Malawi’s 2026 tobacco marketing season has opened with a significant supply-demand imbalance, as production is projected at 197 million kg against buyer demand of just 170 million kg, leaving a surplus of about 27 million kg. Early signs at auction floors point to slow uptake, with less than half of delivered bales initially put up for sale, raising concerns over stock build-up.
Industry participants say the gap reflects weaker global demand and excess supply, with buyers holding greater leverage and some still carrying unsold inventory from the previous season. Major buyers, including JTI Leaf, Alliance One, and Limbe Leaf, are collectively targeting volumes well below expected output, highlighting a shortage of purchasing capacity.
The imbalance is expected to put downward pressure on prices and farmer incomes, following a similar pattern last year when oversupply led to price declines. With tobacco remaining a key source of export earnings, officials have urged fair pricing, though market conditions remain driven by the excess supply and limited buyer demand.