This week, after previous renditions seemed dead in the water, Washington legislators slipped twin bills into the House and Senate that would impose a statewide flavor ban on tobacco products and add a carbon tax on cigarettes. In an opinion piece for the Tax Foundation, Adam Hoffer and Jacob Macumber-Rosin, both experts in tax policy, compared these schemes to others around the country.
“A carbon tax on cigarettes is novel, while the idea for a flavor ban is not,” they wrote. “Massachusetts and California have already banned flavored tobacco products in their states, and the experiences have been so negative that the Biden administration backed off its own plan for a nationwide flavor ban.
“Both Massachusetts and California experienced massive tax revenue declines, incredible growth in illicit market activity, and little to no change in smoking rates. Following its flavor ban in 2020, Massachusetts saw cigarette excise tax revenue decline by more than $100 million and revenue has persisted at the lower level. Unfortunately, fewer legal sales don’t necessarily translate to less consumption. Our previous work identified that about 90% of the reduction in sales in Massachusetts was offset by increases in legal sales in neighboring states. Illicit product seizures and smuggling estimates have skyrocketed.”
The writers said California fared no better, losing more than $230 million in state cigarette sales and excise taxes since it banned flavors in December 2022. Unlike Massachusetts, however, smokers didn’t turn to neighboring states, they began utilizing illicit and international markets to replace their legal purchases.
“One study collected details on 15,000 discarded cigarette packs from public trash containers across 10 major California cities in May and June of 2023,” they wrote. “These data showed that 21.1% of the discarded packs were menthol-style cigarettes, a mere 3% drop in menthol market share estimates from before the flavor ban.
“The same data found foreign and illicit market share spiked. Non-US packs comprised 27.6% of the sample, compared to an estimated foreign market share of only 17% previously.”
The state’s fiscal analysis predicts a flavor ban would decrease revenues by more than $100 million per year, and the proposed carbon tax would only recoup 1% of that.
“The justification for applying a carbon tax on top of existing cigarette taxes is weak,” they wrote. “Secondhand smoke certainly harms others nearby who are forced to inhale it, and cigarette smoking releases carbon dioxide, but classifying cigarettes as a broad state-wide pollutant is a stretch.
“These haphazard policies appear to be part of a ‘try-anything’ effort to close the state’s projected $15 billion budget shortfall. Washington State taxpayers deserve sound fiscal policy reforms that will provide stable, long-run revenue for the government. Narrow-based and patchwork fixes only kick the can down the road to the next set of elected officials.”