The Action for Economic Reforms (AER) and Philippine government officials oppose bills seeking to cut tobacco excise taxes, warning the move could increase smoking rates and reduce government revenues without addressing illicit trade. A joint study by AER and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health argues that high tobacco taxes do not drive illicit trade, but it is instead a product of weak enforcement and local governance.
AER projects up to two million new smokers by 2035 and P167 billion ($2.8 billion) in lost revenue if taxes are lowered. Officials, including Senator Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel and BIR Commissioner Romeo Lumagui, stressed that stronger enforcement, a nationwide licensing system, and an upgraded track-and-trace program are key to curbing illicit tobacco sales and protecting public health.