Category: Also in TR

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  • A Persistent Problem

    A Persistent Problem

    JTI’s Julian Cheung during the 2023 GTNF in Seoul

    The combination of substantial potential profits and low risk that has fueled the illicit cigarette trade is now also driving criminals’ interest in new nicotine products.

    By Stefanie Rossel

    Globally, the illicit cigarette trade is a growing problem. Recently, criminals have expanded into contraband novel nicotine products as well. Tobacco Reporter spoke about this topic with Julian Cheung, who is anti-illicit trade operations director for Japan Tobacco International’s Asia-Pacific region. Before working with JTI, Cheung worked for the Independent Commission Against Corruption in Hong Kong, bringing much experience to the subject of anti-illicit trade. JTI works closely with law enforcement agencies to stop illicit trade, according to Cheung.

    Tobacco Reporter: Could you please provide an overview of the current illicit cigarette market in the Asia-Pacific region? What are the hot spots, and which shifts have you recently observed? 

    Julian Cheung: Over the past decade, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced remarkable economic growth. In parallel, there has been growth in illicit trade. Illicit consumption of tobacco products is primarily fueled by a surge in illicit whites,[1] which are mass-produced in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, China and the United Arab Emirates. These illicit whites often bear well-known brand names within their regions but remain absent from legal retail channels. 

    Smuggling networks use these leaky borders to transport illicit tobacco. The Thailand-Cambodia, Vietnam-China, and Eastern Malaysia-Indonesia borders are typical examples of areas where smugglers skillfully evade checkpoints or capitalize on remote and unmonitored regions for their unlawful activities.

    How does the current illicit cigarette market in the region compare to 10 years ago, and which developments do you anticipate in the near future?

    The market for counterfeit products in Southeast Asia is worth approximately $35 billion annually, with $3.3 billion in tax revenue lost annually from smuggled cigarettes, according to a 2020 report by the EU-ASEAN Business Council and the Transnational Alliance to Combat Illicit Trade.2

    The reality is that criminal organizations see tobacco as a high-profit, low-risk source of revenue. The criminal groups are incredibly adaptable and highly motivated. In Europe, they are moving counterfeit cigarette production closer to high-value markets such as France and the U.K. Another example of how quickly criminals adapt their operations to a changing environment is a steep increase in online sales of illicit cigarettes after pandemic-related restrictions were introduced. Despite the restrictions no longer in place, this shift toward online commerce remains, making it hard for consumers to tell the difference between genuine and counterfeit products.

    The high taxes imposed on tobacco products and then evaded by criminals allow them to gain massive profits at the expense of nations and their citizens. Unfortunately, we do not expect illicit trade issues to be solved completely in a mid-term perspective. However, through innovative strategies, cooperation with international and national law enforcement agencies and a focus on disrupting the financial foundations of these criminal networks, we can curtail the illegal tobacco trade and safeguard our communities and economies.  

    What can legislators do to prevent illicit trade?

    Evidence shows that higher taxes drive consumers to seek cheaper alternative products, such as those sold through illegal trade. We warn governments about the consequences of steep and sudden tax increases.

    For example, in Malaysia in 2015, an excise tax hike drove prices up by 42 percent compared with the previous year. The hike immediately pushed the illegal cigarette market share to 52 percent in 2016 from 37 percent in 2015. The long-term impact was that illegal products constituted almost 60 percent of cigarettes consumed in 2022, and Malaysia remains one of the countries with the highest level of illicit cigarette consumption worldwide.

    At the GTNF last September, you called for greater cooperation between the industry, governments and law enforcement agencies. What could such cooperation look like?

    Illegal trade cannot be dealt with in isolation. We work with governments, regulators, police and customs to crack down on illegal trade and criminality by sharing information and developing specific programs. We do this to protect our customers, businesses and brands.

    Better intelligence sharing between public and private partnerships, including the tobacco industry and law enforcement agencies (LEAs), is critical to tackling illegal trade.

    JTI engages with, and provides information to, law enforcement and other government agencies globally. For example, we have built a good working relationship with the European Anti-Fraud Office and law enforcement agencies across Europe to share industry expertise and information on all aspects of the illegal trade: criminal operations, locations and trends.

    We also provide various LEAs globally with anti-illicit trade awareness sessions, including counterfeit recognition training, information on evolving trends, modus operandi and actionable information on multiple aspects of illegal trade. 

    In August [2023 to] September 2023, my team supported law enforcement in Malaysia and the Philippines, who seized 37 million illicit cigarettes in successful enforcement actions.

    In how far would closer collaboration between individual tobacco companies operating in the region be helpful?

    While tobacco companies in the region already work together, we recognize that we need a more unified approach and cohesive voice so we can make a more significant impact in supporting authorities in the fight against illegal trade. 

    One example of the industry’s collaborative efforts is the Empty Pack survey. This survey, conducted quarterly or annually in selected countries across the Asia-Pacific, helps assess illicit cigarette prevalence in overall tobacco consumption. By evaluating the effectiveness of anti-illicit measures based on facts and evidence, authorities can adopt and fine-tune appropriate regulations to protect consumers and society from criminal groups that deprive state budgets of tax revenues.

    We are also involved in cooperation platforms like the Tobacco Association, which engages with authorities, advocating for protecting rights of legitimates businesses, particularly regarding tobacco-related policies and regulations. Using this platform, we also work with other tobacco companies to exchange information, experiences and best practices to share with authorities to help curb illegal trade.  

    At the GTNF, you said that in order to eliminate the illicit cigarette trade, it’s important to follow the money. What would be an effective strategy to tackle the problem?  

    The main driver of all illegal trade, but especially the illegal tobacco trade, is the ability of crime groups and individuals to generate huge illegal profits with very little deterrent. Across the globe, there is an increase in enforcement activity focusing on confiscating the proceeds of crime. However, more needs to be done; criminals especially do not like it when “they are hit in the pocket.” There is a very low imprisonment rate for people charged with tobacco-related smuggling offences—and even if they do receive jail time, it is taken as an occupational hazard. So, it is very important for LEAs and other government agencies to follow the money and infiltrate the complex world of money laundering and other criminal activities linked to these groups. Investigating these connections is essential to disrupt their criminal operations.

    For example, in July 2023, Malaysia’s Multi-Agency Task Force launched a major investigation into a prominent businessman with ties to local politicians and celebrities using these very methods. The arrested businessman, identified as the mastermind behind various criminal activities including cigarette smuggling operations, was apprehended during a series of well-coordinated raids. 

    This high-profile and complex case was investigated, with authorities employing the Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorism Financing Act and the more conventional Anti-Smuggling Act.

    Do you have examples of instances where a government successfully curbed illicit cigarette trade? What could we learn from those examples?

    Intelligence and research show that the main drivers for illegal trade are steep and sudden tax increases, making legal tobacco products less affordable and pushing consumers to seek cheaper alternatives. That is why balanced, reasonable and predictable taxation are prerequisites to curbing illicit trade.

    The illegal tobacco trade is, by nature, a transborder crime, with illegal cigarettes smuggled into a country and quite often with legitimately declared transit goods. While countries like Taiwan, Malaysia or Singapore recognize the economic benefits of being a transshipment hub, criminal groups exploit these hubs for their illicit activities. The following are a few examples of where government action was successful: 

    • Taiwan: Illegal tobacco smuggling often takes place through containers, utilizing a carousel-like approach to evade detection by law enforcement authorities. The Taiwan government has taken significant measures in this regard and has successfully intercepted containers suspected of carrying cigarettes with incorrect declarations while transiting through Taiwanese ports.
    • Malaysia: Starting in January 2021, the Malaysian government took action to address the widespread diversion of illegal cigarettes within the country. As part of this effort, a policy was implemented to restrict the transshipment of cigarettes to five designated ports in Malaysia. This policy successfully reduced smuggling activities at these ports by strengthening control and monitoring measures related to the illicit tobacco trade. By doing so, the government aimed to safeguard its revenue and protect against losses.
    • Singapore: Being the world’s second-busiest container port and largest transshipment hub, Singapore’s strategic position also attracts criminal activities. Starting from 2024, the Singapore government will implement a new licensing regime in phases and enhance the enforcement powers of customs officials. These measures aim to prevent smugglers from exploiting the free trade zones and ensure the security and integrity of these areas from illegal activities.

    Criminals have also started targeting reduced-risk nicotine products (RRPs). Can you please describe your findings in this regard?

    Currently, national regulations on RRPs vary from market to market and are even nonexistent in many countries, leaving room for illegal trade to operate in a gray area. For example, Taiwan has banned the sale of e-cigarettes but allows the sale of heat-not-burn sticks and devices. There are a lot of relatively new products, such as disposable vapes, coming into markets, and it is often not clear to enforcement officers what is legal and what is not. So apart from better regulation, there is an education factor often required for the officers charged with enforcing the law. Unfortunately, organized crime groups are exploiting either the lack of clear regulation or legislation or the confusion within enforcement authorities regarding the various products.

    Since RRPs are a relatively new category, illegal product distribution through online channels—including websites and instant messengers—gained significant popularity and widespread adoption, especially in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

    The increase in online sales presents a challenge for law enforcement officials because of cross-border distribution and the ability to conceal the IP host. This makes it difficult to identify and track the source of the products. These challenges are even more pronounced due to the limited resources available to many governments.

    Australia is probably a special case: Its strict regulation of tobacco products has contributed to the emergence of a black market for cigarettes. Now it has adopted a tough stance on vaping products too. What is this doing to illicit trade in the country?

    The less affordable legal cigarettes are, the higher the demand [is] for illegal products from consumers. The cost of a pack of cigarettes in the country is well over AUD40 ($26) and can be twice as much as an illegal pack, making it a lucrative market for criminal tobacco operations.

    To safeguard tax revenue and combat the negative impact of illegal trade, the Australian government has taken several measures. The Australia Border Force—custom—established the Illicit Tobacco Taskforce, which collaborates closely with industry stakeholders and ASEAN’s customs. Through information sharing and best practice exchanges, they target tobacco smuggling and protect Australia’s interests. 

    However, cracking illegal operations takes a lot of time and effort as criminal groups have constantly changed tactics. For example, smugglers have recently started breaking down consignments into smaller units to make detection and enforcement more challenging.

    As for the government’s position on a regulation on reduced-risk products, effective January 2024, Australia has implemented a ban on importing disposable vapes. However, history shows that such bans always have dangerous side effects, as seen in South Africa, where the illicit market boomed in 2020 following a temporary ban on cigarettes. An effective ban on disposable vapes will potentially create an illegal or black market that organized crime groups could exploit. This situation poses risks to consumers who may unknowingly purchase counterfeit or substandard products.

    1 “Illicit whites” are cigarettes manufactured by legitimate businesses that are smuggled to the markets outside the jurisdiction where they are produced and then traded illegally without any relevant duties being paid, causing a loss of revenue to governments and legitimate retailers.

    2 www.tracit.org/uploads/1/0/2/2/102238034/illicit_trade_paper_final_final.pdf

    Stefanie Rossel is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial contributor. An experienced trade journalist, she combines sharp reporting skills with in-depth knowledge of the tobacco and vapor industries. Prior to joining Tobacco Reporter, Stefanie was editor-in-chief at Tobacco Journal International, where she worked for a decade. Fluent in English, German and French, Stefanie covers tobacco news around the world. She is based in Germany.
  • A Momentous Occasion

    A Momentous Occasion

    Photos courtesy of Godioli & Bellanti

    Godioli & Bellanti celebrates its 100th anniversary.

    By George Gay

    If you are ever due to visit the historic town of Citta di Castello, before you head off, you might like to take some time to read up on Italian artist and physician Alberto Burri, who was born there in 1915 and some of whose later works are on display at a venue repurposed from former Kentucky tobacco curing barns.

    The tobacco connection need come as no surprise. Citta di Castello, located in the province of Perugia, Northern Umbria, is the home of Godioli & Bellanti, which was founded in 1923 by Gino Godioli and Angelo Bellanti as an engineering company providing agricultural equipment, much of it to a thriving local tobacco-growing community. One hundred years on, Godioli & Bellanti has evolved and expanded into a company that is known to those working in the global tobacco sector for supplying machinery and equipment for complete leaf and primary processing lines, though it supplies, too, machinery and processing lines for medicinal herbs, other plants and food products.

    I would suggest that part of the reason why the company was able in October 2023 to celebrate 100 years of continuous business, during which it has become an important player in the global tobacco industry, is that it had, and has maintained, solid local, family and extended-family roots. Lorenzo Curina, a company veteran who really needs no introduction, told Tobacco Reporter earlier this year that its centenary celebrations were held in premises that had been, in 1923, the company’s headquarters but that had been donated to an educational and training institution when the company needed more space and moved to an industrial area in 1963 under its second-generation leadership.

    The institution, the Scuola Operaia Giovanni Ottavio Bufalini, was where Curina’s grandfather had taught and where students are now trained in, among other things, the culinary arts. Appropriately, the formal celebrations, which went hand in hand with a factory and city tour, were held on the ground floor of the institution, where the Godioli & Bellanti workshop had once been but where the institution now runs a typical Italian restaurant for the benefit of its students and customers.

    The event was addressed by speakers representing the political, ecclesiastical and academic life of Citta di Castello and attended by 140 guests, including Godioli & Bellanti’s Italian-based tobacco customers, its international agents and its employees, past and present. One of the guests was Elise Rasmussen, the executive director of The GTNF Trust and publisher of Tobacco Reporter, who said it had been an honor to attend the 100th anniversary celebrations and to be asked to propose the congratulatory toast on behalf of the assembled guests. “But it was an honor wrapped in pleasure—the pleasure of catching up with long-standing friends and meeting new ones as we came together from around the world in celebration of that momentous occasion,” she added.

    “In my work with Tobacco Reporter magazine, which this year is also celebrating a major anniversary, I have for a long time had the honor of working with the Godioli & Bellanti team, particularly Lorenzo Curina, who is a valued customer and treasured friend, so I took much pleasure in congratulating them all on reaching this milestone and look forward to working with them in the future as this dynamic engineering company forges ahead.”

    The Ability to Evolve

    The reference to a “momentous occasion” was not overwrought. In a changing world, more latterly, a rapidly changing world, it is not easy for a business, particularly, perhaps, a family business, to prosper through 100 years. And Curina, who has been with Godioli & Bellanti for 47 years and who is a shareholder and vice president, was well placed and not afraid to make this point when he spoke at the start of the event, in part thanking all the company’s customers, agents and employees for their various roles in ensuring Godioli & Bellanti’s success. “It wasn’t all rosy,” he admitted. While there were many good times and exciting moments, he said, each generation had faced difficult times during which they had had to draw on all their strengths just to continue in business.

    But this reference to the difficult times was brief, and Curina demonstrated his confidence in the company’s future when he talked of the high professional standards that had underpinned its performance during “these first 100 years.” And this commitment to the future was a theme taken up by the company’s managing director, Angelo Benedetti, who represents the family’s fourth generation and who, in his address, promised to carry forward and build upon the successes achieved by previous generations.

    Meanwhile, Curina, who knew both the company’s founders, one of whom was his grandfather, and who was mentored by the second-generation partners, spoke with pride of the work carried out by Godioli & Bellanti from the 1920s to the 1950s, when the company’s workshop was engaged in manufacturing products that few were capable of making—products that demonstrated, too, the flexibility of the company and its ability to evolve. For instance, during that time, the company provided equipment that pumped water from the Shebelle River to irrigate fields in Ethiopia and Somalia. And during the economic boom of the post-war era, the company was able to turn its hand to the construction of civil and industrial heating systems for a widening circle of customers.

    Then, in the 1960s, came the mechanization of tobacco processing in which Godioli & Bellanti became a significant player, in part because of the relationships built up with two Italian companies, Deltafina and Fattoria Autonoma Tabacchi—relationships that allowed Godioli & Bellanti to grow. Giorgio Marchetti, vice president and production director at Deltafina, on being asked to comment on the anniversary, said Godioli & Bellanti had actively served the tobacco industry with passion and professionalism over the years. “This blend has allowed a family company to achieve 100 years without showing ‘gray hairs’ but still looking young and dynamic,” he said in an email exchange. “The cooperation and experiences gained over the decades working with Deltafina have been beneficial for the growth of both companies.”

    Devotion and Passion

    And from its solid Italian base, the company expanded, offering its machinery to companies around the world—wherever tobacco was being processed. One such country is Bangladesh, where Godioli & Bellanti operates through a local agent headed by Shahroze Kabir, though the word “agent” does not do justice to the close relationship. Shahroze told TR in an email exchange that he had returned to Bangladesh from Australia, where he had been working as an accountant following the sudden death in 2018 of his father, Mohammed Jahangir Kabir, who had run the agency and who, incidentally, was a former head of marketing for BAT. Shahroze readily admits that, at that time, he had no experience working as an agent and had never been inside a tobacco factory but was offered the role on the basis of an agreement made between his father and Curina, for whom he said, “a promise is a promise.” ‘‘I suppose they adopted me as a part of the Godioli & Bellanti family and taught me everything I know about the business,” he said.

    “I work with many leading European machinery companies, but Godioli and Bellanti are special. They build their machines not just with engineering perfection but with love, devotion and passion …. We have supplied so much tobacco machinery in Bangladesh that it has upgraded the quality of processed tobacco in the country to very high global standards.”

    The reference to passion came up again when Mohammed Abob, who was Godioli & Bellanti’s agent in Ethiopia from 2010 to 2019, who is still in touch with the company and who, indeed, attended the anniversary celebrations, replied to a request for comment. Abob said his impression of Lorenzo and his brother Cesare was that they were dedicated and passionate about their work and proud of their company and their city. The company was important to them beyond the business and financial aspects of it. It represented a proud heritage that they were committed to now and in the future.

    And the devotion to engineering perfection mentioned by Shahroze was also alluded to by Curina in his opening speech when he said that Godioli & Bellanti had never made mass-produced products. With each project, the company committed to identifying the technical solution that the particular customer and the particular situation required. Each project was a new project, he said.

    Like Swiss Watches

    Away from the celebrations, TR had an opportunity to ask Curina a few questions, focused mainly on the way that the market for primary processing machinery and equipment had changed and is changing. The first asked how the primary processing facilities of the average factory that Godioli & Bellanti currently served differed from how those facilities were set up 25 years to 30 years ago. Not surprisingly, Curina’s answer focused on technology. Nowadays, the primary departments in which Godioli & Bellanti worked, he said, were characterized by high levels of technology, which meant that, in turn, the operations of those primaries were characterized by high standards of automation, synchronization and cleanliness. They were like Swiss watches, he added.

    And asked what would have been the most in-demand pieces of primary processing machinery and equipment 25 years to 30 years ago and what were the most in-demand pieces now, Curina replied that whereas in the past, his company made many lines for Burley toasting, comprising equipment for toasting, casing and top-flavoring, nowadays demand tended to favor lines for producing low-nicotine cut rag. Demand was relatively high, also, for automatic feeding lines, with equipment for de-cartoning tobacco, slicers, direct conditioning cylinders and direct conditioning and casing cylinders.

    Turning to the question of whether demand for primary processing machinery and equipment was increasing or decreasing, Curina described the situation as stable, which he found unsurprising since investing in a primary required broad financial shoulders and an intimate knowledge of the tobacco business.

    Finally, in answer to another question about demand, Curina said he had noticed that the world of green leaf threshing had moved massively toward the Far East and that the world of primaries was moving in the same direction, though more slowly.

    George Gay is Tobacco Reporter’s European editor, but his territory spans the globe. Based in London, George has covered the tobacco industry since 1982, initially for a U.K.-based publication and since 2004 for Tobacco Reporter. George’s understanding of industry issues, combined with his keen sense of observation and dry wit, have earned him a loyal following among Tobacco Reporter’s readers.
  • A Greener Leaf

    A Greener Leaf

    Yi people with high-quality flue-cured tobacco from electric barns
    (Photos: Jingmei Zhang)

    Chuxiong tobacco flue-curing enters the “zero carbon” era.

    By Min Lu, Xiaojiao Du, Jingmei Zhang

    Tobacco flue-curing is a critical tobacco production procedure and a relatively concentrated carbon emission process. By reducing carbon emissions during flue-curing, green production of flue-cured tobacco would be achieved. China is striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 based on its responsibility to promote a shared future for mankind and its inherent requirements for achieving sustainable development. Under the “carbon peak and neutrality strategy,” the green and low-carbon transformation of the tobacco industry is imminent. China Tobacco proposes to accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the industry’s development mode, focusing on the green development goals outlined in the next five-year plan. This initiative aims to expedite promoting green tobacco agriculture and facilitate the overall low-carbon transformation and upgrading of the entire industrial supply chain.

    The Chuxiong region has a long history of cultivating flue-cured tobacco. As early as 1613, tobacco was successfully grown in Wuding and Lufeng counties, which was then known as CaoYan. This area was among the earliest tobacco-planting regions in Yunnan. Today, Chuxiong has emerged as the second-largest tobacco-producing area in the province, supporting the economic and social development and contributing significantly to the increase in the Yi nationality people’s income.

    Situated in the central northern part of Yunnan Province, Chuxiong Yi Nationality Autonomous Prefecture is located on an inland plateau, with over 90 percent of its total area covered by mountains and semi-mountainous terrain. The region experiences a subtropical low-latitude plateau monsoon climate, providing an ideal geographical environment and climate conditions for cultivation of flue-cured tobacco. With its picturesque landscapes and favorable ecological advantages, Chuxiong Prefecture stands out as one of the most scenic tobacco-producing areas in Yunnan.

    A picturesque tobacco area in Nanhua County, Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China

    In recent years, Chuxiong Tobacco Co. has actively developed new energy electric flue-curing barns. In order to reduce the energy cost of electric flue-curing barns, solar power technology has been used to find clean energy for tobacco leaf flue-curing while also possessing the function of cold and freezing storage. Chuxiong Prefecture has taken a pioneering step toward “zero carbon” flue-curing in the province, aiming to reduce environmental impact significantly.

    A group of electric flue-curing barns developed in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province

    At present, coal has been the primary energy source for tobacco leaf flue-curing in Chuxiong Prefecture, leading to high energy consumption and inefficiency. Coal combustion has high carbon emissions, contributing to environmental pollution. Additionally, coal-fired flue-curing barns often lack precise temperature and humidity control, leading to issues such as rapid heating, temperature fluctuations and damage to tobacco leaves during flue-curing. These challenges have hindered the long-term development of green tobacco production, making the transition to clean and renewable energy sources imperative.

    Chuxiong boasts abundant sunshine, with an average annual sunshine duration of 2,447 hours and an average daily sunshine duration of 6.7 hours, making it one of the best areas for solar energy technology. The local government, particularly in Gonghe Town, Mouding County, has proactively sought funding to explore the construction of photovoltaic power stations atop 300 electric flue-curing barns in the region. This initiative converts solar energy into electricity, contributing to the reduction of carbon emissions and promoting sustainable energy practices. For example, a photovoltaic power station has been built on the roof of the 60 electric flue-curing barns of the Tiantai Village in Gonghe Town, with an installed capacity of 1,076 kW, 1,957 photovoltaic panels and an average annual power generation of 1,506,400 kWh. Based on full grid connection, the average annual income would be CNY505,849 ($70,933).

    Construction of a solar power station on the roof of an electric energy flue-curing barn

    Gonghe Town has also innovatively transformed electric barns into multifunctional units suitable for local conditions. Refrigeration equipment has been installed in 36 electric barns, enabling them to serve as cold and freezing storage units after the tobacco leaf flue-curing season. This comprehensive use of resources not only increases the efficiency of the barns but also supports the planning and development of nontobacco industries in the region—for example, to provide for keeping fresh conditions for planting green peas and green broad beans.

    To enhance flue-curing management practices, Chuxiong Tobacco has developed an Internet of Things (IoT) hardware device for flue-curing barns. Leveraging IoT technology, flue-curing technicians can monitor flue-curing conditions in real time through their mobile phones. They can adjust parameters, such as dry bulb and wet bulb temperature, providing precise guidance and real-time monitoring. By the end of 2022, the IoT hardware equipment had been successfully implemented across 4,894 barns, connecting them to the smart flue-curing management system.

    After the completion of the electric energy flue-curing barn, Chuxiong Tobacco Co. strengthened the training of the tobacco leaf flue-curing team, focusing on the electric energy flue-curing barn’s technology. Flue-curing technicians initially faced challenges in understanding the debugging and use techniques of the electric flue-curing barn. To address this, Chuxiong Tobacco organized multiple training sessions to enhance the team’s proficiency in operating the electric flue-curing barn and improving flue-curing technology.

    Starting from early August 2023, a comprehensive benefit analysis was conducted on three types of flue-curing barns: electric, biomass and coal. Through their own experiments, tobacco farmers gained firsthand insights into the advantages of electric flue-curing barns. A total of 38 flue-curing tests were conducted. From an economic perspective, the analysis revealed three key points.

    First, the flue-curing cost, including electricity and labor, for the electric energy flue-curing barn was CNY1.60 per kilogram, significantly lower than the biomass flue-curing barn (CNY2.60 per kilogram) and the coal-fired flue-curing barn (CNY3.30 per kilogram). The electric energy flue-curing barn reduced costs by 66.5 percent and 109.5 percent compared to biomass and coal-fired options, respectively.

    Second, the flue-curing loss rate was also analyzed. Electric energy flue-curing barns demonstrated a loss rate of 4.88 percent, outperforming biomass flue-curing barns (5.16 percent) and coal-fired flue-curing barns (5.8 percent). The electric energy flue-curing barn reduced quality flue-cured leaf losses by 5.7 percent and 19 percent compared to biomass and coal-fired alternatives.

    Third, the flue-curing output value was considered. Electric energy barns were priced at an average of CNY31.16 per kilogram, surpassing biomass barns (CNY30.5 per kilogram) and coal-fired barns (CNY29.10 per kilogram). Electric energy barns saw a price increase of 2.23 percent compared to biomass and 6.75 percent compared to coal-fired barns.

    Overall, electric flue-curing barns significantly lowered flue-curing costs, reduced flue-cured leaf losses and improved tobacco quality compared to biomass and coal-fired alternatives. Furthermore, the comprehensive output value of electric flue-curing barns increased by CNY2,890.30 per furnace and CNY4,535.20 per furnace, respectively (calculated based on a single furnace of 650 kg of dry tobacco), in comparison to biomass and coal-fired options. There has been a significant improvement in the economic benefits of 3,030 electric flue-curing barns in the state compared to coal-fired flue-curing barns.

    In terms of ecological and environmental benefits, the operation of the electric energy flue-curing barn has achieved the goal of “zero carbon” emissions, marking a significant step toward green and sustainable development. Alliance One International, Philip Morris International and PwC Price Waterhouse Coopers visited Chuxiong Prefecture to inspect and study the construction of electric energy barns. They highly praised and fully recognized this innovative approach. Chuxiong Tobacco Co. has successfully navigated the challenges of clean energy flue-curing, leading the industry toward “intelligent flue-curing.” This innovation has established a new service model for “intelligent flue-curing” and also promoted green and sustainable development in tobacco-growing areas. More importantly, it has increased the income of tobacco farmers, consolidated achievements in poverty alleviation and contributed significantly to rural revitalization efforts.

  • Clearing the Smoke

    Clearing the Smoke

    Image: Tobacco Reporter archive

    What can the next-generation nicotine industry expect in 2024?

    By Paul Hardman

    The U.K. government’s proposal for a “smoke-free” generation and changing consumer opinions toward nicotine products are causing a shift in consumer habits. The year 2023 shone a spotlight on e-cigarette compliance, with a potential ban on disposable vapes on the horizon. So, how will this year’s events impact the manufacturing of nicotine products, and what trends and regulations are we likely to see going into 2024?

    Nicotine Pouches

    Nicotine pouches represent an extraordinary opportunity to support tobacco harm reduction in adult smokers. Sweden, the world’s most advanced nicotine pouch market, is on the brink of being smoke-free, with less than 5 percent of its population smoking.

    However, in the U.K., there is a regulatory gap that allows those under 18 to purchase nicotine pouches legally. In addition, there are concerns that nicotine pouch manufacturers could fall into the same traps as some disposable e-cigarette companies, by creating products that appeal to youth.

    If youth use becomes an issue, the easiest move for regulators is to categorize nicotine pouches in the same way as oral tobacco products like snus—rendering them illegal. An alternative response might be to categorize these products as nicotine-replacement therapies and place them under medical product regulations, which would restrict their access.

    To keep these products available to adult smokers who wish to quit, manufacturers can act as if regulation is already in place: generate data, devise safety frameworks and ensure the quality of products entering the market. Importantly, manufacturers should present and market their products in responsible ways, including avoiding bright colors, not imitating other consumer goods (e.g., soft drinks) and refraining from using any type of cartoon/video game characters.

    Non-Heated Technologies

    We have yet to witness a vape product approved via the U.K. Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) pathway, which enables nicotine products to be marketed as smoking cessation nicotine-replacement tools and prescribed by healthcare professionals. However, non-heated vape technology might facilitate MAA approval by addressing the core problem of delivered dose uniformity (DDU).

    One example of a non-heated vape technology involves ultrasound sonication, which enables the atomization of e-liquids to create an aerosol, similar to technology used in medical nebulizers. The droplet size and dosage can be predefined according to the dimensions of the mesh, ensuring uniformity in the vapor, thus improving DDU. As we go into 2024, we will likely see more manufacturers exploring this approach. In parallel, e-liquids will be developed specifically for this technology.

    Product Development

    Nicotine product manufacturers have been moving toward a quality-by-design (QbD) development process, and we will see this continue in 2024. There are no specific guidelines or requirements for the stability testing of nicotine products other than the scientific justification for shelf life. Employing a QbD approach demonstrates a higher level of due diligence, which could produce safer, higher quality nicotine-delivery systems.

    In addition, manufacturers are starting to implement extractables and leachables studies during the development process in anticipation of the new guidelines being set out by the European Committee for Standardization. Once these guidelines are published, we can expect to see a more standardized approach throughout the industry.

    Paul Hardman is a managing consultant at Broughton, an independent life sciences contract research organization offering analytical testing services integrated with scientific consultancy and global regulatory support.
  • Difficult Dynamics

    Difficult Dynamics

    Photo: Taco Tuinstra

    The oriental leaf business struggles with adverse weather conditions and farmer attrition.

    By Stefanie Rossel

    “Complex” is probably the word that best describes the prevailing situation for classical oriental tobacco. In 2023, the sector again struggled with adverse weather conditions and farmer retention.

    “A shared challenge faced by all countries in the current season is the impact of adverse weather conditions,” comments Stelios Grigoriadis, regional director of Europe at Alliance One International (AOI).

    “The crop encountered difficulties early on with an extended rainy season, reducing transplanted acreage. Subsequently, an exceptionally dry and hot summer exacerbated the situation, resulting in volume losses for the industry ranging from 10 percent to 30 percent in specific countries. These weather-related challenges have been a common denominator in the diminished crop volumes across the region.”

    The current crop volumes in the four principal cultivating countries for classical oriental tobacco, comprised of Turkiye, Greece, Bulgaria and North Macedonia, will likely to be down, says Grigoriadis, marking a departure from the trends observed in the preceding two years to three years. “This decline is attributed to different factors influencing each country’s production landscape.”

    AOI emphasizes that its production estimates provide only a snapshot of the current expectations, adding that external variables may play a significant role in shaping the results. The company expects market leader Turkiye to produce 50,400 tons this season compared with 51,320 tons in 2022 and more than 55,000 tons under typical weather conditions.

    AOI anticipates 37,500 tons of the Izmir variety, basically flat from the 37,450 tons recorded in the previous year. It projects the Samsun crop to decline from 3,575 tons in 2022 to 3,000 tons in 2023.

    Basma dropped from 1,645 tons in the 2022 crop to 1,400 tons in the current season while Turkish Prilep increased from 850 tons in 2022 to 2,250 tons in 2023. East Izmir declined from 7,800 tons in 2022 to 6,250 tons in the current season.

    Weather conditions played a crucial role in determining the quality of the different varieties. Izmir experienced a negative impact on quality compared to previous years, primarily due to the hot and dry summer conditions. “This reflects a deviation from the standards observed in earlier crops,” says Grigoriadis.

    By contrast, the quality of Samsun and Basma was positively impacted. “The warm and favorable weather conditions during the curing period have contributed to an improvement in the quality of these varieties,” observes Grigoriadis. “This positive influence underscores the importance of climate factors during critical stages of cultivation.”

    The East Izmir variety remained stable in terms of quality, according to Grigoriadis.

    Photo: Prestige Leaf

    Lack of Labor

    Projections for the 2023 classical oriental crop in Greece vary. Dora Gleoudis, managing director of Greek leaf tobacco exporter Nikos Gleoudis Kavex, expects it to amount to 6,500 tons, comprising 4,300 tons of Basma and 2,200 tons of Katerini. This compares to a total crop of 8,000 tons in the 2022 season. “The quantity reduction is due to labor shortages,” says Gleoudis. “However, the crop quality in all areas is higher compared to last year’s, favored by weather conditions.”

    Nikos Tzoumas, managing director of Missirian, anticipates a crop of 5,700 tons divided between 3,700 tons of Basma and 2,000 tons of Katerini. “The Greek oriental crop decreased overall by almost 30 percent,” he says. “The reasons for this decrease, in sequence of importance, are abandonment of cultivation, absence of external workforce and low field yields due to dry weather.”

    The Katerini crop volume dropped by 35 percent, according to Tzoumas. “Eighty percent of this decrease was due to less cultivated land—that is, farmers who abandoned cultivation and farmers who decreased their cultivated land due to absence of workers—and 20 percent due [to] lower leaf yield following dry weather conditions,” he says. “Basma production decreased by 25 percent, caused mainly by farmers who abandoned cultivation.”

    Tzoumas  agrees that the quality of this year’s crop is very good. “Transplanting was accomplished under rainy conditions,” he says. “Later in the season, the extreme heat wave during July and the total absence of rainfall for four months stressed the plants and resulted in small, ripe and bodied leaves.”

    Bulgaria also experienced a significant reduction in volume. According to AOI, the country is expected to harvest approximately 3,200 tons of classical oriental tobacco in 2023. Like Greece, Bulgaria has struggled with farmer attrition and unfavorable weather conditions. “The attrition of farmers raises concerns about the sustainability and resilience of the tobacco industry in these countries,” says Grigoriadis.

    Photo: AOI

    Up and Coming

    North Macedonia appears to be a rising star among oriental-producing countries. Although its volume is projected to reach 16,000 tons in 2023, down from 21,000 tons in 2022, its farmer base remains committed. The number of growers cultivating Prilep has remained relatively stable in recent years. Yaka volumes, meanwhile, have declined to 150 tons this season from 248 tons in 2022.

    Hot and arid conditions during summer in Prilep, the center of North Macedonian tobacco growing, significantly reduced the crop quantity. However, the abundant sunshine also positively impacted the quality of the Prilep crop, according to Grigoriadis. “Particularly in the middle and upper harvests, the overall quality of this crop can be characterized as above average.”

    Rising Production Costs

    In addition to the already mentioned challenges, oriental tobacco growers have had to cope with the still-simmering Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. According to Gleoudis, the war in Ukraine has dramatically increased the prices of growers’ inputs as well as labor costs. On top of that, rising prices for other crops, such as corn or cotton, have prompted some growers to abandon the golden leaf. Tzoumas notes that the war in Ukraine and the subsequent economic sanctions against Russia have affected exports to Russian manufacturers. 

    Tobacco farmers in North Macedonia, meanwhile, have been struggling with continuously rising labor expenses, according to Grigoriadis. “This is a result of both the government-mandated annual increase in the minimum wage and a labor shortage stemming from increased population migration,” he explains.

    Turkiye, too, copes with the fallout from these crises. High inflation coupled with uncertainties in the pricing of crop inputs such as fuel, fertilizer and chemicals has created an environment of uncertainty. “The uncertain pricing of other crops has led some farmers to switch crops in the short term, disrupting planning and creating inefficiencies in the production of alternative crops,” says Grigoriadis.

    “This, in turn, results in fluctuations in farmer income, further increasing the challenges faced by those in the oriental sector. The uncertain and volatile conditions in the wake of these crises not only impact the financial aspects for farmers but also disrupt long-term planning. The uncertainty in input pricing and the unpredictability of crop prices create challenges in decision-making, affecting the overall efficiency of tobacco production.”

    Photo courtesy of Nikos Tzoumas

    Still in Undersupply

    While there have been shortages in all tobacco varieties, buyers of classical oriental tobacco, in particular, have been suffering from undersupply over the past two years. A return to balance in supply and demand is possible but depends on several factors, according to Grigoriadis.

    The challenges posed by weather-related uncertainties may require growers to adjust their agricultural practices and embrace new technologies along with risk mitigation strategies.  “Collaborative efforts among stakeholders, including farmers, state institutions and industry players may also contribute to a more resilient and sustainable supply chain for classical oriental varieties,” says Grigoriadis.

    “Supply and demand for oriental tobaccos are and will remain unbalanced,” predicts Gleoudis. “Regretfully, options of mechanizing the oriental tobacco crop have not proven successful.” She is referring to the HMO oriental tobacco harvesting machine developed by VIT and Philip Morris International that was trialed in Greece in the summer of 2020 to reduce farmers’ reliance on manual labor.

    “The opportunity to make the oriental tobacco cultivation a sustainable and mechanized crop was lost five years ago when the buyers did not embrace the HMO and the tobacco which was produced as such,” says Tzoumas. “Ten years of hard work by many individuals, five versions of improved HMO models, a new pure Basma seed with increased field yields registered in Greece and many young farmers with enthusiasm were all gone! At that time, even the farmers were ready to invest as they had understood sustainability as a tool for security and balance for their product and their life.”

    His forecast for the Greek oriental crop in 2024 is therefore pessimistic. “A further decrease in production is projected to happen in the 2024 crop,” says Tzoumas. “Farmers will keep on shifting from manual to mechanized crops, missing the work force needed for oriental tobacco, and to food crops, with the latter being in higher demand.” Aggravating the situation, the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy 2023–2027 significantly reduced the funds allocated to tobacco growers by adopting a flat rate per hectare, which is not in the favor of small holdings common in oriental tobacco farming.

    Gleoudis expects Greek and Bulgarian oriental production to remain stable in 2024. “Depending on weather conditions, North Macedonia could increase its production back to 22,000 tons.”

    Grigoriadis shares this prognosis for North Macedonia. “This optimistic estimate emphasizes the significance of weather conditions in determining the success of the crop,” he says. “It also indicates a potential for North Macedonia to maximize its production capacity, provided that external factors align favorably. However, it is essential to remain attentive to potential challenges and fluctuations in supply/demand dynamics that may influence the actual outcome.”

    Given favorable weather conditions, Turkiye’s 2024 oriental crop could increase by between 5 percent and 10 percent, according to Grigoriadis. “The competitiveness of oriental tobacco against other rival crops and the careful management of production costs are key considerations in shaping the final outcome.”

    Stefanie Rossel is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial contributor. An experienced trade journalist, she combines sharp reporting skills with in-depth knowledge of the tobacco and vapor industries. Prior to joining Tobacco Reporter, Stefanie was editor-in-chief at Tobacco Journal International, where she worked for a decade. Fluent in English, German and French, Stefanie covers tobacco news around the world. She is based in Germany.
  • Putting Faith in Cessation

    Putting Faith in Cessation

    Image: doidam10

    The role of religion in encouraging smoking cessation

    By Cheryl K. Olson

    The start of a new year is a perennially popular marker for initiating change. This includes fresh attempts to quit smoking. To that end, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control website features a multilingual “New Year, New Possibilities: Start Living a Smokefree Life Today!” advice and resources page.

    A study of 2018–2020 social media posts expected to find the Covid-19 pandemic linked to more posts on quitting. Nope. Instead, New Year’s resolutions made a difference.

    There’s nothing magic about a new year, of course. But setting some sort of targeted quit date does seem to increase motivation to follow through. A date in the near future—say, a couple of weeks away—seems best. Making a public commitment to quit, and preparing coping aids and skills, may also help.  

    The best thing about New Year’s resolutions is that they provide another chance to try. Research suggests that encouraging more quit attempts adds up to more success. Finding ways to do this is especially important for people who aren’t particularly motivated to quit in the near future.

    One often-overlooked path to encourage the discouraged or unmotivated to make quit attempts comes from religious observations. Major world religions have days every year where smoking is discouraged or forbidden.

     “Jews don’t smoke for 25 hours on Yom Kippur,” says Derek Yach, a physician who focused on smoking cessation at the World Health Organization and the Foundation for a Smoke-Free World. “Muslims refrain during daylight for the month of Ramadan. Some Christians stop during Lent.”

    “This raises the question of how people who smoke can continue quitting post the fast,” Yach adds. “How could you build on that?”

    The role of religion in encouraging smoking cessation deserves a closer look. And what, if anything, do we know about how major religions feel about tobacco harm reduction, including vaping?

    Religion and Smoking: The Basics

    “Systematic evidence of religious affiliation differences in tobacco use is surprisingly limited,” says a recent paper on religion’s role in smoking and vaping. One problem is distinguishing between the effects of religious affiliation, general religiosity and specific beliefs. Overall, studies show that people with no religious affiliation are more prone to smoking. Faiths with clear anti-tobacco positions, such as Seventh-day Adventists and Latter-day Saints, are less likely to smoke.

    Things get murky beyond that. Regular church attendance is often linked to lower smoking, for example. People more engaged with religion may have more nonsmokers in their social networks. Religious doctrines feed into social norms that affect smoking behavior.

    Of course, the texts of most major religions were written before tobacco spread across the globe. This means that religious scholars have had to interpret those texts and issue decrees regarding how smoking (and more recently, vaping) fits or clashes with their doctrines.

    Islam is one example. Until the early 20th century, according to an article in the BMJ, most Muslim jurists did not believe that smoking had any negative health effects. Some thought it might even aid digestion or reduce stress. As evidence of health risks increased, smoking became discouraged (mukrooh). Some scholars and institutions went further and declared smoking to be prohibited (haram). 

    Smoking is not explicitly banned by Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism or Buddhism. But religious values that promote avoiding deliberate harm to the body, and disapprove of addiction, mitigate against smoking.

    At times, religion has been a smoking promoter. The website of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops notes that the Catholic Church played a major role in bringing tobacco to Italy and spreading its use. In 2017, Pope Francis, stating that “No profit can be legitimate if it puts lives at risk,” announced plans to ban Vatican cigarette sales. The Vatican City State reportedly earned €10 million ($10.97 million) per year in profit from smokes sold (sans Italian taxes) through duty-free shops to its citizens and employees, who could purchase 50 or more discounted packs a month.

    Yach has long been intrigued about the potential of religious organizations to combat smoking. “In 1999, when I was at WHO, I convened a meeting through the World Council of Churches,” he recalls. Despite the name, the council represented a range of major religions. The meeting focused on what religions say about tobacco control and smoking.

    “What were the commonalities that suggested they supported tobacco control?” he wondered at the time. “We found there were three: Thou shalt not kill; thou shalt not kill others; and you should tell the truth.”

    Yach has recently returned to studying the issue of faith and health, with a new emphasis on tobacco harm reduction. Religious doctrines are still unsettled on that point. However, Yach notes that in most religions, “to save a life” is the highest value and ought to be supportive of harm reduction.

    In most religions, “to save a life” is the highest value and ought to be supportive of harm reduction.

    Derek Yach, global health expert

    Hitting Pause

    A review of studies on religiosity and smoking cessation found that few actually focused on quitting. There are a handful of published studies on smoking and Ramadan. In most Muslim-majority nations, religion and culture discourage smoking during the daytime fast, both in public and at home. Many Muslims perceived quitting smoking to be easier during Ramadan.

    One Malaysian study of 61 men who smoked found decreased Fagerstrom nicotine dependence scores during and shortly after Ramadan. The Ramadan environment, with most Muslims abstaining from smoking, was credited with helping men to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked or to stop smoking completely. The authors suggested that cessation support from health professionals might boost this effect.

    During Ramadan in 2015, a cessation effort targeted Malay men working in public offices who smoked. The intervention group got a booklet educating on smoking-related health effects and religious rulings as well as practical and motivational tips and religious encouragements. All participants had reduced nicotine dependence scores and saliva cotinine levels during Ramadan, and these remained significant for the intervention group after Ramadan.

    A study in Croatia focused on the first day of Lent, which some Christian groups observe for roughly six weeks leading up to the Easter holiday. Lent is a period of self-denial, which might involve fasting or giving up favored activities. A television and radio campaign for this “smoke out day” led to high awareness, and a quarter of people in the study abstained from smoking for 24 hours. People with lower levels of education were more likely to participate. 

    Religion Meets Technology

    Religion-based smoking cessation efforts could potentially reach groups that conventional methods have failed to help. In the U.S., older adults are more likely to attend religious services, and their smoking rates have been stagnant for the past two decades. The combination of faith communities and new technologies is particularly intriguing.

    One recent study sent twice-daily text messages (half religiously tailored) to 50 Somali Muslim men in Minnesota during Ramadan. Research participants saw the messages as appropriate and encouraging, and they smoked fewer cigarettes per day. Seven quit smoking.

    A published protocol for a new study describes a “Christian faith-based Facebook intervention for smoking cessation in rural communities.” Researchers plan to create and test a private moderated online group that uses peer and pastoral support, accessible to people who lack access to city resources.

    Ideally, we will eventually see studies that add harm reduction innovations, such as e-cigarettes, reduced-risk shisha and heated-tobacco products, to this mix of faith and tech.

    Religion and Harm Reduction

    Religious perceptions regarding reduced-harm nicotine options, such as vaping, are still evolving. Research on vaping and religion is extremely limited. Several studies found that religiosity bears no relationship to e-cigarette use among teens and young adults.

    The Malaysian study that looked at ways to encourage smoking cessation during Ramadan in 2015 was disrupted by the “vaping phenomenon,” with some subjects in both study groups starting to vape. Because vaping was not part of the protocol, it was ignored. A 2023 paper on e-cigarettes in Malaysia grouped “e-cigs, electronic shisha and shisha pens” as haram, along with cigarette smoking, due to perceived health risks.

    Perceptions of effects on health may be important. For example, a 2019 article on Judaism and e-cigarettes gives multiple perceived reasons for prohibiting their use, including that e-cigarettes are dangerous, are a gateway to smoking and are addictive. Further, “even if medical literature has not firmly and definitively established the long-term dangers of e-cigarette use independent of combustible cigarettes, the suspicion that these products are dangerous is sufficient to prohibit their use.”

    Clearly, strong evidence that reduced-harm nicotine products are a positive for health would be needed to overcome these concerns. Spreading credible information, such as the Cochrane review showing that vaping can successfully promote smoking cessation, might show that reduced-risk alternatives can fit with religious doctrines.

    Encouragingly, two recent studies (with the same lead author) looked favorably at e-cigarette use during Ramadan. One looked at vaping preferences and reasons for using e-cigarettes in the United Arab Emirates. A majority reported starting vaping to quit smoking. Over half reported no withdrawal symptoms during the Ramadan fasting time. The second study had a similar focus and findings but took place in Jordan. It noted that “Ramadan offers a good opportunity for smokers to quit, as the reported physical and psychological e-cig withdrawal symptoms were found to be relatively weak.” In both studies, e-cigarettes were accurately perceived as less risky than smoking.

    Faith-Based Harm Reduction

    The challenge now, as Yach sees it, is to think through how to explain harm reduction in clear and meaningful ways to faith-based groups. “People say, well, we don’t want to get into religion. But health is not merely the absence of disease. And the word ‘spiritual’ should be included alongside mental, physical and social well-being.”

    As a parallel, Yach points to the success of faith-based HIV/AIDS programs run through churches: “What’s at the core of an AIDS program? Harm reduction.” Given the billions of people who identify with religious groups, he says, the potential benefit could be huge.

    Cheryl K. Olson is a California-based public health researcher who specializes in behavioral health issues and consults on tobacco product behaviors via McKinney Regulatory Science Advisors. She spent 15 years on the faculty of Harvard Medical School.
  • Organized Skepticism

    Organized Skepticism

    Image: Mintoboru

    How can the science of tobacco and nicotine serve the public good?

    By Clive Bates

    There are almost as many definitions of science as there are scientists, but one that I like is “organized skepticism.” This is one of four norms of the scientific ethos proposed by sociologist Robert K. Merton in 1942. Robert May, the former U.K. government chief scientist, explained organized skepticism as “a journey, over time, toward contingent understanding guided by experimental tests and sceptical questioning.” Skepticism underpins the scientific process, and uncertainty is a pervasive, permanent and evolving feature of scientific understanding.

    How well are we living up to this ideal? I will break science down into five categories: exploration, observation, interpretation, intervention and values.

    Firstly, “exploration.” This is about which research questions are asked—or not asked—in the first place and why. In many ways, this is the most critical part of the scientific process because it can set, shape or sink a policy agenda. It should be driven by organized curiosity, the alter ego of organized skepticism. But too often, the control over the questions is governed by forces other than curiosity in the public interest. Why has there been so little curiosity about the countries with the lowest smoking rates or most rapid declines, such as Sweden? The halving of cigarette sales in Japan in just 10 years has attracted minimal interest (though with some notable exceptions), but why? Are researchers flocking to New Zealand to understand the dramatic decline in Maori smoking driven by the uptake of vaping? No, the research community has been distracted by its favored “endgame” measures.

    Another example is the expenditure of at least $100 million researching “very low-nicotine cigarettes,” mainly through a series of trials. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s enthusiasm for rulemaking in this area drove the research. But after a company, 22nd Century, put these products on the market, there was minimal interest in understanding the consumer reaction. Why? Surely, this should inform the nicotine rulemaking process. Poor questions can exclude important issues or contain false, unsurfaced assumptions. For example, the U.K. recently asked the research community “What can we do to reduce youth vaping?” But do they want to reduce youth vaping if it increases adult smoking? What about young people who would be smoking if they were not vaping? The question limits the possible answers and excludes much we should be curious about.

    A final example is the extraordinary lack of interest in the reasons why there is a demand for nicotine and, therefore, why it is likely to persist. In my view, users experience positive hedonistic, functional and therapeutic effects, which underpin the demand. But curiosity in this area has been suppressed beneath a crude narrative of “addiction.”

    Secondly, “observation.” This is the careful business of discovering what is happening through surveys, test measurements, experiments, qualitative studies, etc. Much good work goes on in this area, but it could be far better. Given how much money and public and political concern nicotine attracts, shouldn’t we have better data and faster? The English Smoking Toolkit Survey provides monthly data on nicotine use trends published with only a few weeks of delay between the survey and publication. Why doesn’t every country have a surveillance system like this? Every country has a sizeable share of its population dying from smoking-related diseases; why not have the data to understand the phenomenon? In the energy sector, the International Energy Agency produces in-depth statistics on every aspect of energy use for nearly every country in an advanced Data Explorer. But for nicotine, we have only crude prevalence data and nothing that will show us the evolving trends in nicotine use as it develops and diversifies over the next two decades. The FDA regulates the recreational nicotine market in the United States, yet it has no systematic assessment of how that market is developing. Instead, individual manufacturers must report on their own products. It would be so much better to have one extensive survey, including all the main product types and all those products not authorized but on sale. The FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products receives annual user fees of $712 million yet does not even have a basic and timely picture of the market, including the illicit market, in the products it regulates.

    Thirdly, “explanation.” This is where scientists try to determine cause and effect. Did vaping flavors cause teenage vaping? Does vaping cause heart disease? Do more people quit smoking if they have access to vapes, or are vapes a gateway to smoking? Alas, in this domain, skepticism is too often replaced with its inverse, confirmation bias, and its more assertive counterpart, motivated reasoning. There are strong incentives to find or claim causal relationships, even where none exist. Why is it hard to establish causal explanations? I tend to focus on three main issues.

    1. Confounding. One thing appears to be caused by another, but they are both caused by a third factor. If we observe a 50-year-old vaper for signs of illness, how do we account for the effect of several decades of prior smoking? It is almost impossible to make allowances for that. For conditions that arise from cumulative exposure over decades (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or heart disease), it is impossible to isolate the effects of vaping and confounding by prior smoking. Yet, claims are repeatedly made that vaping is a cause of these diseases.
    2. Reverse causation. One thing appears to be caused by another, but the relationship is the other way around. Some studies show that young people who are exposed to vape advertising are more likely to vape. In these studies, “exposure” usually means recall, the ability to remember seeing an advert. But suppose those inclined to vape for other reasons are more interested in vaping ads and more likely to remember them? The vaping causes the recall of advertising, not the reverse.
    3. Poor external validity. The experiment doesn’t adequately reflect reality. Some machine measurements of vaping aerosol show relatively high levels of some toxicants. But they have often been run with power and flow rates that greatly overheat the liquids, creating conditions no users could tolerate. The machine registers a toxic exposure, but no human would ever be exposed to it. In a clinical trial, volunteers with a declared intention to quit are paid to participate. They are given free products and incentivized to use them. But how well does that experiment reflect the impact of a new product on people who buy their cigarettes at a corner shop? Hardly at all. Yet a giant edifice of support for de-nicotinization of cigarettes has been built on such trials. Those affected are more likely to switch to illicit or smoke-free products.

    Fourth, “intervention.” This is the science of deciding what to do or what happened after a policy was implemented. Curiosity and skepticism seem to be actively discouraged in this area of tobacco control research, though with exceptions. One of the largest tobacco control interventions ever is the 2019 ban on vapes and heated-tobacco products in India, which earned a World Health Organization medal. Yet almost nothing has been done to discover what happened, and the WHO continues to promote these prohibitions. I think this is because, for many in that field, the policy and law are the outcomes, not their actual effects on behavior and, ultimately, health. Too many scientists are regulatory literalists, believing that people will do what the regulators hope they will. Armed with observations of harm and explanations for its cause, they wrongly believe that intervention is simply a matter of removing the cause with a law. Not so. An intervention is a disturbance of a complex system of human, technological and economic interactions. It is vulnerable to at least three forms of unintended consequences: first, adverse behavior change (a vape flavor ban causes more smoking); second, workarounds (a vape flavor ban causes people to mix their own flavors using food ingredients); third, illicit trade (an informal economy develops, possibly with organized crime groups extending their portfolio). Intervention always requires a systems approach and an economic appraisal to assess the likely outcomes and their cost-effectiveness or value for money. Far too many biomedical scientists trespass into the economic discipline of intervention without the necessary skills and experience.

    Fifth, “values.” Politicians often declare they are “led by the science.” But no policies can or should ever be determined by science alone. Values or ethics must have a central role—just because something might work doesn’t make it right or acceptable. For example, if we could show that misleading young people about vaping risks reduced youth vaping, would that be an acceptable policy? Should we intervene to stop smoking in private homes? Should children be separated from parents who smoke? Should smokers be denied healthcare for reasons of contributory negligence? There are boundaries to what we find acceptable, whatever the science tells us might work. But different people have different boundaries.

    Clive Bates is the director of Counterfactual Consulting and the former director of Action on Smoking and Health (U.K.).
  • A Brighter Future

    A Brighter Future

    Image: chartphoto

    Examining the impact of flavored e-cigarettes on adult smokers: insights from a three-month experimental study

    By Jessica Zdinak

    Much ink has been devoted to the dichotomy presented by electronic nicotine-delivery systems (ENDS)—are they a friend or a foe?

    For several years now, we have seen a surge of a variety of different e-cigarette products, overrunning the U.S. commerce both legally and illegally. The question remains for some, including our regulator: Do they serve as an alternative to traditional combustible cigarettes, or do they serve as an initiator for youth and young adults? This dichotomy revolves heavily around the authorization of and use of flavored e-cigarette/e-liquid products.

    Continuously, and in my opinion, rightfully so, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) presents manufacturers with marketing denial orders that state things like “… your PMTA lacks sufficient evidence demonstrating that your flavored ENDS will provide a benefit to adult users that would be adequate to outweigh the risks to youth.” To demonstrate this, a reliable and robust study must be conducted. “Reliable and robust” means different things with each of the different scientific areas contained within an application. For the behavioral sciences, it means using a design that inherently has a level of methodological and statistical control, such as a randomized control trial, known in our scientific area as a “between-subjects experimental design.”

    To address the CTP’s concerns and gain a better understanding of the effects of flavored e-cigarettes, the research team at Applied Research and Analysis Company (ARAC) conducted a three-month randomized experimental study. This study was sponsored by Accorto Regulatory Solutions, in conjunction with Freenoms, an e-liquid manufacturer and subsidiary of Lotus Vaping Technologies, creator of the Nomenons e-liquid. In this article, we will explore the key findings and insights from this study, shedding light on how flavored e-cigarettes may influence adult smokers’ habits and vapes’ potential as a smoking cessation tool.

    Study Context

    The study, conducted by a team of experts led by ARAC Chief Research Officer Jessica Zdinak, was designed to provide evidence related to the public health impact of flavored e-cigarette products on adult smokers. The study’s design played a crucial role in ensuring the validity and reliability of the results. Expertise in behavioral science and research methodologies were instrumental in crafting the study’s plan, design and analysis. After a recent meeting with the CTP, it is acknowledged that ARAC’s key behavioral science framework meets the mark from a scientifically rigorous perspective. Here are just a few key aspects of ARAC’s study designs that underscore the importance of such expertise:

    1. Statistical power: The study’s design took into account statistical power, ensuring that there were enough participants to detect significant effects should differences or effects exist and not to detect such differences or effects should they not exist. (Think, “Can you generalize your results?”)
    2. Effect size considerations: Researchers considered effect size, an important factor in determining the practical significance of findings. (Think, “How generalizable are your results?”)
    3. Hypothesis generation: The study involved the formulation of hypotheses that guided the research, enabling a systematic investigation of the impact of flavored e-cigarettes on smoking behaviors.
    4. Awareness of behavioral factors: Researchers were keenly aware of the behavioral factors at play behind nicotine consumption, adding depth to the study’s approach.

    Study Design

    The study was conducted using a between-subjects randomized experimental design, which involved two conditions: one with flavored e-liquids and another with tobacco-tasting e-liquids. The primary dependent variables were cigarettes per day (CPD) and candidate product usage. The use of a randomized experimental design is a rigorous and reliable approach to investigate the effects of flavored e-cigarettes on smoking behaviors, as it minimizes bias and allows for causal inferences.

    Following Institutional Review Board approval, participants were recruited from several locations across the U.S. They were then randomly assigned to one of two conditions: flavored candidate e-liquids or tobacco-tasting candidate e-liquids. Over a three-month time period, participants returned to facilities each month to select additional products as needed and to complete follow-up surveys. The follow-up surveys asked participants to specify their CPD over the past 30 days and the past 24 hours as well as their use of the candidate e-liquids. These responses were used for the primary analyses in which reduction and cessation were defined and analyzed as:

    1. computed reduction of 50 percent or more of cigarette stick usage from baseline to follow-up
    2. complete elimination of cigarette sticks

    Results: Descriptive Insights

    At the end of the three-month study, a total of 382 participants completed the final follow-up survey (n=181 in flavor condition; n=157 in tobacco-tasting condition). Using this data, we conducted both descriptive and inferential statistics. Coupled together, but with a focus on the inferential statistics, this study’s results offer valuable insights into the impact of flavored e-cigarettes on smoking behaviors.

    1. Flavors over time: The study tracked how participants’ preferences for specific e-liquid flavors did (or did not) change over the three-month study period.

    2. CPD between conditions over time: The results show the descriptive differences in cigarettes smoked per day between the flavored and tobacco-tasting conditions over the course of the study.

    3. CPD between conditions over time: The results show the inferential statistics assessing the experimental effect of flavors on CPD compared to tobacco-tasting. Specifically, the study found that the portfolio of flavored e-liquids led to a significant reduction in CPD compared to tobacco-tasting products. This suggests that flavor plays a role in encouraging smokers to cut down on their cigarette consumption.

    4. Switching rates: The research examined the rates at which participants switched from smoking cigarettes to using e-cigarettes, with specific attention to the flavored e-liquids, which led to a higher quit/cessation rate than tobacco-tasting e-liquids.

    5. Individual flavor assessments: The study explored how individual flavors affected CPD reduction and cessation, providing insights into the specific flavors that had the most significant impact. Specifically, different flavors had varying effects on CPD reduction and cessation, with some flavors showing statistically significant differences. This highlights the complexity of the relationship between flavor and smoking behaviors, such as reduction in CPD and cessation of combustible cigarettes.

    Summary of Findings

    In summary, the study found that flavored e-liquids had a positive impact on smoking behaviors among adult smokers. Specific findings include:

    1. CPD reduction: The portfolio of flavored e-liquids were associated with a statistically significant reduction in cigarettes smoked per day compared to tobacco-tasting products, suggesting that flavors encourage smokers to cut down on their cigarette consumption.
    2. Variability among flavors: The impact of flavored e-liquids on CPD reduction and smoking cessation varied among different flavors. Certain flavors had a more pronounced effect, highlighting the need to consider the specific flavor profiles when evaluating their impact on smoking behavior.
    3. Preference changes over time: Some participants’ preferences for specific flavors changed throughout the study, indicating that flavor appeal may evolve and influence its effectiveness in encouraging smokers to switch to e-cigarettes.
    4. Qualitative insights: Open-ended questions provided valuable qualitative insights into how flavors influenced participants’ perceptions and decisions to quit or reduce cigarette consumption. These insights offer a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between flavor and smoking behavior.

    Overall, the study’s findings underscore the complex interplay between flavored e-cigarettes and smoking behaviors among adult smokers. While some flavors show promise in reducing cigarette consumption and promoting switching, there is no one-size-fits-all approach, and individual preferences and perceptions play a significant role.

    One of the most powerful aspects of science is replicability. If industry is serious about getting new products, including flavors, authorized for market, replicability of studies such as this one is fundamental to success. Let’s hope this study is just the first of many at building that library of rigorous scientific evidence that the CTP has been looking for.

    Jessica Zdinak is a U.S. Eastern Shore Virginia native with almost 20 years’ experience leading psychological research across a variety of domains, including a decade of which serving in tobacco harm reduction. She leads a team focused on product development and behavioral science consumer research supporting innovation, “next-generation” products and regulatory applications, including investigational tobacco products, premarket tobacco product applications, modified-risk tobacco product applications and substantial equivalence applications. Zdinak has substantial experience within the U.S. federal government sector, leading research evaluation teams with a focus on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation, the Food and Drug Administration, and other large-scale grants and projects.
  • Tracing Their Tracks

    Tracing Their Tracks

    Photo: Taco Tuinstra

    Musings on the movements of tobacco products from the field to the store shelf

    By George Gay

    I suppose that when a person decides it is time to buy a tobacco product, let’s say a pack of cigarettes, she enters the world of tobacco logistics, one of the last links in the multi-branched logistical chain that might be thought of as stretching from the tobacco seed through the consumer-level purchase to what is to be hoped will be the proper disposal of the butt.

    In England, where I live, French was the official language for about 300 years from 1066, so it is not surprising that many of our English words have been borrowed from French, and “logistics” is one such word. It was originally applied, I believe, to the complexities of moving and accommodating armies, a task that has presumably become more complex, if easier on the feet, over time. The order to “walk to the next village and recharge yourselves on food plundered from the villagers” has become outdated, I guess, at least the bit about walking.

    The logistics of buying cigarettes in England has similarly become more complex, with more uncertainties having been introduced, though it must be granted that, in some instances, it, too, has become easier on the feet. I cannot think, for instance, of any other consumer product apart from tobacco that you cannot see, handle and compare, at least at a packaging level, before you buy it. Indeed, I would have thought that such sales should have been made illegal; they certainly seem to be unethical and, from the point of view of the smoker, unwise. It is not for no reason that for at least 500 years, people here have been advised not to buy a “pig in a poke”—not to buy something without first being able to appraise it properly. And I believe it is still the case in U.K. restaurants that a customer cannot be forced to pay for food before eating it, which is no doubt a rule imposed by the French in 1077 after sampling what was on offer.

    Hidden from View

    Why go to the effort of requiring graphic health warnings if you then prevent anybody but those committed to buying them from seeing them? (Photo: Taco Tuinstra)

    It is nevertheless the case that cigarettes are sold from behind the closed doors of aesthetically challenged cabinets and, even when those doors are opened to allow the retailer to take a pack out, it is just about impossible to see what other brands are available because those tobacco control people and politicians who are convinced that they should use their superior wisdom to save smokers from themselves have determined that all packs should look the same—grotesque. The hugely dominant feature of each pack is a so-called graphic health warning, which in fact is nothing of the sort but merely a bit of scaremongering showing some type of medical condition that smokers are supposed to assume is the outcome of indulging their habit but which they know could be related also to poverty, pollution, faulty genes and other lifestyle choices, including those involved in drinking alcohol.

    The logistics of buying alcoholic drinks in England is allowed to be a much simpler affair even though the consumption of alcohol is a greater scourge on society than the consumption of cigarettes. All you need do is go along to your local supermarket, and there the drinks are laid out, row after row of them. In fact, row after row, right down to floor level so, presumably, children can run their little fingers along the bottles and cans and innocently admire the pretty colors and designs, including the odd cartoon. And, of course, those children watch adults put the bottles and cans into their trolleys and no doubt figure that this stuff is food, just like the other products on display. Although they don’t realize it, at least at the time, this is one of the lessons in traditional hypocrisy that adults will unthinkingly or uncaringly pass on to them.

    I would have thought that from a logistics point of view, it would be logical to place alcoholic drinks inside cabinets where they cannot be seen, simply because these products, like cigarettes, are age restricted and raise health concerns but, unlike cigarettes, do not include graphic health warnings. But where is the logic in putting tobacco products inside cabinets where they cannot be seen? Why go to the effort of requiring the inclusion on cigarette packs of graphic health warnings, which, presumably, are meant to be visually off-putting, if you then prevent anybody but those committed to buying them from seeing them?

    Logical Logistics

    One trap that can spring when you start thinking about consumer logistics is that which I have moved close to above. Although the words logical and logistical are superficially similar in form, they have different roots, though you might expect that a good hand would be made of applying logical concepts to logistics. But, as can be seen, the logistics applied to the retail sales of cigarettes and alcohol are not logical, though they apparently appear to make sense to some people, perhaps because we live in an irrational world. 

    Logistics, I guess, is largely about choice. If you grow tobacco inland and want to export it, you and your customer must weigh up whether you should, in the name of efficiency, send your leaf by truck or train, to which port and company you should send it and to which carrier you should entrust it. But at the consumer end of the logistics chain, there is very little in the way of choice, at least in England. A combination of manufacturer efficiencies, and the imposition of unconscionable levels of taxes and pointless tar and nicotine delivery-level limits have meant that cigarettes are all largely the same.

    Successive governments, while superficially criticizing the major tobacco manufacturers, have contrived to squeeze the logistical channels and hand to those manufacturers an almost closed market that cannot in any way be justified on the grounds of reducing the risks to smokers. Limiting the range of cigarettes has had no benefit for smokers. But limiting the range of cigarettes has benefited tobacco manufacturers while de facto limiting the number of manufacturers on the market has made the government’s tax collection much more cost effective and provided bigger targets for tobacco control, which can rightly point out that there are almost no cigarette manufacturing jobs available in England and, setting aside taxes, only costs. Logistical logic apparently has it that it is better to transport cigarettes across Europe and what is known here as the English Channel while the world drives nonchalantly past 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming and environmental catastrophe.

    I don’t believe what we are expected to swallow about there being no safe level of tobacco consumption but a safe level of alcohol consumption, an idea that is used to support proposals to limit the sale of the tobacco but not of alcohol. The government in England, which says that people should limit alcohol consumption to 14 units a week, would have conniptions if anybody set a limit of 14 cigarettes a week. But in a country where more than 90 percent of people spend their lives in polluted air, 14 cigarettes a week is going to be neither here nor there. But again, the logistics do not reflect this. While alcohol is on open sale, cigarettes are not, and now, noises are being made about limiting the number of retail outlets allowed to sell the latter, something that the good and the great will no doubt latch onto in due course and something that will simply increase the inconvenience for smokers and the polluting, environment-wrecking distances they will drive to obtain their cigarettes. If there is one thing that should be left to the market, it is the number of retail outlets that sell a particular consumer product.

    Of course, you don’t have to visit a local retail store to obtain your cigarettes. You have other logistical options open to you, some of which will help preserve your footwear. You can buy them while you are on an overseas holiday or make a special trip across the Channel to buy them—by car if you are not concerned about the environment. And you can also buy them online if you are reasonably technically literate, and once bought, they can be delivered to your home or your workplace, even to the pub, though you will have to smoke them outside, possibly at a distance greater than that from which they were delivered.

    The Generational Ban

    One of the interesting aspects of cigarette-buying logistics arises if you start to wonder what will happen when and if the government brings in its generational smoking ban. So far, the U.K. government has issued a consultation document on smoking and vaping that includes a proposal to make it an offense to sell any product containing tobacco to those born on or after Jan.1, 2009, which would raise the legal “smoking age” by a year each year until it applies to the whole population.

    Currently, retailers are obliged to prevent sales of tobacco products to those under the age of 18, and, as reported in the December issue of Tobacco Reporter, age identification technology is available that is good at helping retailers signed up to the Challenge 25 scheme in carrying out this task. The technology works by examining faces, determining whether somebody is younger than or older than 25. If the prospective customer appears to be over 25, the sale of cigarettes can go ahead while if she appears to be under 25, the retailer is obliged to ask for identification.

    Although I have no real insights into this, I cannot help thinking it is going to be difficult updating the technology each year as the age limit is raised under the generational scheme. If, in the future, you want to separate the 49-year-old born in 2008 from the 48-year-old born in 2009, will the technology be adjustable to a Challenge 56 scheme, or will it have to be modified to examine people’s hands, which become a more accurate gauge of aging than faces as people get older? Perhaps other parts of the body are even more telling of age, but I simply refuse to let my imagination dwell on the scene in the retailers with a line of middle-aged and older smokers stripped to their underwear for examination.

    Perhaps under a generational scheme, smokers will have to be issued with annually updated, smoker-specific identity cards. Or perhaps they could circumvent the whole merry-go-round and grow their own tobacco. In fact, there might be an opening here for kits that could help people convert raw tobacco to smokeable cigarettes, something that I believe is not possible on a small scale as things stand. A move to artisanal cigarette making could significantly reduce the logistical chain of these products and their environmental impact.

    George Gay is Tobacco Reporter’s European editor, but his territory spans the globe. Based in London, George has covered the tobacco industry since 1982, initially for a U.K.-based publication and since 2004 for Tobacco Reporter. George’s understanding of industry issues, combined with his keen sense of observation and dry wit, have earned him a loyal following among Tobacco Reporter’s readers.
  • Endgame Over

    Endgame Over

    Image: Gintare Stackunaite

    Policymakers are having second thoughts about generational tobacco bans.

    By Stefanie Rossel

    On Nov. 24, 2023, New Zealand’s new conservative government scrapped the Smoke-Free Aotearoa 2025 Action Plan that was passed under former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern with the goal to reduce the share of smokers in the country to 5 percent or less by 2025.

    The law required a drastic reduction of legal retail outlets for tobacco products, from currently 8,000 to less than 600 starting in 2024, and the mandatory sale of very low-nicotine cigarettes from 2025. The most spectacular element of the legislation, however, was what would have become the world’s first generational smoking ban. Under this provision, those born after 2008 would never be able to legally buy cigarettes. The first part of the new law entered into force in January 2023, when gifting or selling combustible tobacco products intended for smoking to people born on or after Jan. 1, 2009, became illegal.

    At 6.8 percent in 2023, New Zealand already has a low adult smoking rate compared to other countries. Smoking prevalence, however, is considerably higher among the indigenous population and Pacific Islanders: According to the most recent Ministry of Health statistics, 17.1 percent of Maori adults smoked in 2022/2023. Smoking rates among Maori women and Maori men were 17.5 percent and 16.8 percent, respectively, during that period, with Maori women having one of the highest lung cancer rates in the world. Pacific peoples had a smoking rate of 6.4 percent.

    The ban was expected to save 5,000 lives a year. According to recent modeling, it could have saved New Zealand’s healthcare system $1.3 billion over 20 years.

    The repeal of the plan is part of the new government’s three-party coalition agreement in which both minor partners demanded the retraction. Critics have accused the parties of ditching the measure to ensure sufficient cigarette tax revenues to fund their planned tax cuts. The new government, however, cited concerns about illicit trade among other reasons. A generational smoking ban as envisaged, incoming premier Christopher Luxon said, would have created a flourishing black market.

    Uncertain Outcome

    Marewa Glover

    Public health experts expressed shock at the retraction, calling it “public health vandalism,” a “disastrous, terrible move” and a “squandered opportunity.” Marewa Glover, director of the Centre of Research Excellence: Indigenous Sovereignty and Smoking, takes a different view. “There was no real-world evidence for any of these policies,” she says. “No one in the world knows what would have resulted or what positive or negative consequences would have occurred. We can surmise what modeling does. Data for 2022/2023 shows smoking prevalence is continuing its decline. The 40 percent of adults living in the least deprived neighborhoods are already below 5 percent. Even the 40 percent in the most deprived areas are around 10 percent. Smoking prevalence among under 18-year-olds was already very low.”

    The ban on sales of tobacco to adults aged 18-plus, she adds, was not going to take effect until 2027. “Some jurisdictions already have restricted tobacco sales to persons who have obtained the age of 21 years or over. So, there was plenty of time for future governments to repeal it before it ever impacted adults.”

    She says that the big economic and social impact of the Action Plan would come from the reduction of tobacco retailers to 600 in a nation nearly as big as Japan. “What’s more, the convenience store industry retailers of combustible tobacco products—and a majority now also sell a limited range of vaping products—are largely owned by small family-owned businesses popular with our New Zealand Indian/Asian population. Many would have reportedly suffered loss because of loss of impulse trade as buyers of cigarettes were lost. The reduction to only 599 stores was due to take effect on July 1, 2024.”

    The measure did not include a phase-in time, compensation or financial assistance to those affected, according to Glover. “My research on the robberies of stores for tobacco products highlighted the serious injuries and harm this sector was already experiencing due to the burgeoning black market demand for tobacco,” she says.

    The third radical change, according to Glover, was the ban on the sale of tobacco products containing more than 0.8 mg/g of nicotine from April 1, 2025. “This would have rendered tobacco cigarettes useless—well before the sinking lid on age of purchase began to take effect,” she says. “Insufficient real-world evidence exists to inform the public and policymakers of the implications of such a policy. Evidence would need to consider the social and cultural implications as well as the health benefits. Is it really necessary, especially given the costs and risks, when effective and attractive—to the consumer, at their cost—pathways to very low smoking prevalence exist, such [as] has been proven in Sweden, Norway and Iceland?”

    The new government has proposed to reform the regulation of vaping and smokeless tobacco products. Among other measures, it wants to reverse the previous government’s ban on oral nicotine pouches and snus and tax only smoked tobacco products. The restrictions on disposable vaping products are going ahead but with more serious penalties for anyone selling vaping products to under 18-year-olds, and consideration will be given to requiring vape vendors to obtain a liquor license.

    According to Glover, some subgroups are already at or below the smoke-free 2025 prevalence goal of 5 percent. “If tobacco harm reduction (THR) was fully adopted, then 5 percent is possible nationally,” she says. Allowing oral nicotine products and exempting noncombustible products from New Zealand’s high tobacco taxes, she believes, would allow manufacturers to reduce the prices for tobacco-heating products, making them more accessible to people who smoke. Oral nicotine pouches and snus would give people another smoking cessation option. “Based on the experience of Iceland and Sweden, we could expect New Zealand to experience ongoing rapid reductions in smoking prevalence,” says Glover.

    The war-on-drugs assumption that demand for the drug itself can be eliminated by measures on the supply side has not served society well more generally.”

    Derek Yach, global health expert

    A Desperate Measure

    Tobacco control advocates appear to view the generational smoking ban, first proposed by Singaporean researchers 2010, as a tool to force down cigarette consumption figures that have decreased little in the 20 years since the creation of the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Despite the many restrictions implemented globally, there are still about 1.3 billion smokers in the world.

    “The objectives of the FCTC are to ‘eliminate or reduce consumption of tobacco products—and reduce exposure to tobacco smoke,’” says Derek Yach, who as a cabinet director and executive WHO director was instrumental in creating the convention. “The FCTC does not set deadlines to achieve this, but subsequent sustainable development goals call for large declines in chronic disease deaths by 2030,” he says. “The WHO’s latest reports prepared for COP10 [the tenth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the FCTC], which is now set for February 2024, indicate that most countries are off track to achieve these goals. Note that unless smoking rates decrease fast, death rates from many major chronic diseases will not change.”

    While the FCTC does not envisage a generational smoking ban, some tobacco control activists view it as a key component of their “tobacco endgame” strategy. Most smokers, the measure’s proponents argue, start smoking at a young age; stopping the start by consecutively raising the smoking age would break the cycle of nicotine addiction.

    Despite New Zealand’s U-turn and a similar decision by Malaysia, where lawmakers abandoned plans for a generational tobacco ban due to constitutional concerns, the idea still finds support internationally.

    Singapore has been reported to be “open” to such plans. In 2022, Denmark unveiled proposals to ban the sale of cigarettes and nicotine products to any citizens born after 2010. On Oct. 5, 2023, U.K. Prime Minster Rishi Sunak expressed his support for a generational tobacco ban, saying it was the right step to tackle the leading cause of preventable ill health. According to a spokesperson, he upheld his proposal even after New Zealand repealed its version of the plan.

    The consultation period for the proposed legislation closed on Dec. 6, 2023. It has received support from organizations such as the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco (SRNT), which advised the U.K. government to extend the measure to all forms of recreational nicotine that are not approved as medical therapy for smoking cessation, including heated-tobacco products, e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, snus and oral nicotine pouches.

    Yach thinks this is a bad idea. “I don’t like the smoke-free generation measure, but it is sort of tolerable if confined to smoked products and if there are smoke-free options for nicotine use,” he says. “However, the war-on-drugs assumption that demand for the drug itself can be eliminated by measures on the supply side has not served society well more generally.”

    In a poll conducted on behalf of smokers’ lobby group Forest, nearly three-fifths of respondents agreed that when people are 18 years old—and thus legally adults—they should be allowed to purchase cigarettes and other tobacco products. The legislation may be published in Parliament in early 2024. However, at press time, reports suggested that the U.K. was backpedaling on the measure as well, saying the country might raise the legal smoking age to 21 instead.

    Untoward Effects

    Christopher Snowdon

    Due to the lag between smoking initiation and health outcomes, a generational tobacco ban would not affect tobacco-related deaths and disease for at least 40 years, according to Yach. “Given the reality that smoking rates among youth today in the U.K. and New Zealand are in low single digits, while rates are substantially higher among middle-aged adults, the policy would have negligible impacts on population measures of smoking,” he says. “The current youth trends simply need governments to stick with what is working already.”

    Any policy decision, Yach emphasizes, must be weighed against alternative ways to achieve the same objectives and against the probability of untoward effects. “The ‘generational ban’ has failed to consider both,” he says.

    Public health experts have warned that a generational ban would bring about many unintended consequences. In addition to restricting personal liberty, the arbitrary age restrictions would create absurd situations, such as a 28-year-old being deemed capable of purchasing tobacco, while a 27-year-old is not, according to Christopher Snowdon, head of Lifestyle Economics at the Institute of Economic Affairs, who also views prohibition as a driver of illicit trade.

    Yach fears a generational tobacco ban could set precedent that will make it easier to apply similar measures to other products such as alcohol and marijuana. And he warns against unintended consequences. “Will the experiences learn[ed] during the alcohol prohibition era apply?” he asks. “Will youth switch to more, other psychoactive substances, some having deadly consequences? Many will argue that, provided THR products are made substantially more available and attractive, young people may try and use a range of current and future psychoactive substances. Is this likely? We cannot know the answer to these questions until the policy starts rolling out. On balance, it seems prudent to not experiment with the lives of future generations.”

    Like Glover, he regards tobacco harm reduction, which is included in the definition of tobacco control of the FCTC text, scaled to reach adults who smoke and suffer the health effects, as having the greatest potential to save lives in the shortest possible time when compared to other measures, including the generational ban.

    “We know this to be the case based on empirical epidemiological and toxicological studies, foresight models by academics and industry, and the national experiences of Japan, Sweden and the U.K,” says Yach. “My own estimates suggest that if THR and more effective cessation products were fully scaled, we could expect 3 million fewer tobacco deaths annually from the early 2050s. All these deaths would be in adults who are smoking today—not among youth. There is no other intervention that comes close to doing this.”

    Stefanie Rossel is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial contributor. An experienced trade journalist, she combines sharp reporting skills with in-depth knowledge of the tobacco and vapor industries. Prior to joining Tobacco Reporter, Stefanie was editor-in-chief at Tobacco Journal International, where she worked for a decade. Fluent in English, German and French, Stefanie covers tobacco news around the world. She is based in Germany.