Tag: Brand Finance

  • Brand Ranking Released

    Brand Ranking Released

    Photo: PMI

    Marlboro remains the world’s most valuable tobacco brand, but smokeless alternatives are gaining ground.

    Contributed

    The total value of the world’s top 10 most valuable tobacco brands has decreased by 6 percent, with eight out of 10 brands experiencing a decline in brand value this year, according to the latest ranking by Brand Finance, a leading brand valuation consultancy. The ranking reveals a significant shift in the industry toward smokeless alternatives, driven by changing consumer preferences and increasing regulatory pressures. Despite these changes, traditional combustible tobacco brands remain the most valuable, supported by loyal customer bases and effective pricing strategies.

    IQOS (brand value up 8 percent to $3.5 billion) is the fastest-growing tobacco brand, driven by rising revenue from smoke-free products. Philip Morris International reported smoke-free products reached nearly 40 percent of total net revenues in the fourth quarter of 2023. This was driven by the continued growth of IQOS, which has now surpassed Marlboro in net revenues, solidifying its position as the leading premium nicotine brand less than 10 years after its launch.

    Despite a 6 percent drop in brand value to $32.6 billion, Marlboro retains its position as the world’s most valuable tobacco brand for the 10th consecutive year. It leads the sector by a significant margin, with a brand value more than five times that of L&M, which holds the second spot.

    Altria Group, which owns Marlboro in the United States, and PMI, which owns the brand elsewhere, have both faced declining revenue from combustible products. Altria has struggled with lower shipment volumes and increased promotional investments, including a recent $0.17 per pack price increase on Marlboro and other brands in the U.S. Similarly, PMI has reported a drop in revenue from combustible tobacco. Nevertheless, Marlboro retains its top position due to its loyal customer base and strong promotional strategies.

    L&M (brand value $6.2 billion) has climbed to second in the ranking, despite recording a 2 percent decline in brand value. It has overtaken Pall Mall, which now sits in third following a 9 percent loss in brand value to $5.9 billion. L&M’s brand value has taken a hit as shipment volumes have declined. L&M is the sector’s strongest brand with a Brand Strength Index score of 77 out of 100.

    Richard Haigh

    “While Marlboro continues to lead as the most valuable tobacco brand for the 10th consecutive year, the industry is undergoing significant transformation,” said Richard Haigh, global managing director at Brand Finance.

    “The rise of smokeless alternatives like IQOS highlights shifting consumer preferences and changing market dynamics. Earlier this year, BAT’s announcement of a $31.5 billion impairment on the value of some of its U.S. cigarette brands marked the first significant write-down in a major market.

    “Acknowledging the reality that the market for traditional cigarettes is shrinking and taking action should be seen both as a bold and an important step in addressing an existential problem for the company. With eight out of the top 10 brands experiencing declines in value, tobacco giants must be brave in admitting market shifts and strategically planning their next moves to sustain global dominance and relevance.”

    Chesterfield (brand value $3.1 billion) has maintained its brand value year-on-year and advanced one position to seventh place. The brand has seen a rise in shipment volume, with an 8 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2022 and a 14 percent increase for the full year, which has contributed to its stable brand value this year.

    The latest rankings highlight the dominance of U.S. tobacco brands, which make up a remarkable 92 percent of the total brand value in the ranking, totaling $61 billion. Only two brands in the ranking are from outside the U.S., the U.K.’s Rothmans (brand value down 8 percent to $2.9 billion) and Indonesia’s Sampoerna (brand value down 12 percent to $2.7 billion).

  • Strategic Impairment

    Strategic Impairment

    Images: BAT

    BAT’s write-down of its U.S. cigarette brands is a positive step in its journey toward a resilient future.

    By Richard Haigh

    Earlier this month, BAT announced a $31.5 billion impairment on the value of some of its U.S. cigarette brands. The affected brands, including Newport, Camel, Pall Mall and Natural American Spirit, will see their value on BAT’s balance sheet adjusted to a finite lifetime of 30 years, resulting in a noncash impairment charge. This signifies the first instance where a major global tobacco company has written off some of the value of its traditional cigarettes business in a significant market such as the United States.

    BAT’s write-down highlights the challenges faced by traditional tobacco businesses in the wake of evolving industry dynamics. BAT attributes the move to economic challenges in the U.S., where inflation-weary consumers are shifting to cheaper brands, as well as the rise of illicit disposable vapes. Furthermore, intensifying regulatory environments and the heightened awareness of health risks have resulted in a decline in cigarette sales volumes in certain markets. These are predicted to continue to fall, with BAT adding that global tobacco industry sales volumes will be down around 3 percent in 2023.

    Responding to Change

    The decision to write down the value of some of its brands was a bold step for BAT because, despite the short-term pain, the reality is that the market for cigarettes is shrinking, and pretending otherwise would be irresponsible on the part of management.

    In the past, failure to embrace change has decided the fate of several top brands. Blockbuster, a giant in the video rental industry with thousands of stores worldwide, failed to recognize the shift toward online streaming and mail-order DVD services. In 2010, Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy, unable to compete with the likes of Netflix. Kodak, which resisted the shift to digital cameras, suffered the consequences, filing for bankruptcy in 2012. Nokia, once a dominant force in the mobile phone industry, struggled to adapt to the rise of smartphones and the popularity of app ecosystems. Nokia’s market share declined rapidly, and eventually, it sold its mobile phone business to Microsoft in 2014. These all serve as cautionary examples.

    BAT’s move is crucial in the context of the company consciously steering away from potential pitfalls, showcasing a commitment to survival and growth in new categories. The company is already investing heavily in alternative products, focusing on vaping and oral nicotine and wants 50 percent of its revenues to come from these by 2035.

    Appointed CEO in May 2023, Tadeu Marroco has played a crucial role in guiding the company through a transformative phase, emphasizing growth in emerging categories such as vapes and e-cigarettes.

    Correlation Between Leadership Tenure and Impairments

    Tadeu Marroco assumed the role of CEO in May 2023. Having previously served as BAT’s finance director, Marroco has played a crucial role in guiding the company through a transformative phase, emphasizing growth in emerging categories such as vapes and e-cigarettes.

    The correlation between tenure length and significant impairments is an interesting one to note. When assessing 2019’s largest impairments, a common thread emerges: new leadership, as depicted in the charts accompanying this text. In this context, BAT’s decision is not an isolated incident but rather a strategic response to industry challenges, reflecting a broader pattern observed in companies experiencing changes in leadership.

    When looking at 2019’s biggest goodwill impairments, except for Procter and Gamble and CenturyLink, all companies listed had either a new CEO, a new chief financial officer (CFO) or both. Most of these companies’ previous leaders decided not to take an impairment in 2018. CenturyLink did take an impairment in 2018, when it also had both a new CEO and CFO. Therefore, new leadership appears to have a significant impact on the likelihood a company will impair its goodwill. Among the entire sample, we found that 30 percent of all impairments occur within the first year of having a new CEO or CFO.

    For larger impairments, where the impairment represents at least half of the goodwill carrying amount, 41 percent of these occur within the first year of new leadership. At best, this analysis suggests that goodwill impairment can be influenced by varying personal opinions of management personnel and their perceptions of outlook and risk. At the worst, this analysis suggests that there may be an ulterior motive within the decision to impair goodwill. By taking an impairment at the beginning of your tenure as a CEO or CFO, it helps you to either set a precedent that suggests your predecessor was negligent/overoptimistic about their acquisitions or influence the share price to fall initially then rise throughout the rest of your tenure.

    Given these insights, the timing of the impairment—just nine months into Marroco’s tenure as CEO—aligns with broader trends observed in companies with leadership changes. Adding to the leadership transition, BAT has recently appointed a new CFO, scheduled to assume the role in April 2024.

    Looking Ahead

    BAT’s impairment announcement should be viewed as a positive and necessary step in the company’s journey toward a resilient future. Rather than focusing solely on the financial implications, stakeholders should recognize the strategic foresight behind this decision.

    However, the industry is consistently grappling with challenges. Plain packaging laws have notably evolved, gaining increased comprehensiveness in some countries. These regulations now extend their coverage from traditional tobacco products to encompass heated tobacco, tobacco accessories and other nicotine-containing items. Adding to the recent developments, this month, the World Health Organization has shifted its focus to vaping, urging governments to apply tobacco-style control measures to address this emerging concern.

    Therefore, BAT and other tobacco companies must proactively adapt their strategies, leveraging innovation and regulatory compliance, to navigate the evolving landscape and ensure long-term success in an industry marked by ever increasing health-related safeguards and regulatory barriers.

    Richard Haigh is group managing director at Brand Finance.
  • Nicotine a Top ‘Intangible’ Sector

    Nicotine a Top ‘Intangible’ Sector

    Photo: Smoore

    The tobacco and vaping business is the world’s most “intangible” sector in relative terms, according to the brand valuation consultancy Brand Finance.

    Intangible assets are identifiable, non-monetary assets without physical substance. They can be grouped into three broad categories—rights (including leases, agreements, contracts), relationships (including a trained workforce) and intellectual property (including brands, patents and copyrights).

    According to Brand Finance, intangible assets account for 91 percent of the tobacco and vaping sector’s total enterprise value—a condition that the consultancy attributes to tobacco and e-cigarette companies’ heavy investments in proprietary vaping-related technology and patented intellectual property. The China National Tobacco Corp., BAT and Philip Morris, for example, have each accumulated significant disclosed intangibles and goodwill due to large acquisitions.

    “While tobacco products are increasingly regulated in developed markets, e-cigarettes are at nascent stage and currently proving to generate high intangible value thanks in part due to lack of regulation of marketing these products in some jurisdictions,” Brand Finance writes in its report.

    Remarkably, the tobacco and vaping business was the second-largest contributor (after semiconductors) to the performance in the rankings of Japan, which saw the value of its intangible assets jump by $587 billion this year.

    “Our research aims to demonstrate the continued growing importance of intangible assets like strong brands and innovative technology in driving productivity and growth potential,” said Annie Brown, general manager at Brand Finance UK, in a statement. “Companies that strategically deploy their intangible assets have the ability to significantly outperform their competitors.”