PRESS RELEASE
New data indicate the UK will miss the target of becoming a smoke-free society by 2030
New analysis by Haypp has revealed that efforts to achieve a smoke-free status for the UK by 2030 are falling short. The data indicate that if the current rate of decline in smoking rates continues, the UK will not achieve smoke-free status until at least 2033.
In collaboration with Swedish economist David Sundén, Haypp has analysed the decline in smoking rates across the EU and the UK and calculated when each country is on track to become smoke-free. Looking at the results for the nations of the UK, England is slightly ahead of its neighbours and is expected to reach smoke-free status in 2032. Wales and Scotland are not far behind, with Wales expected to achieve smoke-free status in 2033 and Scotland in 2034. However, Northern Ireland is significantly further behind and is not predicted to become smoke-free until 2037.
The analysis also looks at Sweden’s progress towards smoke-free status, and identifies October 25th 2025, as the day Sweden will become the first European country and one of the first in the world to be smoke-free. That is based on the World Health Organisation definition of smoke-free, which is a country where less than 5% of the population are daily smokers.
David Sundén explains: “While it is of course very difficult to pinpoint an exact date, based on my calculations and publicly available statistics, October 25 is the date that Sweden becomes smoke-free according to the WHO definition.”
In the UK, despite recent significant reductions in the daily smoking rate due to large numbers of smokers switching to alternatives such as vapes, the rate is still as high as 11.9%. The rate of reduction in the UK may be slowing as some regions have seen a growth in smoking rates over the past year, and the number of smokers switching to vapes is plateauing. The average daily smoking rate across Europe also remains high at 16.6%.
Among younger populations, the difference is even more significant. Among Swedish young people, the rate of daily smokers is very low, at only 2.3 per cent. In the UK, among 18 – 24 year-olds, the rate is 9.8%. Across Europe, the youth smoking rate is still as high as 12.1 per cent.
David continued: “We based our analysis on the official statistics of daily smokers in all EU countries and the UK and compared the trends over time. But it’s no coincidence that Sweden is set to go smoke-free first. Sweden has had relatively high cigarette taxes for a long time. That makes smoking more expensive and less attractive for people. But just as important is the availability of alternatives: snus and, later, nicotine pouches. People haven’t been forced to choose between trying to quit nicotine altogether or continuing to smoke; they’ve had access to alternative products. It’s that combination that makes Sweden top of the smoke-free leaderboard.”
In 2025 alone, smoking is expected to cause at least 38,232 deaths among males aged 35+ in the UK. However, if the UK were to adopt Sweden’s progressive smoke-free policies and more males were to switch from smoking to nicotine pouches, this number could be reduced dramatically, preventing up to 20,788 deaths each year.
Markus Lindblad, Director of External Affairs at Haypp, said: “This data is evidence that the Swedish approach to harm reduction is effective. For a long time, we have been campaigning and raising awareness of the benefits of smokers switching to alternative products. We can see what has worked in Sweden, and as the Tobacco and Vapes Bill moves through Parliament, the UK has an opportunity to recognise the role alternative nicotine products can play in stamping out smoking.”