A new analysis by Haypp, in collaboration with Swedish economist David Sundén, shows that the UK is unlikely to achieve its goal of being smoke-free by 2030 if current trends continue. Based on smoking rate declines across the UK and EU, England is projected to reach smoke-free status in 2032, Wales in 2033, Scotland in 2034, and Northern Ireland not until 2037. The study defines smoke-free as having less than 5% of the population smoking daily, in line with the World Health Organization criteria.
The report highlights Sweden as a global leader, set to become smoke-free on October 25, 2025, driven by high cigarette taxes and widespread access to alternatives like snus and nicotine pouches. In comparison, the UK’s overall daily smoking rate remains at 11.9%, with rates among young adults (18–24) at 9.8%. Sweden’s young-adult smoking rate is 2.3%.
Sundén notes that while alternatives such as vapes have helped reduce smoking, the rate of decline is slowing and some regions have even seen slight increases over the past year.
The analysis also points to the potential public health impact if the UK adopted Sweden’s harm reduction strategies. Markus Lindblad, Haypp’s Director of External Affairs, emphasized that the UK has an opportunity to follow Sweden’s approach, using alternative nicotine products to accelerate the transition away from combustible tobacco as Parliament considers the Tobacco and Vapes Bill.