According to the 2024 KPMG study, produced annually and commissioned by Philip Morris Products SA, smokers in the European Union consumed 38.9 billion illicit cigarettes in 2024, a 10.8% increase versus 2023, the highest level since 2015. That number accounts for 9.2% of total cigarette consumption, with governments losing as much as €14.9 billion in tax revenues at a time when many countries face intense economic pressures and rising black markets.
PMI called for effective policymaking to counter the growing threat of illicit trade, and said it believes that steep and abrupt tax increases are exacerbating the issue and benefitting criminals who supply unregulated, untaxed, and inferior products. To combat this growing threat, PMI urges the adoption of evidence-based regulation with balanced and predictable taxation through tax calendars, continued public-private collaboration, and enhanced support of regional and national law enforcement agencies.
“The illicit tobacco trade threatens the European economy, public health, security, and social stability; today, higher-taxed and higher-priced markets such as France and the Netherlands are especially impacted by illegally imported and counterfeit goods,” said Christos Harpantidis, PMI’s Senior Vice President, External Affairs. “Its massive socioeconomic impact negatively affects tax collection, job creation, and legitimate businesses, the engine of our European economies. The availability of cheap, unregulated cigarettes in the underground economy also impairs efforts to reduce smoking rates and achieve a smoke-free future.”
France has the largest illicit market in Europe, reaching 18.7 billion illicit cigarettes consumed last year, 37.6% of total consumption. The Netherlands saw the largest increase in illicit cigarettes, which doubled to 17.9% of total consumption.
A detailed overview of the results, country profiles, and methodology of the KPMG study is available here.