Details Unknown
What cannabis regulation in Germany will look like exactly remains unclear. The coalition is expected to introduce a cannabis tax; a recent study by Heinrich Heine University Duesseldorf estimates that such a tax could contribute €1.8 billion ($1.14 billion) annually to the state treasury. Legalization would bring in an estimated €4.7 billion per year due to additional revenues from corporate tax, trade tax and value-added tax as well as from savings in prosecution and the judicial system. It could also create 27,000 new jobs, the study found.
Apart from pharmacies, the licensed dispensaries mentioned in the coalition agreement reportedly might include tobacconist shops and perhaps even dedicated coffee shops as in the Netherlands, which tolerates recreational cannabis for personal consumption. The new government is expected to define thresholds for the content of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), the psychoactive ingredient in cannabis, in the products to be sold. The government might also review Germany’s traffic laws, which currently allow 1 nanogram of THC per milliliter of blood serum.
The legalization proposal, long opposed by previous Christian Democrat party-led governments, has triggered a heated debate in Germany. Physicians specializing in addiction treatment warn that it would boost consumption and encourage related issues, such as dependence, depressive and anxiety disorders, psychoses and developmental delays in young people. Meanwhile, law enforcement officials are skeptical that legalization will erase the black market. A tax, they claim, would make legal cannabis significantly more expensive, thus leading to competition between legal and illegal sources.
Georg Wurth, managing director of the German Cannabis Association, does not share law enforcement’s concerns. “The black market will at least be pushed back,” he says. “Every single euro of revenue that will be generated on the legal market will be retracted from the illicit market, and every percent that moves from the black to the legal market is a progress. I’d rather have a legal and a black market than a 100 percent illegal market. If you take cigarettes as an example, there is also a black market, but there are no plans to prohibit cigarettes in order to rein that in.”
The right pricing will be decisive for deflating the illegal market, Wurth adds. “All three coalition partners are aware that they shouldn’t overplay their hand if they really want to force back the illegal market. I am confident that they will succeed if they find the right approach at pricing. In Canada, it took about two and a half years until half of the cannabis revenues came from the legal market.”
Illicit cannabis currently retails at €10 per gram in Germany. Interestingly, this is also the sales price for medicinal cannabis in pharmacies. “Cannabis already is relatively inexpensive in Germany,” says Adrian Fischer, co-founder and managing director of Demecan, which supplies medicinal cannabis. “We presume that consumers will be willing to pay a higher price for legal cannabis for recreational purposes that has a better quality than illegal weed, but the price shouldn’t be much higher than €10. In addition, it has to be guaranteed that there are a sufficient number of points of sale for marijuana. If a consumer must drive 50 kilometers to the next legal dispensary, he is more likely to stick with his dealer round the corner.” If legal cannabis is priced competitively, Fischer forecasts that the German marijuana market will be worth €5 billion in five years.
While the German Cannabis Organization opposes a limit on the THC content, Fischer suggests linking it to certain age limits, as with alcohol. In Germany, drinks with a low alcohol content, such as beer or wine, can be legally purchased from the age of 16 while liquor drinkers have to wait until they turn 18. “Similarly, cannabis with a lower THC content could be made available for 18-year-olds and with a higher THC content for 21-year-olds,” says Wurth.