A new article by Mukundi Budeli, recently published by TheCommonSense, warns that South Africa’s proposed Tobacco Products and Electronic Delivery Systems Control Bill could unintentionally strengthen the illicit tobacco market by introducing plain packaging and other restrictive measures without adequate enforcement capacity. While acknowledging the public health objectives behind the legislation, Budeli argues that South Africa risks repeating mistakes seen during the 2020 tobacco sales ban, which he says failed to curb smoking and instead boosted illegal trade.
“On its own terms, the public health rationale is coherent,” Budeli wrote. “The disagreement is not about whether that goal is worthy. It is about whether this instrument, in this country, at this moment, is likely to achieve it.”
The article contends that plain packaging may make counterfeit products easier to produce in a market already plagued by weak enforcement, limited cigarette seizures, and the absence of a functioning track-and-trace system. Budeli urged policymakers to consider South Africa’s enforcement realities and the potential economic and fiscal consequences before adopting regulations modelled on measures implemented in countries with stronger regulatory infrastructure. “Policies designed in Geneva or Canberra do not automatically produce good outcomes in Johannesburg or Limpopo,” he said. “Good intentions, poorly calibrated to local conditions, have a habit of serving neither the public health goals they were designed to advance nor the broader fiscal and social interests of the country.”