Missing figures
One of the weaknesses of the toolkit is its lack of supporting figures, and you have to wonder why this is so. On Jan. 13, it was announced that, during December 2020, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, working in conjunction with FDA agents, had seized 42 shipments from China that contained 33,681 “units of e-cigarettes,” later confirmed to comprise 33,681 individual e-cigarettes, each with a flavored cartridge. The seized goods were said to have a manufacturer’s suggested retail price of $719,453. Now I know there is a tendency for certain authorities in the U.S. to panic, but it seems odd to me that this haul should be the subject of a press announcement. After all, it doesn’t seem big enough to have threatened the end of civilization. I mean, it’s not like the borders had been crossed by a deadly virus.
Nevertheless, given that the 33,681 units were the result of a week-long joint operation by the CBP and the FDA, it is perhaps likely that the total haul for fiscal year 2021 (Oct. 1, 2020, to Sept. 30, 2021) will be higher than that for fiscal year 2020, which saw 93,590 units seized as part of 69 incidents, especially since the fiscal year 2020 haul was up significantly from that of fiscal year 2019: 14,418 units seized as part of eight incidents.
The trend is upward. I couldn’t obtain figures for fiscal years 2017 and 2018 but was told that, since the start of an FDA enforcement policy in January 2020, the number of seizures had increased by a factor of eight, which I took to mean that the numbers for 2017 and 2018 would have been low to negligible—as you would have expected.
Will the trend continue upward? Almost certainly in the short-term to medium-term because the FDA describes its enforcement activities as continuing and aggressive, though, being charitable, there will be some downward pressure because, presumably, it will take a while to filter through to some manufacturers that this enforcement policy is in place.
The FDA press note announcing the December 2020 seizures said that it and the CBP had been looking to intercept “counterfeit or other violative e-cigarettes, including certain flavored e-cigarettes imported to the U.S. that did not meet the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act) requirements as amended by the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (Tobacco Control Act).” Counterfeit trade is likely to continue at a rate that will be partly determined by the success or otherwise of the continuing strategy of seizures and, therefore, the profitability of the operations of those offering such products. At the same time, the import of products including illicit flavors is likely to increase, despite the downward pressure mentioned above, simply because a strong demand has built up for these products among adults. A caveat has to be added here, however, because it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that flavored products might be passed for sale as part of the FDA’s review of premarket tobacco product applications for vapor products. But I wouldn’t hold out too much hope. The press note contained copious amounts of the usual hand-wringing about flavored vaping products and their effect on young people.
The press note also includes a quote about how protecting U.S. consumers from “illicit and especially harmful tobacco products, such as counterfeit or flavored e-cigarettes, is of utmost importance to the FDA.” The note said, “we will continue to investigate and remove from the marketplace products that pose a particular danger to the public health.” As far as I could ascertain, however, the dangers described on a CDC website to which I was directed by the FDA apply to both licit and illicit products and, in any case, are shot through with qualifications along the lines of “might be” and “could in the future” or are the sorts of dangers that people, young and old, are exposed to while walking down the street.
A recent study, reported by Oliver Milman in The Guardian in February, found that, worldwide in 2018, air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for more deaths than tobacco smoking and malaria combined. I would imagine that the number of deaths caused by vaping with nicotine is some way down the list—perhaps just above the number of deaths that occur each year after people are attacked by mutant goldfish.