The Challenge of Logistics
Last year’s season saw disruptions in key markets due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Travel restrictions not only caused shortages of agricultural inputs and seasonal farm workers, but also prevented many buyers and sellers from visiting the sales floors. In TR’s survey, leaf merchants unanimously named logistics as an issue of concern.
“By far, the most pressing issue for me is logistics,” says Smith. “With the pandemic raging, it is hard to get a shipment from point A to point B in a timely manner. What used to take 45 days now takes 90 if you are lucky. This seems to be true for all sources.”
“We face higher shipping and transportation costs and delivery delays due to the overbooking of certain routes,” echoes Busch.
For House, the biggest concern for his company is the supply chain. “This has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, and it will take some time before shipping lines have a good handle on where goods are coming from and going to in order to smooth out the disturbances in the system,” he says. “Trucking has also been affected in the U.S., and it will also take time before there are the right amount of trucks for the right amount of drivers for the right amount of customers.”
“The impact of Covid-19 is still adversely affecting the leaf supply sector; we have seen some delayed decisions within the trade last year as customers postponed placing orders, tried to better utilize or manage existing inventories and gauge potential cigarette sales given restrictions and lockdown requirements,” says Mackay. “To further compound matters, the dramatic increase in freight rates from Asia and the general lack of availability of containers and shipping routes caused dramatic cost increases and caused longer than usual transit times. As we continue to deal with the potentially longer-term impact of this pandemic, we sense the industry will inherently be more cautious in tobacco production and financing. The cost of business could be more restrictive and might limit worldwide production plans and see diminished inventory levels that could lead to an undersupply in some segments.”
Nevertheless, leaf merchants remain optimistic. “The tobacco industry has proven to be very resilient in the face of Covid-19, and the only significant decline in combustible products is from the inactivity in global duty-free shops at airports and the like,” explains Schneeberger.
“The Covid-19 virus and the challenges that came along with it have made it our priority to facilitate a transformation for ourselves and our industry—a transformation that calls for a better understanding and improvement,” Bahcevan points out. Kohl expects a stabilization of the pandemic that should generate a recovery in investments. “It is a transition moment as we believe we are seeing this imbalance in basic market rules, such as the balance between supply and demand.”
For Dora Gleoudis, managing director of Nicos Gleoudis Kavex, which specializes in Greek oriental tobacco varieties, business life has returned almost to normal. “We are travelling a lot,” she says. “It’s good to see some recovery.”