Military actions involving Iran will likely disrupt regional logistics and industrial activity across the Persian Gulf, raising concerns about potential impacts on global cigarette and cigar supply chains, according to sources cited by Russian outlet Izvestia and analysts at the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. The report notes that seven Gulf countries — Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait — account for over 20% of global tobacco exports, with countries such as Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Singapore, Thailand, and several African markets relying on imports from the region.
Analyst Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global said any shortages could raise prices and delay deliveries, but may be mitigated by shifting production and supply routes to other regions. He added that broader supply chain effects could extend to packaging, chemicals, and industrial inputs, while creating potential export opportunities for Russia in sectors such as fertilizers and petrochemicals.
