Research published by the University of Bath Tobacco Control Research Group and the University of Sheffield’s Addictions Research Group provides the first real-world modelling of a proposed “polluter pays” tobacco levy scheme for the United Kingdom. The study found that the proposed policy could raise between £1 billion and £4.9 billion over five years, depending on the level of price cap and how quickly it is introduced. It could also prevent up to 10,000 hospital admissions and save almost 44,000 years of life over a 20-year period.
The levy could be delivered by setting a maximum wholesale price that the industry could charge for tobacco products, thereby preventing the industry from using price as a promotional tool. To stop shop prices from falling, the government would raise taxes to offset falls in wholesale prices. The researchers argue this structure would extract revenue from tobacco company profits rather than from consumers or small retailers.
The University of Sheffield team led a dynamic micro-simulation modelling exercise for England, tracking 250,000 individuals aged 18 to 89 across six scenarios, varying the stringency and speed of tobacco price cap implementation. An immediate hard cap in England could generate £4.9 billion by 2029 and, by 2044, lead to 1,636 fewer deaths, 43,987 fewer years of life lost, and 10,073 fewer hospital admissions.
Across all six scenarios, researchers observed a consistent pattern: a narrower price range in the market, reduced smoking prevalence, higher tax revenues, and fewer deaths and hospital admissions. While industry revenues declined, consumer expenditure remained largely unchanged. Advocates including Action on Smoking and Health (UK) and Cancer Research UK have championed the idea, and the study’s authors called on UK ministers to consult on introducing the levy as a long-term tool to make the country smokefree within the next 20 years.
