Pakistan’s tobacco industry is facing a mounting crisis as illicit cigarettes now account for an estimated 56–58% of the market, costing the government more than Rs400 billion ($1.4 billion) annually in lost tax revenue. Legal tobacco companies, which contribute nearly Rs270 billion ($945 million) in taxes each year, have seen their market share plummet amid growing competition from counterfeit and untaxed products.
Industry experts point to weak enforcement of Pakistan’s Track & Trace system, a digital tax-stamp program meant to monitor production and sales. While Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has directed authorities to accelerate its rollout, implementation remains inconsistent, allowing fake and unregistered brands to flourish and evade minimum pricing rules and taxation.
Analysts warn that without decisive action, illicit trade will continue to destabilize the economy and undermine legitimate businesses. They recommend tighter border controls, stronger retailer-level enforcement, and harsher penalties for smuggling and counterfeiting. “Educating retailers on how tax stamps work and how to verify legal products is also crucial in preventing the spread of untaxed goods,” said macroeconomic analyst Osama Siddiqui.
