Philippine tobacco growers are expressing concern over a potential supply glut after strong leaf prices last year encouraged farmers to expand planting, raising fears of a market downturn. Philippine Tobacco Growers’ Association President Saturnino Distor said non-government organizations and local officials have been urging farmers to increase tobacco cultivation, but cautioned that favorable pricing conditions are unlikely to be repeated amid rising global production. He noted that major producer Malawi has significantly increased output in response to last year’s high prices, potentially flooding international markets and putting downward pressure on leaf prices.
The National Tobacco Administration (NTA) warned that oversupply conditions could persist for two to three years and is preparing information campaigns to discourage excessive production and help protect farmers from a possible price collapse. NTA Deputy Administrator for Operations Nestor Casela said buyers have signaled reluctance to purchase additional leaf while surplus inventories remain in the market. The regulator indicated that oversupply concerns are concentrated in Virginia tobacco, while demand for Burley and native tobacco remains relatively stable. For 2026, the NTA forecasts national tobacco production of about 51 million kg, including approximately 20 million kg of Virginia tobacco, and has set buying prices of up to P98 ($1.57) per kg for higher-grade leaf and P62 ($0.99) per kg for lower-grade and rejected tobacco.
