The Philippines is losing an estimated P25 billion ($425 million) annually in cigarette excise taxes due to the illicit tobacco trade, according to a policy brief by the Center for Market Education (CME). The report, which compares seven ASEAN economies, found that smuggled cigarettes account for about 16% of the domestic market, with some estimates reaching as high as 21%. CME CEO Carmelito Ferlito said the foregone revenue represents a significant missed opportunity to fund public services.
The brief noted that the lost money is equivalent to 12.5% of the national health budget and 3.6% of the education budget, funds that could otherwise support hospitals, schools, and climate programs. While tobacco excise collections surged after major reforms in 2012, revenues peaked in 2021 and have declined since, raising concerns that rates may have exceeded the revenue-maximizing point on the Laffer Curve. CME urged policymakers to align tax policy with stronger enforcement, stressing that taxation is effective only when compliance is enforceable and credible.