Tax evasion, weak enforcement of the track-and-trace system, and regulatory loopholes are crippling both public revenue and health safeguards, costing Pakistan over Rs300 billion ($1.1 billion) annually to the illicit cigarette trade, experts said. Speaking on “The Express Tribune Podcast,” in collaboration with #BehtareenPakistan, CEO of the Institute for Public Opinion Research (IPOR), Tariq Junaid, said, “This is not just a health issue—it’s an economic crisis. When more than 40% of the cigarette market goes untaxed, the state loses the ability to fund vital services. Smugglers are filling the gap while legitimate businesses suffer.”
Panelists on the podcast said illegal cigarette manufacturers are exploiting the system by avoiding the Federal Excise Duty and producing below the legal price threshold. These untaxed products are then sold cheaply, undercutting lawful manufacturers and contributing to a shadow economy that thrives on regulatory inaction. The podcast also explored the broader impacts of the illicit trade. Experts emphasized that this is not simply a revenue issue, it also has dire implications for public health. Consumers of illegal cigarettes are often exposed to unregulated, potentially more harmful products.
In response to these challenges, the panel advocated for the urgent implementation of a fully functional track-and-trace system to digitally monitor cigarette production and distribution. They also called for tougher penalties for violators and more transparent oversight by tax authorities.
“There needs to be a serious political will to act,” Junaid said. “The solution is not just about enforcement—it’s about protecting Pakistan’s economy from systemic exploitation.”
