Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa is exploring the introduction of an additional excise tier for cigarettes, a move intended to provide a legal pathway for certain illegal tobacco products. While economists see potential fiscal benefits, including expanded tax revenue and improved enforcement legitimacy, experts caution that outcomes are not guaranteed. Imanina Eka Dalilah, a senior researcher at Universitas Brawijaya, said that if the new tier simply shifts consumption from higher-taxed legal products to lower-tax brackets, it could cannibalize revenue rather than expand the tax base. She added that law-abiding manufacturers could face new competition from previously illegal producers, creating a moral hazard if past compliance is effectively penalized by regulatory changes. According to Dalilah, the success of the policy hinges on careful design: it should be transitional, tightly regulated, and include safeguards to prevent consumption shifts and revenue erosion, ensuring that compliance is rewarded and illegal actors remain deterred. Without such measures, the excise tier risks becoming a short-term fix that could destabilize the legal tobacco market.
