Philip Morris International reported strong 2025 fourth-quarter and full-year results, driven largely by the continued expansion of its smoke-free product portfolio. The company recorded more than $40 billion in annual net revenues, including nearly $17 billion from smoke-free products, which accounted for 41.5% of total net revenues. Smoke-free shipment volumes rose 12.8% for the year, with PMI’s products now available in 106 markets and used by an estimated 43 million adult consumers. IQOS maintained a dominant position in heat-not-burn, holding about 76% global category share, while nicotine pouch brand Zyn continued rapid growth, particularly in the U.S., where shipment volumes reached 794 million cans for the year.
PMI’s combustible business remained stable despite expected volume declines, supported by pricing strength and productivity improvements. Marlboro reached a record 11% global category share, while total company shipment volumes remained flat as growth in smoke-free products offset cigarette declines. The company also reported strong performance across multiple regions, including double-digit heated tobacco growth in Europe and sustained category leadership in Japan, where heat-not-burn products now exceed 50% of total nicotine offtake in several major markets.
Looking ahead, PMI expects continued momentum, forecasting 2026 adjusted diluted EPS growth of 7.5% to 9.5% excluding currency effects. The company also introduced 2026–2028 targets calling for 6% to 8% organic net revenue growth and 9% to 11% adjusted EPS growth, driven primarily by high single-digit to low-teens expansion in smoke-free product volumes.
In response to the financials, Morgan Stanley said it expects a modest negative market reaction to PMI’s fourth-quarter results and forward guidance, which were largely in line with expectations following the stock’s strong rally since December.
“On balance, 4Q results were broadly in line, and guidance looks reasonable, but is unlikely to settle the debate around the stock,” Morgan Stanley wrote. “Bears continue to point to a 2H-weighted year with headwinds from IQOS competition and excise tax increases in Japan, the flavor ban in Poland, and continued competition in U.S. nicotine pouches. Bulls point to PM delivering the best mid-term growth in large-cap CPG despite these known headwinds. We are [rating the stock] Overweight, and continue to expect growth to reaccelerate in 2H as these headwinds dissipate, and for US Zyn trends to improve with the likely FDA authorization of Zyn Ultra.”
