A policy brief by the Center for Market Education (CME) warns that Southeast Asian governments may lose more than $11 billion to illicit tobacco trade by 2028, averaging $3.7 billion annually.
Key national losses include:
- Malaysia: $770 million/year, nearly matching projected petrol subsidy savings.
- Philippines: $440 million/year, exceeding its $370 million disaster preparedness fund.
- Thailand: $560 million/year, with illicit products making up 28% of the market.
- Indonesia: $5 billion lost across three years, with illicit trade above 10% of the market.
CME notes these figures are conservative due to underreporting and uneven enforcement. CEO Dr. Carmelo Ferlito called for stronger cross-border collaboration, policy alignment, and transparency to reclaim lost revenue. Hayley van Loon, CEO of Crime Stoppers International, highlighted the link between illicit tobacco and organized crime, including narcotics, human trafficking, and counterfeit goods.










