China Tobacco International (HK) (CTIHK) announced that first-half 2026 revenue is expected to decline 25%–30% year over year, with profit attributable to shareholders falling 10%–15%, primarily due to lower tobacco leaf imports from the U.S. and other regions and delays in cigarette shipments to China’s domestic duty-free market. The warning underscores CTIHK’s continued dependence on traditional tobacco supply chains, with tobacco leaf imports, exports, and Brazilian operations accounting for about 88% of 2025 revenue, while new tobacco products contributed less than 1%.
The company’s exposure to Chinese import planning, domestic demand, duty-free channel dynamics and global trade conditions remains a key driver of performance. Investors will see if leaf imports and duty-free shipments recover in the second half of 2026 and whether CTIHK can diversify beyond its traditional tobacco businesses.