Cigarette and cigar volumes fell sharply in two key European markets during the four weeks ending in mid-May, according to Nielsen data cited by Bank of America, declining 14.3 percent in the UK and 5.9 percent in Italy. The figures point to continued contraction in combustible volumes overall, while individual manufacturers diverged considerably between the two markets, with Italy emerging as a relative bright spot for some players.
Imperial Brands saw UK cigarette and cigar volumes fall 13.8 percent over the period, a market that represents roughly 6 percent of its tobacco and next-generation product revenue. In Italy, however, Imperial posted volume growth of 22.8 percent and gained about 150 basis points of market share. Japan Tobacco followed a similar pattern, with UK volumes down 13.9 percent but a 15-basis-point share gain in Italy and a 5.5 percent volume decline there.
British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International fared less well on share. BAT’s UK volumes fell 20.3 percent, costing it roughly 50 basis points of share, while its Italian volumes dropped 7.3 percent for a loss of about 30 basis points; Bank of America estimates Italy and the UK together account for around 3 percent of BAT’s 2025 adjusted EBIT including new categories. PMI’s UK volumes declined 16.1 percent and its Italian cigarette volumes fell 8.1 percent, with share losses of roughly 20 and 100 basis points respectively, though the report notes that Nielsen’s EU data does not capture PMI’s heated tobacco products.
