Tag: shortfall

  • Extent of Australia’s Illicit Tobacco Crisis Coming to Light

    Extent of Australia’s Illicit Tobacco Crisis Coming to Light

    Australia’s illicit tobacco trade is believed to be nearing double the size of the legal market, with excessive excise rates driving a surge in smuggled cigarettes, illicit tobacco and e-cigarette commissioner Amber Shuhyta warned. She told the Senate that estimates of black-market products may be approaching 65% of all tobacco sold, fueled by retail cigarette prices approaching A$50 ($33) a pack. Smuggled packs sell for about A$15 ($9.90), pulling revenue away from legitimate retailers and the federal budget.

    Legal tobacco sales are collapsing, she said. Supplier Metcash reported a 35% drop in sales over the six months to October, while Australia’s tobacco tax take has fallen from 0.8% of national income to below 0.3% in five years—creating a A$69 billion ($45.5 billion) budget shortfall.

    Meanwhile, organized crime groups competing for control of the illegal tobacco and vaping market have been linked to murders, extortion, and hundreds of fire bombings nationwide. Border Force Commissioner Gavan Reynolds said officers seized more than 2.5 billion cigarettes last financial year and intercepted 439 tons of loose tobacco, worth an estimated A$4.4 billion ($2.9 billion) in evaded duty. He said enforcement now targets the supply chain “before the border, at the border, and post-border.”

  • Despite Increase, Pakistan Faces Cigarette Tax Revenue Shortfall

    Despite Increase, Pakistan Faces Cigarette Tax Revenue Shortfall

    Contrary to recent optimistic projections, Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax collection from documented cigarette industry is expected to fall significantly from last year, highlighting growing challenges in the sector amid rising smuggling and regulatory inefficiencies.

    For the 2024-25 fiscal year, the government budgeted revenue collected from the cigarette industry to reach PKR 285 billion ($998 million). However, industry insiders and financial analysts say that figure is not grounded in factual analysis, and PKR 250 billion ($875 million) is more realistic.

    According to Business Recorder, a major factor behind the revenue shortfall is the exorbitant imposition of Adjustable Federal Excise Duty (FED) on acetate tow, a key raw material used in cigarette manufacturing. The industry recommended an adjustable FED rate of PKR 4,000 per kg, which was intended to increase the cost of doing business for the illicit players and was supposed to be adjusted against the final tax liability improving documentation and reconciliation. However, the government imposed a FED rate of PKR 44,000 per kg, a sharp rise that has inadvertently made smuggling far more lucrative and has led to a dramatic increase in illicit activity.