the United Arab Emirates. A majority reported starting vaping to quit smoking. Over half reported no withdrawal symptoms during the Ramadan fasting time. The second study had a similar focus and findings but took place in Jordan. It noted that “Ramadan offers a good opportunity for smokers to quit, as the reported physical and psychological e-cig withdrawal symptoms were found to be relatively weak.” In both studies, e-cigarettes were accurately perceived as less risky than smoking.
Faith-Based Harm Reduction
The challenge now, as Yach sees it, is to think through how to explain harm reduction in clear and meaningful ways to faith-based groups. “People say, well, we don’t want to get into religion. But health is not merely the absence of disease. And the word ‘spiritual’ should be included alongside mental, physical and social well-being.”
As a parallel, Yach points to the success of faith-based HIV/AIDS programs run through churches: “What’s at the core of an AIDS program? Harm reduction.” Given the billions of people who identify with religious groups, he says, the potential benefit could be huge.
Cheryl K. Olson is a California-based public health researcher who specializes in behavioral health issues and consults on tobacco product behaviors via McKinney Regulatory Science Advisors. She spent 15 years on the faculty of Harvard Medical School.

January 2, 2024
McKinney Specialty Labs launched

Willie McKinney
Jan. 1, 2024, marked the official launch of McKinney Specialty Labs, a scientific organization with expertise in testing nicotine and other aerosolized products.
“We are excited to announce the launch of McKinney Specialty Labs and to offer our scientific knowledge and regulatory expertise to support the growing market of inhalable products across different industries,” said Willie McKinney, CEO. “We believe that our commitment to science, quality, innovation and customer service makes us a preferred aerosol testing provider for companies of all sizes.”
McKinney Specialty Labs provides a wide range of testing and consulting services to ensure that product quality and performance are maintained throughout the life cycle of the product: chemical analysis, physical testing, microbiological testing, toxicology testing and regulatory compliance.
McKinney Specialty Labs employs nearly 100 experienced scientists and technicians with expertise in aerosol science, analytical chemistry, toxicology and regulatory compliance. The lab is equipped with state-of-the-art equipment and adheres to strict quality standards.
January 2, 2024
Organized Skepticism
Image: Mintoboru
How can the science of tobacco and nicotine serve the public good?
By Clive Bates
There are almost as many definitions of science as there are scientists, but one that I like is “organized skepticism.” This is one of four norms of the scientific ethos proposed by sociologist Robert K. Merton in 1942. Robert May, the former U.K. government chief scientist, explained organized skepticism as “a journey, over time, toward contingent understanding guided by experimental tests and sceptical questioning.” Skepticism underpins the scientific process, and uncertainty is a pervasive, permanent and evolving feature of scientific understanding.
How well are we living up to this ideal? I will break science down into five categories: exploration, observation, interpretation, intervention and values.
Firstly, “exploration.” This is about which research questions are asked—or not asked—in the first place and why. In many ways, this is the most critical part of the scientific process because it can set, shape or sink a policy agenda. It should be driven by organized curiosity, the alter ego of organized skepticism. But too often, the control over the questions is governed by forces other than curiosity in the public interest. Why has there been so little curiosity about the countries with the lowest smoking rates or most rapid declines, such as Sweden? The halving of cigarette sales in Japan in just 10 years has attracted minimal interest (though with some notable exceptions), but why? Are researchers flocking to New Zealand to understand the dramatic decline in Maori smoking driven by the uptake of vaping? No, the research community has been distracted by its favored “endgame” measures.
Another example is the expenditure of at least $100 million researching “very low-nicotine cigarettes,” mainly through a series of trials. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s enthusiasm for rulemaking in this area drove the research. But after a company, 22nd Century, put these products on the market, there was minimal interest in understanding the consumer reaction. Why? Surely, this should inform the nicotine rulemaking process. Poor questions can exclude important issues or contain false, unsurfaced assumptions. For example, the U.K. recently asked the research community “What can we do to reduce youth vaping?” But do they want to reduce youth vaping if it increases adult smoking? What about young people who would be smoking if they were not vaping? The question limits the possible answers and excludes much we should be curious about.
A final example is the extraordinary lack of interest in the reasons why there is a demand for nicotine and, therefore, why it is likely to persist. In my view, users experience positive hedonistic, functional and therapeutic effects, which underpin the demand. But curiosity in this area has been suppressed beneath a crude narrative of “addiction.”
Secondly, “observation.” This is the careful business of discovering what is happening through surveys, test measurements, experiments, qualitative studies, etc. Much good work goes on in this area, but it could be far better. Given how much money and public and political concern nicotine attracts, shouldn’t we have better data and faster? The English Smoking Toolkit Survey provides monthly data on nicotine use trends published with only a few weeks of delay between the survey and publication. Why doesn’t every country have a surveillance system like this? Every country has a sizeable share of its population dying from smoking-related diseases; why not have the data to understand the phenomenon? In the energy sector, the International Energy Agency produces in-depth statistics on every aspect of energy use for nearly every country in an advanced Data Explorer. But for nicotine, we have only crude prevalence data and nothing that will show us the evolving trends in nicotine use as it develops and diversifies over the next two decades. The FDA regulates the recreational nicotine market in the United States, yet it has no systematic assessment of how that market is developing. Instead, individual manufacturers must report on their own products. It would be so much better to have one extensive survey, including all the main product types and all those products not authorized but on sale. The FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products receives annual user fees of $712 million yet does not even have a basic and timely picture of the market, including the illicit market, in the products it regulates.
Thirdly, “explanation.” This is where scientists try to determine cause and effect. Did vaping flavors cause teenage vaping? Does vaping cause heart disease? Do more people quit smoking if they have access to vapes, or are vapes a gateway to smoking? Alas, in this domain, skepticism is too often replaced with its inverse, confirmation bias, and its more assertive counterpart, motivated reasoning. There are strong incentives to find or claim causal relationships, even where none exist. Why is it hard to establish causal explanations? I tend to focus on three main issues.
Confounding. One thing appears to be caused by another, but they are both caused by a third factor. If we observe a 50-year-old vaper for signs of illness, how do we account for the effect of several decades of prior smoking? It is almost impossible to make allowances for that. For conditions that arise from cumulative exposure over decades (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or heart disease), it is impossible to isolate the effects of vaping and confounding by prior smoking. Yet, claims are repeatedly made that vaping is a cause of these diseases.
Reverse causation. One thing appears to be caused by another, but the relationship is the other way around. Some studies show that young people who are exposed to vape advertising are more likely to vape. In these studies, “exposure” usually means recall, the ability to remember seeing an advert. But suppose those inclined to vape for other reasons are more interested in vaping ads and more likely to remember them? The vaping causes the recall of advertising, not the reverse.
Poor external validity. The experiment doesn’t adequately reflect reality. Some machine measurements of vaping aerosol show relatively high levels of some toxicants. But they have often been run with power and flow rates that greatly overheat the liquids, creating conditions no users could tolerate. The machine registers a toxic exposure, but no human would ever be exposed to it. In a clinical trial, volunteers with a declared intention to quit are paid to participate. They are given free products and incentivized to use them. But how well does that experiment reflect the impact of a new product on people who buy their cigarettes at a corner shop? Hardly at all. Yet a giant edifice of support for de-nicotinization of cigarettes has been built on such trials. Those affected are more likely to switch to illicit or smoke-free products.
Fourth, “intervention.” This is the science of deciding what to do or what happened after a policy was implemented. Curiosity and skepticism seem to be actively discouraged in this area of tobacco control research, though with exceptions. One of the largest tobacco control interventions ever is the 2019 ban on vapes and heated-tobacco products in India, which earned a World Health Organization medal. Yet almost nothing has been done to discover what happened, and the WHO continues to promote these prohibitions. I think this is because, for many in that field, the policy and law are the outcomes, not their actual effects on behavior and, ultimately, health. Too many scientists are regulatory literalists, believing that people will do what the regulators hope they will. Armed with observations of harm and explanations for its cause, they wrongly believe that intervention is simply a matter of removing the cause with a law. Not so. An intervention is a disturbance of a complex system of human, technological and economic interactions. It is vulnerable to at least three forms of unintended consequences: first, adverse behavior change (a vape flavor ban causes more smoking); second, workarounds (a vape flavor ban causes people to mix their own flavors using food ingredients); third, illicit trade (an informal economy develops, possibly with organized crime groups extending their portfolio). Intervention always requires a systems approach and an economic appraisal to assess the likely outcomes and their cost-effectiveness or value for money. Far too many biomedical scientists trespass into the economic discipline of intervention without the necessary skills and experience.
Fifth, “values.” Politicians often declare they are “led by the science.” But no policies can or should ever be determined by science alone. Values or ethics must have a central role—just because something might work doesn’t make it right or acceptable. For example, if we could show that misleading young people about vaping risks reduced youth vaping, would that be an acceptable policy? Should we intervene to stop smoking in private homes? Should children be separated from parents who smoke? Should smokers be denied healthcare for reasons of contributory negligence? There are boundaries to what we find acceptable, whatever the science tells us might work. But different people have different boundaries.
Clive Bates is the director of Counterfactual Consulting and the former director of Action on Smoking and Health (U.K.).
January 2, 2024
Court Approves Warehouse Monitoring

Image: Alexey Novikov
The South African Revenue Service (SARS) will move forward with installing closed-circuit television cameras at tobacco warehouses, after defeating a legal challenge in the Guateng High Court, reports Daily Maverick.
The surveillance plan was drafted to help plug fiscal gaps due to illicit tobacco trade. The South African government misses out on an estimated ZAR8 billion ($431.06 million) in revenue annually due to tobacco tax evasion.
The Fair Trade Independent Tobacco Association (FITA), representing 80 percent of licensed cigarette manufacturers in Southern Africa took SARS to court in an attempt to stop the installation of the cameras. In two separate applications, 11 tobacco companies sought to prevent SARS from implementing the rule promulgated under the Customs and Excise Act.
The tobacco companies argued that the new rule is unconstitutional and that it was an unjustified violation of the right to privacy, dignity and property.
Acting judge Jacques Minnaar on Dec. 29 rejected their case, arguing, among other things, that companies applied for warehouse licenses in the knowledge that these are conditional on SARS officials having unrestricted access to install cameras.
The companies were all aware of the installation of CCTV cameras at British American Tobacco and Gold Leaf in February 2023, the court added.
January 2, 2024
Ukraine Tobacco Taxes to Match EU’s by 2029

Image: andriano_cz
Ukraine will reform its tobacco and fuel excise taxes, gradually introducing excises minimal for the European Union market over the next five years, reports Interfax.
The country previously aimed to increase its tobacco excise tax rates to the EU’s minimal rates before 2025, but the anticipated windfall has since been eaten away by inflation due to the use of the hryvnia as its base rather than the euro. Under the new strategy, Ukraine’s tobacco excise tax rates will be tied to the euro.
The government expects the measure to generate additional revenue equal to between 1.5 percent and 2.2 percent of GDP.
Ukraine also plans to implement an electronic tracking system for tobacco products and e-liquids.
The 2024-2029 National Revenue Strategy is one of the structural benchmarks of the cooperation program with the International Money Fund that Ukraine pledged to fulfill before the end of 2023.
January 2, 2024
Investors Challenge Juul Bailout

Image: vectortatu
A group of Juul Labs investors is challenging a November 2022 financial bailout by directors Nick Pritzker and Riaz Valani, alleging that the deal benefited insiders at the expense of other investors, reports The Wall Street Journal.
A pioneer in the vaping business, Juul Labs went from dominating the U.S. market to fighting for its survival in a short time. Following its initial success, the company came under regulatory scrutiny over its marketing practices. Thousands of lawsuits alleging the company contributed to an “epidemic” of underage vaping took a toll on the company’s finances.
After the Food and Drug Administration ordered its e-cigarettes off the market and a court stayed the order, Juul began exploring bankruptcy in June 2022.
To avoid bankruptcy, Pritzker and Valani in September 2022 refinanced a Juul term loan and later that fall loaned Juul more money to cover operating costs. Finally, the two directors, along with Juul co-founders James Monsees and Adam Bowen, backstopped a sweeping legal settlement and made an equity investment in Juul.
Juul, after approaching dozens of potential investors, closed a funding round in October 2023 that raised $1.27 billion. That sum included money that entities connected to Pritzker, Valani, and Juul’s two co-founders committed for Juul’s legal settlement and an additional $45 million from the same four investors.
Entities tied to Valani and Pritzker now own nearly half of Juul, while most other investors have had their stakes sharply diluted amid the rescue.
Affiliates of hedge fund D1 Capital Partners and two other investors sued Juul in October 2023 alleging that Pritzker and Valani “leveraged a distressed situation for their own personal gain to the detriment of Juul’s other stakeholders.”
Juul in 2024 aims to raise another $330 million as it fights to keep its existing products on the U.S. market and submits new vaping products for federal authorization.
January 2, 2024
Tobacco Bonds Outperforming Peers

Image: larryhw
Despite declining cigarette sales, U.S. tobacco bonds have done better than the average municipal bond index, according to The Wall Street Journal.
An index of tobacco bonds maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices had a 10-year total return of 134 percent through the middle of December compared with just 34 percent for a general municipal bond index. And between late October and mid-December, the tobacco index rallied by 13 percent as overall bond yields fell.
In 1998, the largest U.S. tobacco companies agreed to pay $206 billion over 25 years to 52 U.S. states and territories in exchange for those jurisdictions giving up future legal claims relating to the cost of treating sick smokers.
At least 21 states or territories, plus local entities within some of them, didn’t want to wait for the money to trickle in, taking it up front and transferring that risk to municipal bond investors.
In the year’s since the Master Settlement Agreement, tobacco bond owners have had to cope with the rise of noncombustible products such as e-cigarettes, which don’t count toward the cash received.
The U.S. government is also threatening to ban menthol cigarettes, which account for about a third of domestic cigarette sales. Excise taxes are depressing demand, as well. The consumer-price index for tobacco products is up by 530 percent since 1997, compared with 93 percent for overall consumer prices.
On the other hand, tobacco companies agreed to an annual inflation adjustment for their payments of at least 3 percent. For many years, that was more than the states would have received if the payments were indexed to actual inflation.
The recent surge in inflation, caused payments to increase by about 20 percent from 2019 to 2020.
January 2, 2024
New Year, New Taxes

Image: Xuejun Li
Tobacco taxes increased in several countries at the start of 2024.
In Sri Lanka, an upward revision in excise duty and value added tax prompted market leader Ceylon Tobacco Co. to raise the price of four cigarette categories by LKR5 ($0.02), LKR15, LRK20 and LKR25 per stick, respectively, reports the Asian Mirror.
The government justified the tax hikes by its desire to boost revenue streams while discouraging tobacco consumption.
Azerbaijan, meanwhile, increased the excise rate for cigarettes from AZN38 ($22.35) per 1,000 sticks to AZN45.5 per 1,000 sticks, according to AzerNews. The excise rate for cigarillos went from AZN43 per 1,000 sticks to AZN45.5 per 1,000 sticks.
E-cigarettes and heated tobacco products are now subject to a tax of AZN16 per 1,000 units, compared with AZN14 per 1,000 units in 2023.
The excise rate for single-use electronic cigarettes, hookahs and their substitutes went up from AZN0.25 manats to AZN2.
In Belgium, as new e-liquid tax took of €0.15 per milliliter took effect on Jan. 1
January 1, 2024
Vapers Hoarding Ahead of Flavor Ban

Image: fotodiya83
Vapers in the Netherlands have been stocking up on products ahead of a flavor ban set to take effect in 2024, reports the NL Times, citing Emil ‘t Hart of the Esigbond Trade Association.
“You see that the consumers are hoarding as much as possible in the specialist stores,” ‘t Hart was quoted as saying. “Especially the real vapers who had switched over from cigarettes are hoarding.”
From Jan. 1, 2024, stores will not be allowed to sell vapes or fluids with flavors like peach, mango or mint. Only products with the taste of tobacco will be permitted. The government hopes its measure will prevent youngsters from starting the nicotine habit and then migrating to combustible products.
‘t Hart believes the measure will be counterproductive, however. “People who have smoked regular cigarettes before turning to e-cigarettes would then be tempted to go back to traditional cigarettes,” he said.
According to ‘t Hart many vapers have been buying their e-cigarettes online from sellers in France, Spain or China, or at physical stores in neighboring Belgium and Germany.
A legal challenge against the flavor ban, filed by the Esigbond in April, is currently making its ways through the courts. ‘t Hart expects a ruling this summer.
December 31, 2023