New South Wales Premier Chris Minns called for a rethink of Australia’s tobacco excise policy, arguing that repeated tax increases are fueling the growth of the illicit tobacco market. Minns said the excise was “actually creating a black market for cigarettes,” making illegal products cheaper and more accessible than intended under tobacco control measures.
His comments align with those of politician Pauline Hanson, who this week urged the federal government to cut tobacco excise rates to undermine criminal groups profiting from illicit cigarette sales. Hanson argued that continued excise increases are creating incentives for organized crime and called for stronger customs enforcement.
The debate follows new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimating that nicotine consumption rose nearly 40% between 2017 and 2025, driven largely by growth in illicit cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and other nicotine products. The report estimated illicit products accounted for 80% of nicotine consumption in 2025, up from 12% in 2017.
The issue has become increasingly prominent as Australia faces an ongoing illicit tobacco-related crime wave. More than 125 firebombings in Victoria have been linked to disputes over the illegal tobacco trade. Meanwhile, federal budget projections show tobacco excise revenue falling from A$7.8 billion ($5.5 billion) in 2024-25 to A$4.1 billion ($2.9 billion) in 2025-26, despite excise rates continuing to rise. Australia’s tobacco excise increased again in March to A$1.53 ($1.09) per cigarette stick, with a further increase scheduled for September.
