Category: Print Edition

  • Playing with Numbers

    Playing with Numbers

    Photo: Hafiez Razali

    How research methods distort nicotine effects and risks

    By Cheryl K. Olson

    “The paper seems like a joke.” That’s what Harvard researcher Miguel Hernan said recently to the journal Science about a report linking e-cigarettes and strokes.

    The article was concocted by a dubious research group, founded to help young international medical school graduates get coveted authorship credits. Its analysis of U.S. government survey data claimed that respondents who vaped had a higher risk of stroke, at younger ages, than those who smoked. Its glaring flaws included inflating the number of survey takers by tens of thousands and failing to correct for the relative youth of vapers.

    Despite this, the 2022 paper’s findings found their way into media headlines and anti-vaping advertising. The Science article credits Gal Cohen and Floe Foxon with sounding the alarm on this appalling study.

    Subtler issues that affect research quality, and how research is perceived by the public, are harder to spot. Research methods may seem a dull or arcane topic. But a peek at how the research sausage is made reveals some simple yet surprising ways that the process can go wrong.

    Sometimes old habits or unquestioned assumptions are to blame. Just as typewriters affect how we text on our mobiles, legacy cigarette research methods and mindsets influence how we study noncombustible nicotine products.

    Hours of Vaping?

    Everyone understands cigarettes. When it comes to totting up use, cigarettes are easy. They come in standard units. You light, puff and extinguish. Not so for products such as vapes. How, then, do researchers compare smoking with these new nicotine-delivery systems?

    “There’s a lot of research showing that people who use e-cigarettes graze throughout the day,” says Arielle Selya, who conducts nicotine product research at Pinney Associates. “Unlike cigarettes, there’s no defined stopping and starting. They don’t have to finish a discrete unit; they just puff on and off.” Measuring this kind of variable, intermittent activity is a challenge.

    This problem is not unique to vaping. Studying nicotine pouch use, I found unexpectedly wide variations in what people did and what they thought was normal. Some tossed a pouch in the trash after 10 minutes or 15 minutes. Others kept one in their mouth for a couple of hours. A few sometimes reused a pouch they’d started earlier or cheeked pouches of two different flavors at once.

    As an example of what can go wrong, Selya pointed to a recent study of vaping and respiratory symptoms. To the authors’ credit, they tried to measure heaviness of e-cigarette use. The problem was the poor fit between their question and the behavior. They asked, “How many hours did you use electronic cigarettes per day?”

    “I’m not a vaper, but that seems like such a strange question,” says Selya. “Like asking how many hours do you spend drinking water?”

    Better approaches to measuring nicotine product use include writing down what you’re doing whenever a device pings you (ecological momentary assessment) or in a daily diary.

    Twisted Terminology

    Another holdover from cigarettes is the way tobacco is seen as the default flavor for all nicotine-containing products. “With e-cigarettes, you have to add a tobacco flavor,” notes Selya. “But researchers often say ‘flavored’ when they mean ‘non-tobacco flavored’–in some communications even the NYTS team does this–but tobacco itself is a flavor! This generates misunderstandings.”

    Nicotine research terminology can defy common sense. Consider the concept of “abuse liability.” In everyday English, abuse implies harm. When the U.S. Food and Drug Administration assesses new drugs, stricter regulation may be required if there’s abuse potential, defined as “intentional, nontherapeutic use” to “achieve a desired psychological or physical effect.” An effect like euphoria, hallucinations or distorted thoughts or perceptions. 

    When it comes to reduced-harm nicotine products, abuse potential becomes, weirdly, a plus. A backhanded compliment. If you want to attract someone away from cigarettes, features like rapid nicotine absorption, relaxation and relief of withdrawal encourage that transition.

    Abuse liability also illustrates another nicotine methodology vexation: there is no agreed-on way to measure it. One article looked at comments made by the FDA on manufacturers’ submissions for multiple types of nicotine products. Regulators considered a whole range of measures related to abuse liability, from product chemistry and pharmacokinetics to subjective factors. Of the latter, “liking” the product turned out to be the most reliable and sensitive abuse liability measure!

    Misleading Measures

    Again, cigarettes are simple and familiar. Novel nicotine products, by contrast, come in ever-evolving variations. U.S. government surveys, such as the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) and National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS), measure trends in who is using what products. The results are widely used and reported. However, for survey results to make sense, people must understand the questions.

    Discrepancies in results suggest that research participants often misunderstand nicotine products and/or the terms being used to describe them. For example, answers about vaping brands and device types often don’t match. In the NYTS, just two-thirds of teens who said they “usually” used a pod/cartridge brand of e-cigarette (such as Juul, Logic or Vuse) also said they “most often” used a pod/cartridge device. Almost one in five adults in the PATH study had these kinds of mismatched answers about their vaping behavior. 

    Some questions have even larger errors. “The NYTS asks whether your e-cigarette product contains nicotine salts,” says Selya. “And overall, about 50 percent said they don’t know.”

    This is also true for so-called “concept” flavors, she notes. “Not strawberry-banana, but something like cosmic fusion. When youth are asked about concept or ice flavors, they don’t know the characteristics of their product, or maybe don’t understand those words.”

    NYTS first asked youth about tobacco-free nicotine pouches in 2021. That year, just 1.9 percent of teens reported ever using one. Checking the details, I found a flaw: The questionnaire defined nicotine pouches as “flavored.” However, over a third of teen ever-users said the pouch product they used was unflavored. (Perhaps they confused pouches and snus?) 

    A further example: the 2023 NYTS found that 1 percent of youth—an estimated 370,000—had ever used a heated-tobacco product. At the time, that product category was not sold in the United States.

    As Ray Niaura of New York University told me, “That can’t be right. Literally, it’s impossible. So that means it’s measurement error.”

    This suggests young survey takers were befuddled. “Kids aren’t going to know,” says Niaura. “‘Heated tobacco: Yeah. I smoked a cigarette. It’s heated. I light it on fire.’”

    Yet the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported the result without comment or explanation.

    If a product is only used by a small percentage of people, these sorts of errors could create unreal changes in year-to-year trends. The reporting of those potentially misleading trends affect the perceptions of academics, regulators and the public. “With that amount of uncertainty and some of the low numbers, it’s hard to figure out what’s the signal versus the noise,” notes Selya.

    Questionable Choices

    Another seemingly simple but complicated issue: Who counts as a current product user? Youth surveys typically ask “have you used e-cigarettes at all, even a puff, in the last 30 days?” Surveys aimed at adults commonly ask, “Do you currently use e-cigarettes some days, every day or not at all?”

    If you assume capturing any youth e-cigarette use is important, then “even a puff” makes sense. But it also makes it difficult to separate teens who are briefly experimenting from teens at risk for problematic ongoing use.

    In studies that look at how using nicotine products affect some aspect of health, researchers choose what outcomes to measure. Their choices can suggest biases or suspicious holes in what’s reported.

    A recent study using PATH data tried to compare e-cigarette use and the age at which people developed asthma. “Why age of asthma onset rather than whether they developed asthma at all?” says Selya. “Often, I read a study and think, did you look at these other related outcomes? If so, why weren’t they published?” This issue of results that may exist but aren’t reported are known as the “file drawer problem.” Preregistering study plans would avoid this issue.

    Researchers, Meet Users

    Before I dove deeply into tobacco harm reduction, my research focused on the effects of violent video games on youth. Finding discrepancies between research reports and what teens told me, I realized that many of the field’s most-cited “experts” had never actually played or even observed the games they studied.

    Similarly, many nicotine researchers seem to have never held or used the noncombusted products they study. This leads to findings that don’t reflect real-world situations. One example is an article by Sebastien Soulet and Roberto Sussman on metal contents of e-cigarette aerosols. They found that researchers were overheating tank vaping devices, generating aerosols that would be “likely repellent to human users.”

    “I think there’s a big disconnect and abysmally low involvement of actual consumers, the people affected by policies,” says Selya. Partnering with people who actually know and use novel nicotine products would be a giant step toward improved research quality.  

    References

    Foxon F. (2023). Discordant device/brand reporting among adolescents who used e-cigarettes in the National Youth Tobacco Survey. Nicotine and Tobacco Research. https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntad228

    Joelving F. (2024). Prescription for controversy. Science. https://www.science.org/content/article/questionable-firms-tempt-young-doctors-with-easy-publications

    Selya A, Ruggieri M, Polosa R. (2024). Measures of youth e-cigarette use: strengths, weaknesses and recommendations. Frontiers in Public Health. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1412406

    Soulet S, Sussman RA. (2022). A critical review of recent literature on metal contents in e-cigarette aerosol. Toxics. https://www.mdpi.com/2305-6304/10/9/510

    Vansickel A et al. (2022). Human abuse liability assessment of tobacco and nicotine products: approaches for meeting current regulatory recommendations. Nicotine and Tobacco Research. https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntab183

    Cheryl K. Olson is a California-based public health researcher who specializes in behavioral health issues and consults on tobacco product behaviors via McKinney Regulatory Science Advisors. She spent 15 years on the faculty of Harvard Medical School.
  • Shock Absorber

    Shock Absorber

    Photo: Alessandro De Leo | Dreamstime

    With an appropriate tax regime, fine-cut tobacco can provide a useful buffer between high-priced cigarettes and illicit products.

    By Stefanie Rossel

    Across Europe, three countries offer showcase examples of unintended consequences created by ill-designed tax policies. The fiscal frameworks in France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands prevent fine-cut tobacco (FCT) from fulfilling its buffer function in the nicotine ecosystem, leading to high levels of illicit trade. When taxed at comparatively low rates, FCT products can serve as a “shock absorber” between higher taxed factory-made cigarettes and illicit smokes. If the tax rates and retail prices of combustible cigarettes and FCT become too similar, fine roll-your-own (RYO) and make-your-own (MYO) products may lose their appeal to smokers with lower disposable incomes.

    In the European Union, home to some of the world’s leading RYO and MYO markets, France presents a prime example. “The market is riddled with illicit trade, as the taxation levels prevent FCT to fulfill its buffer function,” says Peter van der Mark, secretary general of the European Smoking Tobacco Association (ESTA). “Since 2020, volumes of FCT have consistently declined, by 8 percent in 2021, 13.7 percent in 2022 and 10.2 percent in 2023.” This decline is slightly more pronounced than that in other tobacco segments.

    On the bright side, according to van der Mark, French authorities appear to have belatedly recognized the negative impacts of their policies. Last month, the responsible minister acknowledged that beyond a certain point, raising taxes becomes counterproductive and boosts contraband, which benefits neither public health nor public finances. “We can only regret that it took one-third of the market to be illegal to come to that conclusion,” laments van der Mark.

    The U.K. faces a similar situation. According to van der Mark, that country’s government has nearly aligned the tax rates on FCT with those on cigarettes—and without consulting the industry. As a result, legal volumes have been declining substantially, benefiting smugglers and illicit traders. According to van der Mark, this is not only impacting manufacturers, distributors and retailers but also the finance ministry (and therefore U.K. citizens), which last year saw its tobacco tax receipts drop by nearly 15 percent compared to 2022—a loss of approximately £1.5 billion ($1.91 billion).

    Germany, the largest EU market for hand-rolling products, also hiked FCT taxes but managed to avoid the negative effects experienced by Britain and France, thanks to its incremental approach. “The ad valorem component on FCT increased progressively and moderately whilst step increases of the specific or minimum were always kept below 10 percent,” explains van der Mark.

    “In general, we consider the German tax model to be well crafted as it allows for predictability and ensures the market functions smoothly whilst allowing the government to pursue its treasury and health objectives,” says van der Mark.

    “Volume-wise, of course we note a decline in comparison with 2020 [consumption], which was exceptionally high due to the Covid-19 outbreak. In 2023, volume declined by 5 percent compared to 2022, confirming a declining trend in general.”

    This year, however, Germany’s market has benefitted from rising FCT taxes in the Netherlands. According to van der Mark, a 50 gram pouch now costs approximately €25 ($27.02) there, encouraging Dutch smokers to source their tobacco elsewhere, including in neighboring Germany.

    Across Europe, the general trend is toward less tobacco consumption, and FCT is no exception. “Inflation had a massive impact on consumer ability to buy tobacco products in 2022–2023,” says van der Mark. “Consumers down-traded or moved to FCT or illicit cigarettes. Although inflation has decreased, it remains very unequal from one country to another. Where inflation remains high, we expect sales of FCT to slightly increase, demonstrating once again the buffer function this product category can fulfill, provided it is taxed approximately.”

    “We consider the German tax model to be well crafted as it allows for predictability whilst allowing the government to pursue its treasury and health objectives.”

    STG Buys Mac Baren

    As the market contracts, the fine-cut industry has been consolidating. In June, Scandinavian Tobacco Group acquired family-owned Mac Baren Tobacco from Halberg for DKK535 million ($76.87 million). Founded in 1826, Mac Baren’s portfolio includes pipe tobacco brands such as Mac Baren, Amphora and Holger Danske as well as fine-cut tobacco brands such as Amsterdamer, Choice and Opal. The company also produces and sells nicotine pouches with the brands Ace and Gritt.

    Mac Baren sells its products in 74 countries and generates most of its net sales in the U.S., Denmark and Germany. Other key markets include the U.K., France, Spain and Italy. Headquartered in Svendborg, Denmark, the company has production facilities in Denmark and the United States (in Richmond, Virginia), and employs approximately 200 people full time.

    Both Mac Baren and STG are members of ESTA. “The reduction of family-owned companies in our sector is always regrettable, but at the same time, we are pleased to see that its traditional know-how will remain in the very capable hands of STG, a company that is committed to high-quality traditional smoking tobaccos,” says van der Mark.

    The FCT sector has consolidated at regular intervals, with the last wave being triggered by the EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) in 2014. At this time, van der Mark sees no indications of a new consolidation wave, however.

    New Regulations on the Horizon

    Whether the pending TPD revision will change that situation is up for discussion. The European Commission’s evaluation report, expected toward the end of 2024, should provide some insights into the future regulatory environment. According to van der Mark, a 2021 report on the TPD application identified topics likely to be discussed further in the future.

    “This includes the field of ingredient regulation, where we have seen several member states taking cavalier initiatives and establishing outright bans of certain ingredients,” he says. “In general, we fear that the notion of ‘flavors’ has been largely misunderstood and will be subject to debates that will most likely be based on assumptions more than on actual scientific underpinning. Labeling and packaging, where the commission is no longer hiding its preference for plain packaging, will also be an issue, and, of course, the regulation of novel tobacco products.”

    With a new commission poised to take office in November, van der Mark expects more emphasis on novel nicotine products and less impact on the FCT segment. “For fine-cut tobacco, the whole legislation has already been there since TPD2,” he says.

    “We are more concerned about the ingredients regulation. We believe that the ingredients which are in tobacco products, representing between 1 percent and 3 percent of the total weight, are nonconsequential, but the commission is continuously looking at the ingredients as if they would make the product even more problematic from a health perspective. We think that the commission simply has the wrong end of the stick.”

    Whether the EU’s approach toward tobacco products will change with the new crop of lawmakers remains to be seen. “At this stage, it is not sure whether the ‘shift to the right’ will affect the functioning of the EU Parliament and its ‘great coalition’ made of the Socialists and Democrats, Renew and center-right European People’s Party groups,” says van der Mark.

    “An interesting statistic, however, is that about 60 percent of the elected members of the European Parliament are coming from parties that are not governing in their national jurisdictions. This means that we could see a European Parliament ‘free’ from the guidance of the national government, at least to a certain extent.”

    Stefanie Rossel is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial contributor. An experienced trade journalist, she combines sharp reporting skills with in-depth knowledge of the tobacco and vapor industries. Prior to joining Tobacco Reporter, Stefanie was editor-in-chief at Tobacco Journal International, where she worked for a decade. Fluent in English, German and French, Stefanie covers tobacco news around the world. She is based in Germany.
  • Something to Smile About

    Something to Smile About

    The CoEHAR is studying the impact of reduced-risk products on oral health.

    Photo: Andrei

    By Stefanie Rossel

    Polosa and his team anticipate observing better gingival/gum conditions, improved tooth color and reduced dental plaque accumulation in smokers who stop smoking after switching to alternative tar-free nicotine products. | Photo: Chris Frenzi

    In the context of smoking-related issues, oral health has long been neglected. According to Riccardo Polosa, founder of the Center of Excellence for the acceleration of Harm Reduction (CoEHAR) in Italy, this can be explained by several factors. “Smoking is primarily linked to fatal systemic conditions such as cancer, heart disease and respiratory problems, which tend to overshadow its effects on oral health,” he says.

    In addition, until recently, dentists were less aware of the detrimental impact of smoking on oral health, particularly in managing gum disease, tooth loss and dental implant procedures. What’s more, because oral health is influenced by multiple factors, including diet, oral hygiene practices and genetic predispositions, it is difficult to isolate smoking as a culprit.

    “Dentists have historically been hesitant to invest their professional efforts in helping clients quit smoking,” Polosa says. “However, there is now an increasing recognition among dental professionals of the significant benefits of smoking cessation in improving treatment outcomes, and more and more dentists are increasingly promoting smoking cessation strategies and advocating for the use of tar-free nicotine products.”

    To investigate changes in oral health parameters and dental aesthetics in smokers who switch to tar-free nicotine products, the CoEHAR earlier this year launched the SMILE study with funding from the Foundation for a Smoke-Free World (FSFW), which recently rebranded as Global Action to End Smoking. Polosa says the study is the first and only of its kind, as it aims to measure risk reduction, harm reversal and smoking cessation combined, which sets it apart from other trials that focus solely on cessation.

    Geographically Diverse Approach

    The international, randomized controlled trial involves 474 participants in four countries—153 in Catania (Italy), 45 in Warsaw (Poland), 168 in Chisinau (Moldova) and 108 in Bandung (Indonesia). The decision to focus on these countries was based on strategic and practical considerations, Polosa explains. “Mandated by the FSFW’s mission, the selection of low[-income] and middle-income countries was crucial to facilitate the dissemination of high-quality tobacco harm reduction [THR] science through collaborative partnerships and knowledge exchange,” he says. “Additionally, factors such as low operational costs and strong interest in participating in the study were significant in their inclusion. Italy was specifically chosen to take a leadership role in training and coordination within the study.”

    All four countries have high smoking rates, providing a substantial pool of participants for studying smoking cessation and switching behaviors. “The selection of these countries enables the SMILE study to capture a broad spectrum of socioeconomic, healthcare and cultural factors that influence smoking behavior and the adoption of THR,” says Polosa. Each country represents a distinct healthcare system, ranging from well-established systems in Italy and Poland to less developed systems in Moldova and Indonesia. This diversity enhances the study’s relevance and generalizability on a global scale.”

    Indonesia presents a unique case due to its widespread use of clove cigarettes, which account for nearly 90 percent of the Indonesian cigarette market. “Studying THR in a context where very popular traditional tobacco products dominate can offer valuable insights into cultural attitudes toward smoking cessation and alternative nicotine-delivery systems,” says Polosa. “Smoke from clove cigarettes contains high particulate matter and toxicants, making them as harmful as conventional tobacco cigarettes. Therefore, THR is strongly needed in Indonesia, with advocacy and education being key to successful implementation.”

    Dentists increasingly recognize the significant benefits of smoking cessation in improving treatment outcomes. | Photo: RomanR

    State-of-the-Art Technologies

    For their study, the SMILE researchers recruited cigarette smokers interested in switching to alternative products. The participants were randomly allocated to receive either standard care, including cessation counseling (i.e., “very brief advice”), or the nicotine product of their choice plus very brief advice. The trial also includes a reference group of individuals who had never smoked. The researchers then recorded participants’ cigarette consumption and tar-free nicotine product at every visit. Additionally, participants were asked to return all empty, partly used and unused consumables. Throughout the study, the researchers monitored smoking and tar-free nicotine product use via a tracker app.

    “The SMILE tracker app is an integral component of the SMILE study, designed to monitor participants’ behaviors and lifestyle choices. Through daily prompts, the app assists in tracking cigarette consumption, the use of nicotine products, and regular oral hygiene practices such as brushing, flossing and mouthwash use. Although personal oral hygiene practices were carefully tracked, there was no emphasis on oral hygiene education or management of dietary patterns,” says Polosa.

    “A standardized approach was implemented to mitigate the effect of these potential confounders on both primary and secondary study endpoints,” he continues. “Participants were explicitly advised to continue their established oral hygiene practices for the entire duration of the study. Furthermore, adherence to specific restriction criteria before each scheduled study visit was emphasized to prevent any confounding of the collected data.”

    To prevent confounding factors, oral hygienists removed plaque, calculus and stain from the study participants’ teeth 14 days prior to baseline measurements. “This critical element is absent in most clinical trials,” says Polosa.

    Chronic periodontal disease is common in smokers that is unlikely to improve with cessation alone, according to Polosa. “Therefore, participants with periodontitis have been excluded, and only participants with mild to moderate gingivitis have been recruited, as they are more likely to maximize the impact of the intervention.”

    The researchers use state-of-the-art technologies, such as spectrophotometers and quantitative light-induced fluorescence scanners, to quantify tooth discoloration and the amount of dental plaque.

    “These study endpoints measure important patient factors that may drive behavior change,” says Polosa. “This is particularly persuasive for young adults, for whom a cardiovascular-cancer-respiratory risk-based narrative is either ineffective or counterproductive and for whom concern about bad breath and poor dental aesthetics due to enamel discoloration and ‘tar’ stains may be a much more significant reason to stop smoking.”

    The Importance of Aesthetics

    The SMILE study allows volunteers to choose their own type of tar-free nicotine product, says Polosa. “This personalized choice is likely to enhance adherence, retention, and optimize compliance, thus maximizing cessation of tobacco cigarettes,” he explains. “This unique approach also generates results that are not product-specific and therefore more generalizable and realistic for implementing such a strategy in the real world.”

    According to Polosa, the researchers enroll only those who would not otherwise commit to a smoking cessation counseling program but are prepared to choose from smoking alternatives such as e-cigarettes and tobacco-heating products. The study has been designed to allow participants to tailor their own “nicotine experience” by selecting the tar-free nicotine product that aligns most with their preferences, thereby maximizing the transition away from tobacco smoking and reducing the likelihood of relapse.

    The study is not designed to coerce participants to avoid tobacco smoking completely, he says. Dual use is not prevented; therefore, the sample size has been oversampled to ensure that enough exclusive users of tar-free nicotine products by the end of the study are included.

    “The SMILE study also provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact on oral health and dental aesthetics among individuals who simultaneously smoke conventional cigarettes and use tar-free nicotine products,” says Polosa. “Different dual-use patterns exist—e.g., strong switchers versus light switchers—and are likely to have varying impacts on overall oral health. We expect to observe progressive changes with different patterns of dual use.”

    Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the SMILE study is its inclusion of aesthetics. Polosa says that stained teeth and tobacco odors are a growing concern, especially among young smokers, who demand not only healthy mouths but good-looking smiles.

    “Everyone wants to have a perfect dentition, as it helps in interpersonal contacts and raises value in the job market,” he says. “In our social media-driven age, vanity plays a significant role in influencing behavior. The desire for an attractive appearance, including a bright smile, is often a powerful motivator, especially among younger demographics who are highly engaged with social media platforms.”

    Evidence from literature demonstrates that using images of damaged and tar-riddled lungs does not act as an effective deterrent to smoking, he says. “This is partly because people do not respond well to negative messaging and because they do not identify such images with their own bodies. The focus on aesthetics—rather than vanity—is important because we are conveying a positive outcome message for smoking cessation, leveraging the explosion in social media posts of happy, healthy people with bright smiles.”

    Appealing to individuals’ desire to present themselves well and feel confident not only acknowledges the importance of aesthetics but also offers practical solutions for oral healthcare practitioners, such as aesthetic-enhancing alternative nicotine products for those who may struggle to quit smoking, according to Polosa. “The goal here is to harness today’s emphasis on appearance to encourage healthier behavior,” he says. “I predict that the argument for better aesthetics and oral health will become a more prominent and effective tool in smoking cessation efforts.”

    The study’s results are expected in 2025. Polosa and his team anticipate observing better gingival/gum conditions, improved tooth color and reduced dental plaque accumulation in smokers who stop smoking after switching to alternative tar-free nicotine products.

    Stefanie Rossel is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial contributor. An experienced trade journalist, she combines sharp reporting skills with in-depth knowledge of the tobacco and vapor industries. Prior to joining Tobacco Reporter, Stefanie was editor-in-chief at Tobacco Journal International, where she worked for a decade. Fluent in English, German and French, Stefanie covers tobacco news around the world. She is based in Germany.
  • The Case for Nicotine

    The Case for Nicotine

    Image: Maridav

    Many policymakers see nicotine as part of the problem; THR proponents see it as part of the solution. Understanding why such deeply opposing views are held also provides a view of the way ahead.

    By Barnaby Page

    Advocates of tobacco harm reduction (THR) and the industry making THR products are accustomed to fighting battles on multiple fronts—simultaneously contending with the threat of flavor bans, new taxes and misrepresentations of science, for example. But perhaps the most essential battle of all is the one against the demonization of nicotine; it’s possible to imagine vaping continuing to exist without nontobacco flavors, for example (even if it might be a less appealing kind of vaping), and it’s possible to imagine consumers continuing to buy THR products even if taxes hike their price, but it’s not really possible to imagine THR without nicotine.

    This means that, while its opponents are not wrong to say that that nicotine is to an extent an initiator and certainly a perpetuator of smoking, it’s also a “friend” as much as an “enemy” in the quest to reduce smoking rates and smoking-related harm. Persuading others, including lawmakers, the medical profession and the public health establishment, to see it this way is a key and decidedly nontrivial task for the THR movement, one that could have profound effects on future policy and regulation concerning THR products and therefore their uptake.

    Smoking and Addiction

    Opposition to nicotine probably derives, at heart, from two somewhat different but related factors: cigarettes and addiction. First, it’s easy to forget—but essential to remember—that until around a decade ago, nicotine effectively meant cigarettes for most people in most countries. Sure, there were other delivery mechanisms (e-cigarettes were already starting to make their presence known; oral products of different kinds had traction in some places; a few people even smoked cigars or pipes), but the cigarette was dominant … and so for the average person, who in a specialist field like this also includes the average policymaker, nicotine was inextricably tied to smoking, which in turn was inextricably tied to combustible cigarettes.

    As a result, it’s not surprising that many people find it difficult to separate the effects of nicotine from the effects of cigarette smoking in their head. (Even some people who ought to know better seem to find it tough.) Meanwhile, public health messaging had for decades reinforced the same point—Superman’s foe, the evil Nick O’Teen, is a classic example.

    Plus, and this brings us to the second point, nicotine was not only that generally sinister thing, a “chemical,” but it was one you could become addicted to. Again, it’s understandable that people who weren’t specialists in addiction science wouldn’t realize that the concept itself was a much-debated thing, and people who had grown up in a War on Drugs era when “drug addicts” were seen as an undifferentiated group of miserable, ruined junkies naturally saw addiction itself—regardless of the addictive substance concerned—as a terrible condition.

    Again, of course, there are those who ought to know better who use the concept to spread distrust; it amused me a few years ago when the then U.S. surgeon general, Jerome Adams, said that nicotine was “as addictive as heroin.” Leaving aside the whole issue of how you assess comparative addictiveness, the logical corollary here was that heroin is no more addictive than nicotine, but I doubt he would have wanted to spread that as a public health message.

    THR advocates need to recognize that the perception is just as potent as the reality.

    The Power of Perception

    In any case, some definitions of addiction or dependency now stipulate that it must be harmful, and it’s highly questionable whether nicotine—once separated from cigarette smoking—falls into that category. So there’s even a case to be made that nicotine addiction doesn’t exist as a problem in the first place. But the bottom line is that it is widely perceived to be harmful and addictive.

    And that is a huge obstacle for THR to overcome. Nicotine is absolutely central to the THR proposition. Indeed, it is founded on the distinction between nicotine and smoking, as famously expressed by Michael Russell when he observed that people smoke for the nicotine but die from the byproducts of smoking. It is the ability to make this distinction that leads to the concept of the continuum of risk—the idea that though different product categories (cigarettes, oral, vapor, heated tobacco, nicotine-replacement therapy [NRT] and so on) may all deliver nicotine, they do so with different risks, with some categories (for example, NRT, pouch and vape) at the bottom of the range while others (all of them involving combustion) are at the maximum.

    This concept is hardly news to anyone involved in THR or indeed anyone in the tobacco industry. But it’s worth repeating that it may not only be an unfamiliar idea but an apparently contradictory one to people outside those worlds if they believe that risk is inherent to nicotine use. Before any progress can be made on improving policy and regulation, this is a misconception that needs to be corrected, and for the reasons that I’ve discussed, it can be quite a deep-seated one. Of course it’s illogical—it’s like concluding that because it is very dangerous to drive on icy roads at high speed, it must be equally dangerous to drive on any road at any speed—but being illogical doesn’t mean it’s not thoroughly believed in by many people.

    The continuum of risk also means that where public health is concerned, logical regulation would focus on the delivery mechanisms (the icy road and the 90 mph) rather than the nicotine (the existence of cars). Except insofar as it may encourage use of more-risky delivery mechanisms, it doesn’t make sense for nicotine itself to be a prime concern. The on-off debate about very low-nicotine cigarettes (VLNCs) is a vivid illustration of this; there are surely questions to be asked about a policy that retains the dangerous thing (combustion) and concentrates on eliminating the far less dangerous thing (nicotine). To be fair, the research on how consumers might use VLNCs in real life is not yet conclusive, and it is possible they would have a deterrent effect beneficial to public health. But it’s difficult to escape the impression that the image of the evil Nick O’Teen is lurking in the background here as well.

    A survey on U.S. vape stores published in 2023 by ECigIntelligence, one of a regular series, found that misconceptions about vaping—which often means misconceptions about nicotine—are a persistent problem.

    What Regulation Might Look Like

    Of course, we can’t realistically expect that lawmakers are going to leave nicotine entirely alone. So if we were going to regulate nicotine the substance—as opposed to characteristics of the delivery mechanisms, and nonproduct issues such as minimum purchase age, advertising and public usage—what areas could be looked at?

    We could regulate nicotine content, which we could measure in two ways: either absolutely—the total amount in a cigarette stick or a vape pod, for example—or comparatively, by measuring concentration. The latter makes more sense for product categories where there is notable variation in product size (for example, e-liquid bottles).

    We could also look at regulating the nicotine yield, which is the amount of nicotine actually emitted from the product and thus available for consumption by the user; although clearly dependent on the nicotine content level to some extent, this is a more meaningful number in terms of effects. (A hypothetical product with very high content yet very low yield would contain an awful lot of nicotine that might just as well not have existed—it would be irrelevant in any calculation of risk or health impact.)

    We could also look at nicotine flux, the rate of nicotine emission—a crucial difference between combustible cigarettes and vapes, for example, and one that strongly affects the actual experience of use. And finally, just to be complete, of course we would want to regulate safety where nicotine is sold in very high concentrations such that accidental consumption of a relatively small amount could have seriously deleterious effects. The perception of risk here is, again, quite possibly exaggerated, but measures like childproofing do nothing to undermine the value of THR, they may prevent some accidents, and many countries have implemented them. This aspect, at least, is a no-brainer ….

    But (apart from the childproof caps) does regulating nicotine itself actually solve any problems that aren’t addressed by, for instance, regulating underage purchase—especially if we don’t consider dependency in itself, among adults, to be a problem?

    The THR movement will have to work relentlessly to keep the focus on risk profiles of delivery mechanisms, not on nicotine.

    The Gateway Effect

    The biggest contender for “problem to be solved” could, of course, be the so-called “gateway effect”—the idea that even when less risky forms of nicotine consumption are available, enjoyment of and/or dependency on them (take your pick) could lead the user toward more-risky forms.

    A logical riposte would be that though doubtless there are individual cases of such a gateway being passed through (as there are individual cases of almost anything you care to imagine), there is no convincing evidence of it happening on a large scale—and in any case, other measures could deter it. If we want to prevent people progressing from vapes to combustibles, the THR argument would go, surely it’s sensible to make vapes more attractive and combustibles less (whether that’s through differential taxation, marketing restrictions, flavor restrictions or other measures). Going in the other direction—for example, reducing nicotine levels in THR products (which are often less effective than combustibles at delivering nicotine to the body anyway)—would likely just have the effect of making THR less attractive to existing smokers and discourage them from switching.

    Nevertheless, the gateway effect is a widespread concern that ties in at an emotional level with the idea of nicotine as an irresistibly addictive substance leading users further and further into its grip. And once again, THR advocates need to recognize that, as is so often in this field, the perception is just as potent as the reality—often more so. Addressing that will be a long and tough task, but the agenda for THR should be clear.

    The THR movement will have to work relentlessly to keep the focus on risk profiles of delivery mechanisms, not on nicotine itself. It will have to encourage policy based on proven risk, not on nicotine-specific characteristics such as concentration that in themselves don’t obviously connect to risk. It will have to put forward convincingly the idea that THR products need to be at least as attractive to the consumer as combustible products if their public health potential is to be realized—this means, in effect, undertaking the very difficult task of persuading policymakers that we should encourage nicotine consumption via THR.

    And, to achieve all this, it will have to educate not just policymakers but also health professionals, the media and the public. This includes actively countering misinformation, but simply saying people are wrong is clearly not going to be persuasive in itself, and it’s those THR advocates who engage directly and deeply with the “nicotine skeptics” who will end up making the biggest difference.

    For not only can nicotine be part of the solution rather than part of the problem, ignoring this is also a risk in itself. We shouldn’t lose the focus on reducing smoking by becoming distracted into reducing nicotine consumption.

    Barnaby Page is the editorial director of Tamarind Intelligence, the publisher of ECigIntelligence, TobaccoIntelligence and CannIntelligence. As a journalist, he has been covering the worldwide reduced-risk nicotine sector since 2014, with a particular focus on public health and regulatory issues.In his current role, he manages Tamarind’s editorial and reporting teams, producing a wide range of nicotine-related content. He previously spent 30 years as a reporter and editor for newspapers, magazines and online services, specializing in technology and business. He is based near London, England.
  • The Heart of HTMS

    The Heart of HTMS

    woodthorpe
    Ron Woodthorpe

    Celebrating the life and legacy of Ronald Woodthorpe

    By Marissa Dean

    Ronald Woodthorpe passed away on March 26, 2024, at age 86 after a three-year fight with dementia. He is missed by his surviving family and friends, but his legacy remains at the heart of Hampshire Tobacco Machinery Services (HTMS).

    Born in London in 1938, Woodthorpe was always a hard worker, training as a toolmaker after finishing secondary school. He took a job with Robert Legg in 1964 as a toolmaker—the company manufactured tobacco machinery and domestic appliances at the time. The next year, Robert Legg was acquired by American Machine Foundry Co. and renamed AMF-Legg, specializing in machinery for preliminary leaf processing and the processing and manufacture of cigarette and pipe tobacco. During this time, Woodthorpe developed a love for the industry that would span decades.

    In 1974, Woodthorpe was approached by John Payne, a director from AMF-Legg, with the idea to start a new business reengineering and upgrading machines for the tobacco industry. Thus, John Payne Engineering was born, and Woodthorpe was named technical director. The company quickly grew, supporting larger manufacturers like Imperial and BAT. Woodthorpe was involved with developing an upgraded, faster hinge-lid packer based on the Molins HLP 2 during his time at the company, and he inspired a technology transfer with Bulgartabac in the 1970s.

    John Payne Engineering was eventually sold in 1986 to Evered Holdings and later became part of GBE International. This didn’t sit well with Woodthorpe, who decided to start his own business: HTMS.

    HTMS began as a supply company in 1987, supplying spare parts for Molins and Sasib/AMF machinery from a small office and store in Southampton. Woodthorpe’s contacts in the industry supported him, and the business developed well. In 1988, Woodthorpe’s daughter, Gillian, was hired to assist with business administration. Two engineers were then hired to facilitate workshop activity.

    Three years later, the company moved to a larger office with stores beneath and a separate workshop facility. There, they began rebuilding Sasib/AMF soft packing machinery lines. Within the next five years, Woodthorpe’s daughter-in-law, Sara Fielder, and his youngest son, Peter, joined the company. By 1998, HTMS moved again to a larger space across the road, which is where it currently resides.

    Over the next couple years, HTMS bought the rights, technical drawings and casting patterns for the high-speed XL Hinge Lid Packer from John Payne Engineering and GBE making and packing, and Robert Brown, a Molins packing expert who worked with Woodthorpe at John Payne Engineering, was hired. The hinge-lid packer became HTMS’ flagship machine, and Brown’s addition to the team allowed Woodthorpe to further develop the high-speed hinge-lid packer and its associated downstream machinery.

    Woodthorpe was determined, a hard worker, a hard taskmaster and a man who generally would not take no for an answer. The tough standards he placed on himself were reflected in his work ethic and care—he tried every day to do the best he could for his business and his family. Those who knew him felt he was a very fair man who would always get you where you wanted to be and would support you in a time of need.

    “Ron always saw the best in people and encouraged those to find it in themselves,” said Brown. “In that way, he inspired others to achieve levels that they never thought possible, and I was certainly one of those. As long as you tried your best, you were never a failure in Ron’s eyes.”

    HTMS continues Woodthorpe’s ethos of service—the ability to supply immediately and support in times of need. HTMS understands that off-the-shelf supply is paramount to the business and its customers, thanks to Woodthorpe’s dedication and care over the years. Today, the company’s main focus is cigarette and cigar packaging, but it still provides primary equipment in the form of tobacco-cutting machinery and cigarette/cigar making machinery and spares. 

    “People talk about a work-life balance—well, Ron was one of the only people I’ve ever known who loved to ‘live to work’ as much as he did ‘work to live,’ simply because he had an equal amount of love and passion for work as he did his family,” said Sara. “Ron worked longer and harder than most because he wanted to make sure his family were taken care of but also because he loved the job and everything that it encompassed.

    “Ron’s dedication to taking care of ‘all of us’ over the years gave us, the HTMS team, the drive to continue in succeeding where he left off after his retirement, even more so now to continue further to honor his memory,” she said.

    Dedication is a clear theme of Woodthorpe’s life. He retired in 2020 at age 83 after a full life and career, leaving his company under the care of Peter, Sara and Jeff Perress. Even when he retired, it was less from a desire to retire and more from Covid-19 pandemic concerns, according to his son.

    In 2021, Woodthorpe was diagnosed with vascular dementia. Despite the struggles that caring for a loved one with dementia brings, Peter remembers his dad’s lessons of “Never put off till tomorrow what you can achieve today” and “If it’s not fun, don’t do it.”

    HTMS carries Woodthorpe’s core beliefs in quality, value and service at the heart of the business. And though he will be missed, his legacy will live on. “Ron’s enthusiasm, dedication and enjoyment for the job was passed on to all who worked for him,” said Howard Rich, a former colleague.

    Marissa Dean joined Tobacco Reporter in the summer of 2018 as a copy editor.Since that time, she has taken on additional responsibilities, including feature writing.Her skills span the publishing industry from layout and design to copy editing to content creation.
  • The Best of Both

    The Best of Both

    From left to right: Lucas Dockorn, Franz Demeulemeester and Jay Barker at the YTL’s office in Santa Cruz do Sul | Photos: Taco Tuinstra

    Newly created Your Tobacco Link harnesses the strengths of JEB International and Tobacco Trading and Services.

    By Taco Tuinstra

    The concept for the merger was sketched on a napkin during a dinner in Antwerp. “It was very old-school tobacco,” recalls Jay Barker, founder of U.S.-headquartered JEB International Tobacco Co. and one of the partners in the new business.

    Yet the resulting company, Your Tobacco Link (YTL), is anything but old school. Operationally and administratively headquartered in Santa Cruz do Sul, the epicenter of tobacco cultivation in Brazil, YTL has been designed with the modern, rapidly changing leaf market in mind. It is lean, well connected and fleet footed, ready to scour the globe at a moment’s notice for the right tobacco at the right price. “We have an unrivaled capacity to secure almost any tobacco,” says Franz Demeulemeester, a key executive who came from YTL’s other predecessor company, Belgium-based Tobacco Trading & Services (TTS).

    That ability stems from the rich experience and expansive professional networks of JEB and TTS. Both companies have been in business for more than two decades, but each has different strengths and focus areas. “TTS can supply leaf out of 36 origins, including quite a few niche markets that are difficult to penetrate,” says Demeulemeester. Its sourcing areas include off-the-beaten-path origins such as Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Bangladesh, for example. One area the company was struggling in, however, was the United States—a market where JEB was strong. “Jay had customers we did not have and vice versa,” says Demeulemeester.

    By combining their assets, the partners reckoned they could step up their service to their customers. “We saw lots of synergies between what JEB and TTS were doing; it is one of those rare instances where one plus one truly equals three,” says Barker, noting that in some mergers, “one and one doesn’t even equal two.”

    Despite the obvious advantages, the “marriage” didn’t happen overnight. Rather, it was preceded by a long courtship. Barker had been running JEB’s Brazilian operations from an office in Santa Cruz do Sul. As the work mounted, he started contracting ever more of it to TTS’ logistics department. A full merger seemed the next logical step, but Barker, a sharp businessman who values his independence, hesitated. The case for joining forces proved too compelling, however, and as time went by, he came around. “I thought, why not; it actually makes a lot of sense,” says Barker.

    He has not regretted the move. In the short time since its creation, YTL has already expanded, enlarging its footprint in Brazil with a more robust farmer base and entering Malawi with new growing operations, for example. “Now we also have Zimbabwe on our radar,” says Barker.

    Third-party processing has been a sensible and cost-effective solution for YTL and its customers.

    Deep Experience

    In addition to an extensive network of global origins, the new company can draw on profound industry knowledge. “Annoyingly for Jay, he is dealing with elderly people,” jokes Demeulemeester, who started his tobacco career in 1984, cleaning a sample room in Santa Cruz do Sul. “TTS has a lot of, let’s say, experienced people.” Add up the tobacco tenures of just the company’s most senior executives, which also includes industry veteran John Derek Visser, and the tally handsomely exceeds 150 years.

    Which is not to say that the company’s management is dominated by gray-hairs. Aware of the importance of succession planning, YTL has been actively recruiting a new generation of leaders. That crop includes professionals such as Lucas Dockhorn, the scion of a prominent local tobacco family who unlike some of his contemporaries preferred to stay in the Santa Cruz do Sul region rather than move to a city.

    “‘Tobacco’ is truly in my blood,” says Dockhorn, referring to the tendency of tobacco leaf merchants to strongly identify with their profession. Despite the industry’s negative public image (even in tobacco powerhouse Brazil), it has been surprisingly easy to attract young people to the business, according to Barker. “It can be harder to get a bank to deal with your business than to find a new young guy,” he marvels.

    We saw lots of synergies between what JEB and TTS were doing; it is one of those rare instances where one plus one truly equals three.

    Competitive Strengths

    Because of its wide variety of sourcing areas, YTL can offer customers substitutes when supply in one area is either short or expensive, or both, as was the case in Brazil this season (see “The Great Scramble,” Tobacco Reporter, May 2024). “We have not only the ability to offer those alternatives but also the knowledge to guide customers to the appropriate replacements—that you can replace BO1 grades from Brazil with Chinese tobacco from the Hainan region, for example,” says Demeulemeester.

    Rather than focusing on individual transactions, YTL is keen to establish long-term, friendly working relationships with its customers. “We will take the job from A to Z,” says Demeulemeester. “To us, business is about more than just buying the best quality for the best price. We can help with logistics or propose better freight rates, for example; you will be surprised how creative we can be.”

    Low overheads and short communication lines are additional advantages. “We are very flexible and quick to act,” says Barker, explaining that what the company’s sales team lacks in size it compensates for with ambition. To keep down its expenses, YTL outsources leaf processing. This marketing season, it contracted with Brasfumo in Venancio Aires, but the company has worked with other partners as well. Pointing to the excess capacity in southern Brazil, Barker says third-party processing is a sensible and cost-effective solution for YTL and its customers.

    As in every merger, both parties faced a learning curve as the companies came together. For Barker, the deal presented an opportunity to learn about new tobacco origins, including some he wasn’t aware of before as leaf suppliers. “Azerbaijan, for example, is a little gold mine with a very solid supply chain,” he says. “I didn’t even know they grew tobacco.” To familiarize himself with all those areas, Barker traveled more in 2022 than he had in many years. “It’s been an exciting journey for me,” he says, stressing the continued importance of face-to-face meetings even in the Zoom era. The TTS team, in turn, was impressed by the dexterity of JEB’s operations. “The decision-making process is much quicker at JEB,” says Demeulemeester. “That’s definitely a plus point for the customer.”

    The merger remains a work in progress. Tobacco is a notoriously conservative business, and some customers need time to approve new suppliers, even if they have known the people running those businesses for many years. For the time being, customers of YTL’s predecessor companies will have the option to continue doing business with either JEB or TTS. “The Idea is to eventually have everything under one umbrella—but if needed, we still have the mechanisms to use both JEB and TTS,” says Barker, who expects the merger to be fully completed within a year.

    In the meantime, YTL is already thinking about the future. Among other projects, the company is considering expanding into supplemental agricultural commodities, such as hemp fiber and industrial hemp. Such initiatives will provide the firm with additional streams of income in the medium term while also protecting it against the impact of declining global cigarette sales in the long run.

    This, in turn, fits well with the partners’ shared ambition to leave a legacy. “Our goal is to create a sustainable company where our youngsters will have a good future,” says Barker. “The decisions we make today will have a real impact on these people and their families. Our job is to provide a stable foundation.” That means being creative and thinking outside the box while at the same time being realistic about the possibilities. “We’ll be chasing real opportunities, not rainbows,” says Barker.

    Taco Tuinstra is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial director.Based in Raleigh, North Carolina, USA, he coordinates the work of staff writers and contributors.On his watch, Tobacco Reporter has won several awards for editorial excellence.Since joining the magazine in 1997, Taco has visited more than 75 countries to meet industry representatives in their markets and to report tobacco news firsthand.
  • A Broader Approach

    A Broader Approach

    According to experts, established tobacco control measures may be insufficient to achieve the desired reductions in smoking and the associated burden on healthcare systems. | Photo: Taco Tuinstra

    To lower the health and economic burden of smoking, lawmakers should incorporate tobacco harm reduction into their policies.

    By Stefanie Rossel

    The figures are staggering. Smoking cost the world economy an estimated $1.85 trillion, or about 1.8 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), in 2012, according to a monograph published by the World Health Organization and the U.S. National Cancer Institute in 2016.

    The authors distinguish between direct and indirect costs. Direct costs, which include both healthcare expenses, such as physician fees or medical supplies, and nonhealthcare costs, such as transportation, were approximately $467.3 billion, representing 6.5 percent of global health expenditures, or 0.5 percent of global GDP. Indirect costs, which include the value of productivity and lives lost due to tobacco-related diseases, were an estimated $446.3 billion for disability and $938.6 billion for mortality.

    Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for almost 40 percent of the expenses incurred globally due to tobacco use, with direct costs representing up to 4 percent of total health spending in these countries. The total economic costs of smoking in LMICs ranged from 1.1 percent to 1.7 percent of GDP in the countries investigated in the report compared with an estimated 2.4 percent in the Americas and 2.5 percent in Europe.

    Some of the data in the monograph dates back to the late 1990s, and it is likely that costs have increased since its publication. While some research released since the publication of the paper suggested that reductions in smoking prevalence would translate into lower healthcare costs quite quickly, these papers focused primarily on the healthcare systems of large, wealthy and technologically advanced societies rather than LMICs, where 80 percent of the world’s smokers live.

    People in LMICs are significantly more likely to die from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which include cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases, cancer and diabetes, along with mental and neurological conditions. According to the WHO’s website, NCDs account for the deaths of 16 million people prematurely, i.e., before their 70th birthday, worldwide each year.

    Tobacco use represents the leading risk factor for NCDs, ahead of other risk factors such as air pollution, excess sodium intake, alcohol abuse or sedentary lifestyles. According to WHO data, tobacco currently accounts for 8.2 million deaths per year, including the effects of exposure to secondhand smoke, a figure that is projected to increase over the coming years.

    However, the WHO is far from achieving the U.N. Sustainable Development Goal of reducing premature deaths from NCDs by one-third by 2030. Depending on the source (and even the WHO’s numbers are inconsistent here), there are currently between 1.1 billion and 1.3 billion smokers in the world, and the figure is likely to rise, due in part to population growth.

    One of the major weaknesses of prevention is that the benefits take a long time to materialize.

    Focus on Prevention

    “When governments and government agencies lie about the health costs of vaping relative to smoking, they are betraying the trust of the public.”

    According to critics, the WHO’s established tobacco control measures are insufficient to achieve the desired reductions in smoking and the associated burden on healthcare systems. To accelerate progress, policymakers need to fundamentally change their approach, argues Andrzej M. Fal, president of the Polish Society for Public Health, who spoke at the Warsaw Global Forum on Nicotine in June.

    “If we enforce policies that reduce the risk of smoking now, there will be a significant reduction in cancer in 15 [years] to 20 years,” Fal pointed out. Because chronic diseases account for 90 percent of premature deaths, he argued, investing in their prevention is more cost-effective than treatment. The WHO itself recommends prevention as a response to noncommunicable diseases. Fal cited calculations from the global health body showing that every dollar invested in smoking prevention saves $7.43 down the road.

    Based on such considerations, Fal urges authorities to place greater emphasis on prevention and tobacco harm reduction. In 2023, the Polish Parliament analysis office asked Fal to prepare an analysis of the state of the tobacco “epidemic” in Poland. Fal and his co-authors concluded that the country lost 250,000 years of life as a result of tobacco consumption.

    Education about health, Fal suggested, should begin in kindergarten. People who are already ill and refuse to quit smoking should be incentivized to minimalize their risk using less hazardous nicotine-delivery alternatives. “If someone is already seriously ill,” Fal explained, “they can still achieve a better quality of life, live longer, and cost the system less,” he said.

    Fal proposed that each country launch at least one prevention clinic, which should be accessible without referral and would offer access to anti-smoking therapy, nicotine-replacement pharmacotherapy and harm reduction products. The clinics should also be responsible for regional health prevention programs and smoking information campaigns.

    Governments, he suggested, should set tobacco tax rates based on the relative harm of each product category, following the principle of “less harm, less tax.” Taxes on cigarettes—the most harmful tools for tobacco consumption—should rise “radically but progressively,” said Fal, who also called for publicly funded and supervised studies assessing the efficacy, safety and harm reduction in cases where the existing evidence was insufficient.

    One of the major weaknesses of prevention, however, is that the benefits take a long time to materialize. In a U.S. study analyzing the relationship between cigarette sales and lung cancer deaths, for example, it took 20 years for the first measures taken to curb tobacco consumption to show up in lower lung cancer death statistics. That time frame is too long for many lawmakers. “Politicians are not interested in investing in prevention as its benefits are seen long after they have left the government,” said Fal.

    Progress is also obstructed by conflicts of interest. In 2018, he noted, Poland’s tobacco-related health expenditures plus productivity loss were between PLN7 billion ($1.71 billion) and PLZ8 billion in 2018, whereas excise and VAT income from cigarettes amounted to PLN23.5 billion.

    Every dollar invested in smoking prevention saves $7.43 down the road.

    Myopic MPs

    Sinclair Davidson

    All too often, politicians are uninterested in considering the potential unintended consequences of their decisions. For example, Australia’s rules requiring vapers to get a medical prescription and banning imports of disposable e-cigarettes have caused the illicit market to flourish. Ninety-two percent of Australian vapers currently source their vapes from the black market, exposing them to unrelated products. More than 70 tobacco shops have gone up in flames since Health Minister Mark Butler started his crackdown on vapes. Police suspect some of the attacks are carried out by criminal groups as retaliations against store owners who refuse to stock their black market products.

    “Australia tends to pursue harm minimization policies in most areas—except in tobacco and nicotine consumption,” said Sinclair Davidson, professor of institutional economics at RMIT University, Melbourne. “Here, Australia pursues the most socially harmful policies that the so-called public health lobby can dream up. The costs this policy’s short-sightedness imposes on the economy are likely to be large but hidden or indirect. For example, when cigarettes are stolen from convenience stores, this results in insurance costs being increased on those stores and prices being increased for all consumers.

    “Similarly, when criminal profits are increased, criminal behavior in the economy increases. When criminal behavior increases, police budgets increase, resulting in higher taxes for all citizens and higher levels of criminal behavior. We are all victims of crime and criminal behavior—except, of course, the public health lobby, who have built careers off their policy work, and politicians and law enforcement agencies who get expanded budgets and powers as a result of poor policy. It is a vicious cycle of ‘Baptists and bootleggers’ who benefit while the rest of society suffers.”

    Meanwhile, the decline in tobacco tax revenue even as smoking rates have stabilized suggests that people are still smoking—they’re just not smoking legal cigarettes. “The challenges are twofold,” said Davidson. “Government itself has become addicted to tobacco excise revenue, and that source of revenue has become unreliable. The subsidy from smokers to the rest of the population has been captured by criminals. Criminality imposes huge costs on society. This occurs through the normalization of violence and the misallocation of resources from legal activity to illegal activity. Furthermore, criminality has a corrupting influence on law enforcement activities. Poor policy corrodes civil society by undermining public trust in public institutions. When governments and government agencies lie about the health costs of vaping relative to smoking, they are betraying the trust of the public and undermining their moral worth in society.”

    By contrast, Sweden’s success in reducing smoking rates by accommodating snus is a public health success story, according to Davidson. Since 2008, Sweden has slashed its smoking rates from 15 percent to 5.6 percent, according to Smoke Free Sweden. The nation’s smoking prevalence is expected to dip below 5 percent this year, making it the first country to achieve “smoke-free” status as defined by the WHO.

    Sweden’s incidence of cancer is 41 percent lower than in the rest of the EU, corresponding to a 38 percent lower level of total cancer deaths. The country has a 39.6 percent lower rate of death of all tobacco-related diseases compared to the EU average. “I don’t know to what extent Australian consumers are familiar with snus and what the uptake would be—but the principle remains. Low(er) risk products on the market result in consumers substituting away from the high(er) risk products,” said Davidson.

    Stefanie Rossel is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial contributor. An experienced trade journalist, she combines sharp reporting skills with in-depth knowledge of the tobacco and vapor industries. Prior to joining Tobacco Reporter, Stefanie was editor-in-chief at Tobacco Journal International, where she worked for a decade. Fluent in English, German and French, Stefanie covers tobacco news around the world. She is based in Germany.
  • A Clean Sweep

    A Clean Sweep

    Holger Twrdy

    At Cerdia’s much-anticipated 12th filter colloquium, speakers detailed the progress in reducing the industry’s carbon footprint.

    By Stefanie Rossel

    “On the road toward a sustainable future” was the theme of Cerdia’s 12th filter colloquium, which took place in Freiburg, Germany, June 3–5. The conference has a rich tradition. Except for the time of the Covid-19 pandemic, the acetate tow manufacturer’s event has taken place every three years since the mid-1980s. This year, speakers from all parts of the tobacco industry supply chain shared their strategies to reduce their carbon footprint.

    Sustainability has always been important to Cerdia, which was created after the Blackstone Group purchased Rhodia’s acetate tow business in 2016. However, as Cerdia CEO Jens Ebinghaus explained in his opening speech, the topic gained even greater prominence after the acquisition and the company’s subsequent rebranding.

    Cerdia employs approximately 1,100 people worldwide and has revenues of around $750 million. In addition to its Freiburg facility, it operates factories in Santo Andre, Brazil; Serpukhov, Russia; and Kingsport, Tennessee, USA. While investing in core filter tow technology and diversifying into new business segments, the company focuses heavily on ESG, which encompasses energy diversity and efficiency as well as safety, compliance and governance, and community engagement.

    In 2023, Cerdia allocated 45 percent of its capital expenditure to projects supporting sustainability. According to Ebinghaus, the business environment for tow manufacturers has become significantly more volatile since 2019. The rising costs of raw materials, for example, has forced manufacturers to increase efficiencies. At times and often regionally, the industry also suffered from issues relating to transportation, disrupting supply chains. In addition, the geopolitical situation has become more challenging, with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East erecting new hurdles for business, for example. At the same time, business opportunities have emerged from next-generation products such as heated-tobacco products (HTPs), sales of which have been growing rapidly in recent years.

    Maria Viloria

    Lots of Levers

    Part of Cerdia’s roadmap to sustainability was a “double materiality” assessment, carried out in 2022, according to Maria Viloria, Cerdia’s head of sustainability and R&D. Through a survey, the company learned what was most important to its customers, suppliers and other stakeholders. Based on these findings, it created a “significance map” that put Cerdia’s ESG priorities in perspective. The company then developed a set of sustainability objectives that are in line with the U.N. Sustainable Development goals and established a sustainability committee to support its strategy.

    By 2030, Cerdia aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent, its landfill waste to zero and its water withdrawal by 10 percent compared to 2019. Medium and major injuries are to be reduced to zero and complaints to under 0.5 per delivered kiloton. The company has been sourcing its wood pulp from 100 percent certified sustainable forestry for years.

    By 2030, Cerdia aims to have trained 95 percent of its employees in compliance and to have fully implemented the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). In autumn 2024, Cerdia will move its Basel headquarters to a new, carbon dioxide (CO2)-neutral building. The company, which in 2021 received a silver medal from the business sustainability rating provider Ecovadis, is now aiming for gold.

    Cerdia’s new biosteam project, which is planned to come online in the first quarter of 2025, will play a vital role in the company’s CO2 reduction strategy by using biomass for steam production, according to Holger Twrdy, Cerdia’s vice president, manufacturing. The power plant will reduce the Freiburg factory’s CO2 emissions by 15 percent to 20 percent, or 26,000 tons annually, and Cerdia’s overall CO2 emissions by 10 percent.

    Further CO2 reduction of around 1,500 tons per year will come from a new absorption column in the Freiburg plant’s acetone absorption division, which will also start production early next year. In addition, the company will expand an existing CO2-free residential heating project, supplying green energy to Freiburg’s Dietenbach district.

    Esther Abe

    HTPs on the Rise

    Esther Abe, Cerdia’s market intelligence manager, provided an overview of the global tobacco market during the colloquium. After years of decline, cigarette sales stabilized in 2020, and Abe expects them to grow slightly, with increases in HTP and super-slim cigarette sales offsetting declines in other categories.

    She expected the global cigarette market to reach 5.55 trillion sticks in 2024 and anticipates it to increase to 5.7 trillion units by 2030. According to Abe, China’s cigarette market is likely to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.3 percent by 2030 due to the rising popularity of super slims and restrictions on vape products while HTPs are the fastest-growing segment in the rest of the world.

    Abe expects sales of combustible cigarettes to remain stable in China but to decline in the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Americas and Europe. The main sources of volume growth will likely be Africa and the Middle East, she said.

    The HTP category is envisaged to grow by a CAGR of 17 percent, to reach approximately 526 billion sticks in 2030. While Cerdia will remain focused on filter tow for the tobacco industry, which accounts for 85 percent of its business, it is also exploring other lines of business. To that end, the company recently established a new business development (NBD) team, which is exploring complementary acetate tow applications.

    According to NBD head Josef Hudina, the product is meltable in various recipes, soluble in many eco-friendly solvents and hydrophobic enough to be suitable as a plastic substitute. Moreover, it can be processed in the form of fibers, films, granules or powders. With its new cellulose acetate compounds, CellspherA Micro and CellspherA Granules, Cerdia offers an alternative to fossil materials that are widely used in the personal care industry. As the EU microplastic restriction boosts the demand for natural alternatives, Hudina is convinced that cellulose acetate could pass the EU microplastic exemption.

    Speakers at the colloquium anticipated tobacco industry regulations to increase further.

    Cerdia Product Stewardship Manager Emmerich Sackers detailed the scope and requirements of the European Deforestation Regulation, which entered into force in 2023 and will apply to large businesses from the end of this year.

    Jan Muecke, managing director of the German Association of the Tobacco Industry and New Products, pointed out that the recent decision at the 10th Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) to focus on the environmental concerns described in FCTC Article 18 will likely influence how the EU Tobacco Products Directive, the U.N. International Plastic Treaty and the EU Single-Use Plastics Directive end up dealing with cigarette filters.

    Further legislative initiatives are underway under the European Green Deal, including the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation, the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, the CSRD, the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation, the EU Batteries Regulation and the Green Claims Directive.

    Jens Ebinghaus

    Comprehensive Approach Required

    Instead of a one-size-fits-all approach, the road to sustainability is a puzzle with many pieces, all of which are vital. Logistics, for instance, account for 11 percent to 12 percent of total CO2 emissions, as Sergio Barbarino, chairperson of the Alliance for Logistics Innovation through Collaboration in Europe (ALICE), explained.

    The EU aims to decarbonize its transportation sector by 2050. ALICE has identified five pillars for the future of logistics: In addition to energy-efficient fleets and assets that use the lowest possible emissions energy source available, which presently is at the center of efforts, the focus in the mid-term should be on the management of demand, smart use of transport modes and sharing of fleets and assets.

    Procurement is another factor. Benjamin Saur, global category manager of sustainability at BAT, shared that 42 percent of his company’s greenhouse gas emissions are under the procurement department’s remit. BAT has designed a Supplier Climate Enablement Program that segments the approach to neither overburden suppliers’ own organizations nor BAT.

    In manufacturing, the biggest lever for increasing sustainability lies in increasing machine and process efficiency, according to Klaus Masuch, head of strategic product management secondary at Koerber Technologies. Options for actions, he said, are machinery-driven, people-driven and service-driven improvements along with data-driven and software-driven improvements, with a focus on tobacco savings and emphasis on the development of eco-friendly alternatives, such as biodegradable filters.

    Stefanie Rossel is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial contributor. An experienced trade journalist, she combines sharp reporting skills with in-depth knowledge of the tobacco and vapor industries. Prior to joining Tobacco Reporter, Stefanie was editor-in-chief at Tobacco Journal International, where she worked for a decade. Fluent in English, German and French, Stefanie covers tobacco news around the world. She is based in Germany.
  • Bearing Fruit

    Bearing Fruit

    Photo: Taco Tuinstra

    Alliance One’s seed breeders in Brazil are boosting crop quality and yields while improving disease resistance and tolerance for extreme weather conditions.

    By Taco Tuinstra

    Small may be beautiful, but in some cases, bigger is better. Take tobacco seeds, which range between 0.5 mm and 1 mm in diameter. A single gram of the material can contain a whopping 10,000 seeds.

    While that may seem efficient, seeds of that size are also difficult to handle. That’s why Alliance One International (AOI) has installed a pelleting machine at its Global Research, Development and Deployment Center in Passo do Sobrado, Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil. In a process similar to that used by pharmaceutical companies in pill production, the device coats tobacco seeds with a mix of inert materials, including clay (drug companies use gelatin), to beef them up to more manageable dimensions. The seeds that exit the machine are up to 50 times bigger than the ones that go in, allowing the grower to plant them accurately.

    The seed pelleting machine is only one of many investments at the center’s seed industrialization unit, which was inaugurated in January of this year. The facility also houses equipment that performs functions such threshing, grading, upgrading, drying and finishing—capabilities that help improve germination, stimulate healthy, consistent crop development and increase yield. The unit, which sits on an 82 ha farm housing greenhouses, laboratories and other key infrastructure, has an annual tobacco processing capacity of nearly 2 metric tons and the ability to pelletize more than 200,0000 cans of seed for sale each year.

    In addition to commissioning new equipment, the unit has been expanding its skills base, hiring agronomists, biologists and agricultural engineers, among other professionals. During the Brazilian crop’s peak period, the center employs approximately 100 people.

    The investments are part of AOI’s endeavor to strengthen its global function using existing capabilities. AOI has been a major supplier in Brazil’s tobacco seed market for years, selling not only to its contracted farmers but also to other leaf merchants. Roughly 40 percent of Brazil’s tobacco volume, or more than 100,000 hectares, are produced with AOI seeds, according to the company.

    Keen to share the “fruits” of the labor in Passo do Sobrado with its other origins, the seed industrialization unit now also services AOI operations outside Brazil. “Basically, we transformed a local research center into a global research center,” says Helio Moura, AOI’s vice president of global crop science and value chain. Already supplying AOI in Guatemala, Argentina, Turkiye and Thailand, the center is currently in the process of entering additional markets.

    According to Moura, the new unit provides the company with greater quality control and makes it possible for all activities to be governed by the company’s internal integrated quality management system. “Improved quality control opens doors to selling our seed in new markets at a faster speed, increases customer and farmer satisfaction, and drives efficiencies within our business,” he says.

    Those are important benefits because seed breeding is a finicky, labor-intensive and time-consuming business. For example, plants must be pollinated flower by flower—a delicate process that doesn’t lend itself to mechanization. Getting the necessary approvals and certifications requires time too. When you add up all the steps, creating a new variety can take up to 10 years.

    Moura likens the process to a funnel. “You have thousands of breeding lines, then we start selecting and narrowing it down until we are able to launch a better variety than we currently have,” he says, adding that there is always room for improvement. “The latest variety is not perfect, just superior to the previous one,” he observes.

    A single gram of material can contain a whopping 10,000 tobacco seeds. | Photos: Taco Tuinstra

    The seed industrialization unit breeds for characteristics such as quality, yields, disease resistance and tolerance for extreme weather conditions, an attribute that has become increasingly important in recent years, as was tragically demonstrated in early May when Santa Cruz do Sul suffered the worst flash floods in living memory.

    To ensure the required variation, the seed industrialization center houses a germplasm bank with thousands of “mothers” and “fathers” for burley, flue-cured and dark tobaccos, along with oriental styles. “We have access to more than 3,000 different tobacco varieties to cross and create new, unique strains,” says Moura. The resulting hybrids don’t produce seeds, which means they are impossible to replicate and thus guarantee return business for AOI. At least once every three years, seed samples in the germplasm bank are tested to make sure that they are germinating. That way, the company knows they will be available when it needs them.

    With the help of DNA markers, AOI’s scientists identify the desirable qualities. Advancements in biotechnology have made the work quicker, easier and more accurate. “Thirty years ago, there were only a few tools for making selections; nowadays, instead of looking for the phenotypes in the fields, we can look inside the plant and see the genes,” marvels plant breeding supervisor Elaine Batista. What’s more, the cost of equipment has decreased significantly, allowing biologists to make selections quicker, more accurately and with less effort.

    To ensure that the results of its research and development are rolled out correctly, AOI works closely with its contracted farmers. A new variety may deliver superior yields under controlled conditions, but if it’s improperly deployed in the field, the grower will not enjoy the full benefit. “So we spend much time training our growers on the correct way to work with the seeds,” says Moura.

    Aware of the importance of capturing and retaining knowledge within their organization, the scientists meticulously document their work. “For every project, we create a business case and a project brief. If someone asks about it 10 years from now, we can save time and money,” says Moura, who at previous employers faced many situations in which colleagues inquired about a past project only to be told that the results were no longer available, forcing the company to reinvent the wheel. And while it may be tempting to document only the projects that worked, the seed industrialization unit insists on documenting both its successes and failures. “We don’t have the time or money to spend on things that don’t add value,” says Moura.

    Even as demand for cigarettes stagnates and some nicotine users are switching to tobacco-free products, the work carried out at the seed industrialization unit is likely to remain relevant far into the future. As a respected flavorist pointed out during a recent Coresta meeting, consumers are able to tell the difference between nicotine created in a laboratory and nicotine derived from natural tobacco leaf. The depth of expertise and the sheer variety of genetic material housed in Passo do Sobrado will enable the unit to continue developing varieties that not only improve farmers’ operations but also meet and exceed consumers’ expectations for many years to come.

    Taco Tuinstra is Tobacco Reporter’s editorial director.Based in Raleigh, North Carolina, USA, he coordinates the work of staff writers and contributors.On his watch, Tobacco Reporter has won several awards for editorial excellence.Since joining the magazine in 1997, Taco has visited more than 75 countries to meet industry representatives in their markets and to report tobacco news firsthand.
  • Brand ‘Zambia’

    Brand ‘Zambia’

    Photo: Taco Tuinstra

    Operating in the shadow of its tobacco powerhouse neighbor, Zimbabwe, Zambia is trying to make a name for itself on the global market.

    By George Gay

    When researching leaf tobacco production in Zambia, it is almost de rigueur to seek an answer to the question of why the country grows a Virginia flue-cured crop only about one-eighth the size of that produced by its neighbor Zimbabwe. After all, Zimbabwe has a land mass only about 50 percent of that of Zambia, and the populations of the two countries are comparable.

    One of the answers normally given to this question is that tobacco has been prioritized in Zimbabwe because it is a hugely important contributor to the country’s GDP and foreign exchange earnings whereas it has been less important in Zambia, where mining plays a dominant role. Of course, this explanation seems to beg the question since both countries are rich in minerals and both have soils and climates ideal for growing tobacco, but that doesn’t mean the explanation is wrong. Presumably, sometime in the past, those who took control of the region of Africa now made up of Zambia and Zimbabwe decided, for whatever reasons, on where they should prioritize mining and agriculture, and those priorities remain in force today because change, even if desirable, is sometimes impossible or at least difficult to bring about.

    Decades ago, a tobacco grower of my acquaintance told me that Zambia struggled to attract international tobacco buyers who, after spending months in Zimbabwe each year, were reluctant to move on to Zambia to buy what was then a small crop, and without the prospect of a significant number of buyers showing up, there was no viable way of increasing the size of the crop and attracting more buyers …. If it wasn’t a catch-22 situation, it was close to it.

    Zambia produces about 30 million kg of flue-cured and 8 million kg of burley annually.

    Limits to Production

    Albert van Wyk

    Ironically, when significant change did come about in Zambia, it came in the form of a boost from Zimbabwe. Zambia’s current level of tobacco production can be traced back to the 2002–2003 season and the arrival of Zimbabwean growers whose land had been taken from them under compulsory acquisition policies brought in from 2000 under former President Robert Mugabe’s land redistribution policies. From that point on, apart from a hiccup that occurred about 10 years ago, production increased steadily.

    And contrary to the impression that might have been given above, tobacco comprises an important business in Zambia, which produces flavorful flue-cured and burley between September and April in its southern, eastern and central provinces, about 70 percent of it rain-fed and 30 percent under irrigation. It is clearly important in rural areas and, also, less obviously, in urban areas, in part because it helps to reduce population drift to the cities. Tobacco is produced by about 24,000 growers, and about 270,000 people depend on its production for their livelihoods. Most of its leaf is processed locally by Tombwe Processing and exported, mainly to China and Japan, for use in cigarette manufacture, earning much-needed foreign exchange.

    But having made the case for the importance of tobacco, it must be said that unless something unexpected occurs, it is unlikely that Zambia will in the future significantly increase the size of its tobacco crops from their current annual levels of about 30 million kg of flue-cured and 8 million kg of Burley. And here, at least, the reasons are not difficult to discern.

    Albert van Wyk, a Zambian tobacco grower for 40 years and the general manager of the Tobacco Association of Zambia (TAZ), told me during a telephone conversation in April that “compliance,” specifically its environmental aspects, limited the amount by which the tobacco crop could be expanded. To comply with buyer and manufacturer requirements, it was necessary for growers to maintain sustainable woodlots to produce the fuel they needed for curing, and these currently could only just keep abreast of current production; they could not be expanded easily and quickly to allow for a major increase in production. The only other option would be to move to using coal for curing additional flue-cured, but coal, which is produced in Zambia, raises its own environmental concerns, is relatively expensive, and its use might be phased out soon.

    The TAZ clearly takes seriously issues of compliance, which go far beyond the maintenance of woodlots, and van Wyk told me that the industry, which is fully private, liked to think of itself as self-regulating within the laws of the land. Currently, it was trying to establish “Brand Zambia” in the market, something that would put it ahead of Malawi and Zimbabwe. In fact, not only is tobacco production self-regulating in Zambia, but it is also self-propagating. Perhaps reflecting the relatively lowly status of tobacco growing in the country, there is no facility to train growers, so it keeps going on an informal apprenticeship scheme whereby established growers teach and mentor younger growers, as well as farm hands, who need to be skilled.

    Tobacco cultivation is clearly important in rural areas and, also, less obviously, in urban areas, in part because it helps to reduce population drift to the cities.

    Compliance

    So far, in talking about why it is unlikely that production will increase significantly in Zambia, I have ignored the elephants in the room—grower tobacco prices, efficiencies and profitability, which these days are connected to “compliance” because compliance, in all its guises, doesn’t come cheaply. Generally, prices on Zambia’s tobacco market, which runs from April to August and which are based on contracts, are not at a level to inspire major production increases.

    Having said that, this year’s crops are of good quality and are short in a year when all the major flue-cured and burley producer countries have come up with smaller-than-expected quantities of these types, so prices are likely to be better. In fact, van Wyk, who was in the process of selling his tobacco when I spoke with him, said that Zambia’s growers were expecting increases of $0.40 per kilogram and hoping for $0.80 per kilogram. “In a year of a shortage, I think things have to shift,” he said. “If they aren’t going to shift now, when will they shift?”

    Nevertheless, van Wyk is nothing if not practical, and he acknowledges that even though prices might not be as high as growers would like them to be, tobacco is still a better value crop than others. Tobacco, he said, would pay a grower’s medical bills and school fees and on a community-wide basis allow the building of schools and other social facilities. And in this sense, he is politely dismissive of the representatives of nongovernmental organizations who show up from time to time promoting moves away from tobacco and into other crops and business activities. And it is not hard to see his point. Tobacco growers such as van Wyk didn’t come down with the last shower of rain; they have been around for a long time. During their careers, they, like the rest of us, will have been looking for ways to make more money by doing less. They will have been down these other avenues, so the fact that they are still in tobacco tells its own story.

    Sealed Systems

    Van Wyk is politely dismissive, too, of the sorts of generational smoking bans being debated in the U.K. and discussed elsewhere. He sees such bans as playing a part in shifting the tobacco business from what he calls the honest trade to the dishonest trade. Again, it is easy to see his point and, indeed, wonder whether the problem doesn’t run deeper than he suggested. Is this just a demand issue or a supply issue also? Is the line in the sand between the honest and the dishonest trade maintained even if noncompliant tobacco is available in a year such as this, when there is a shortage of the main cigarette tobacco types? Is there no crossover? It seems difficult to imagine that there are two sealed systems working alongside each other—one involving sustainably grown compliant tobacco sold through proper channels and used in licit manufacture and the other comprising noncompliant tobacco grown unsustainably, sold through opaque channels and winding up with illicit manufacturers.

    The reason why this question must be asked goes back to the fact that Zambian growers are hoping for good prices this year but are not sure of them. Why not? If the two closed systems described above were in operation, prices would be bound to rise in a year of shortage, especially since licit manufacturers do not keep stocks as big as once was the case. The fact that higher prices are not guaranteed seems to suggest that there is some crossover—that noncompliant tobacco enters the mainstream, something that would clearly put downward pressure on prices—as well as call into question the very idea of compliance, sustainability and traceability.

    Of course, the above comprises just hypothetical questions, but it is worth giving some thought to them because there is another reason why the trade in noncompliant leaf might be more invasive than otherwise imagined—the permeability of some borders. Recently, people in the U.K. and some other countries have had to consider more closely than in the past the legacies left behind by colonialism. As you would expect, the reactions to such reflections have varied, at least in the U.K., but only the willfully obdurate cling to the claim that there have been no negative outcomes. Some of these outcomes are now widely discussed, though, often, the underlying reasons for them are not: for instance, the “creation” of African nations by the drawing by non-Indigenous people of boundaries seemingly heedless of the historical understandings and sensitivities of the way in which Indigenous people ordered their lives. And, certainly, this seems to be the case with Zambia, which has borders with eight countries, including Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Given the circumstances under which these borders were decided upon, I would be reluctant to use the word “smuggling” when talking about some of the cross-border movement of leaf tobacco; perhaps “osmosis” would be a better word.

    George Gay is Tobacco Reporter’s European editor, but his territory spans the globe. Based in London, George has covered the tobacco industry since 1982, initially for a U.K.-based publication and since 2004 for Tobacco Reporter. George’s understanding of industry issues, combined with his keen sense of observation and dry wit, have earned him a loyal following among Tobacco Reporter’s readers.