Legal cigarette sales in Australia have dropped 22% in the past year, according to data published yesterday (September 3) from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; however, industry experts point out that not having the overall smoking rate mirror that number exposes the growing dominance of the black market and the challenges it poses for enforcement and government revenues. The Treasury expects tobacco excise collections to fall to A$7.1 billion ($4.6 billion) this year, down 57% from the 2019–20 peak of A$16.3 billion ($10.6 billion), despite years of sharp tax hikes.
Excise increases of more than 280% since 2013 have lifted the price of a 25-pack to around A$50 ($32.50), driving many smokers toward illicit alternatives costing less than half as much. The Australian Border Force estimates organized crime controls 75% of the trade, smuggling in the equivalent of A$3 billion ($2 billion) in untaxed tobacco last year alone. More than 120 Victorian outlets have been fire-bombed since 2023 in gang turf wars.
While smoking rates have nearly halved since 2010, health groups warn progress has slowed, even as public finances are squeezed.










