At the Turning Point
Smuggled cigarettes on the Latvian border
Belarus’ role in the illicit cigarette trade is under scrutiny.
Contributed
For years, Belarus has been under scrutiny for its alleged distribution of illegal counterfeit cigarettes, a practice that is now under severe pressure in the current political landscape. This pressure casts a shadow of uncertainty over the industry’s future.
A cornerstone of the Belarus national budget, the tobacco industry contributed BYR2.5 billion ($76.45 million) in 2023. However, the industry is now facing alarming trends, as highlighted by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko during a governmental meeting in August 2024.
The reasons for the existing challenges might be different, Lukashenko vaguely said, emphasizing that despite that, “It is necessary to develop measures to preserve production and export volumes to the maximum extent possible.”
The Belarusian tobacco industry has been shrouded in secrecy for over a decade. In 2015, the last time official information was revealed, Belarusian authorities set the quota of cigarette consumption on the domestic market at 30 billion pieces. At that time, local analysts indicated that the figure had nothing to do with reality.
Research by KPMG showed that the actual consumption of cigarettes in Belarus is close to 18 billion pieces. Around 13 billion cigarettes are exported, of which 8.6 billion end up in Russia and 4.3 billion in the EU.
Woes about the flow of cheap cigarettes, often smuggled, from Belarus have become common in recent years not only in the European Union but also in Russia.
In 2020, the Russian association Anticounterfeit calculated that Belarus’ domestic consumption was around 17 billion cigarettes and that production nearly three times exceeded the country’s demand. In a letter to the Russian Ministry of Justice, Anticounterfeit claimed that cheap cigarette production was put on an industrial scale in Belarus. The nameplate capacity of the Belarusian tobacco factories was estimated at 67 billion pieces, meaning export potential was tremendous.
In 2023, Belarus accounted for 84.5 percent of illegal cigarettes sold on the Russian market, estimated the Russian National Scientific Competence Center for Combating Illegal Circulation of Industrial Products. In total, illegal—counterfeit and smuggled—cigarettes represented 15.6 percent of sales on the Russian market. This illicit trade cost the Russian budget around RUB130 billion ($1.35 billion) of lost income in 2023, the analysts calculated.
Shut Borders
During the past few years, the flow of illegal cigarettes from Belarus to the European Union has subsided, as in the context of political tensions, the Baltic countries and Poland tightened border controls.
As estimated by KPMG, the volume of smuggled cigarettes from Belarus to the EU dropped by 500 million in 2023 and by almost 2 billion pieces over the past three years. The analysts also cite the tighter control and closure of a number of checkpoints on the border for the decline. The place of Belarusian cigarettes is being taken by suppliers from other countries, primarily Turkiye and Algeria.
Counterfeit supplies from Belarus to European countries decreased from 2.1 billion to 1.5 billion cigarettes over the year.
However, Belarus remains the absolute leader in the supply of illegal “white” cigarettes, which mean those smuggled and sold under their own brands to European countries.
In this category, Belarus holds a staggering 43 percent share in total deliveries to Europe. A year earlier, this figure was around 52 percent, KPMG calculated.
The most popular western destination for tobacco smuggling from Belarus is Poland. Last year, 0.74 billion illegal Belarusian cigarettes entered the country, which is almost 17 percent less than in 2022 and almost half as much as in 2020. The supply of illicit cigarettes from Belarus to Lithuania fell by 15.2 percent to 0.39 billion pieces and from Belarus to Latvia fell by 27.35 percent to 0.16 billion pieces.
Unraveling Tobacco War?
However, the main blow comes from the Russian market, where authorities also tightened the screws on illegal sales. Observers believe that problems in Russia were the key reason for Lukashenko’s concerns during the recent government meeting.
“The meeting is definitely not happening out of nowhere. But we need to call things by their proper names. We are not talking about problems with exports but with smuggling. Legal exports have been virtually nonexistent for a long time,” Nick & Mike, a local analytical Telegram channel reported.
“Strengthening controls on the western border, where Belarusian state counterfeit goods are seized in industrial quantities, including from tanks with resin, is nothing compared to what the eastern neighbor is doing. Russia has tacitly declared a ‘tobacco war’ and has been striking at illegal businesses,” the analyst claimed, referring to the intensified efforts by Russian authorities to curb illegal tobacco traffic from Belarus.
For years, Russian authorities have been turning a blind eye to illegal cigarette imports from Belarus, but this era seems to be coming to its end, a source in the tobacco industry who wished to remain anonymous told Tobacco Reporter.
“I would not call it a war, though. This is primarily about bringing the domestic market in order. Everybody knew that a situation where Russia loses over $1 billion in tax revenues every year to cigarette smuggling from Belarus would not last forever. The country could afford it during the rich times, but now every penny counts,” the source added.
In April 2024, Russia listed tobacco products among the goods of strategic importance. Andrey Mayorov, deputy head of the main directorate for customs control at the Russian Federal Customs Service, revealed that this move helped the authorities tighten their control of illegal tobacco traffic. One of the first consequences of the step, he added, was a hike in the number of criminal cases opened against tobacco smugglers.
More legal changes are on the way to turn down illegal cigarette imports to Russia from Belarus.
An agreement on indirect taxes between Russia and Belarus scheduled to gradually come into force through 2027 is expected to fully protect the Russian market from gray imports of cigarettes from Belarus, assumed Alexei Sazanov, deputy finance minister of Russia.
“The problem of gray imports stems from a significant difference between tax rates in the countries: Russian excise rates on tobacco products are significantly higher than in Belarus. This means that Belarusian tobacco manufacturers, producing cigarettes in their country, simply supply part of the goods to the Russian market, de facto paying taxes at Belarusian rates,” Sazanov explained.
The reform is stretched in time not to provoke “social and economic tensions in Belarus,” the deputy minister added.
Change of Players
The Belarusian tobacco industry is also going through a profound transformation, with Western companies gradually reducing their presence in the country.
In September 2024, Japan Tobacco International and its British subsidiary Gallaher Group terminated licensing agreements with the Tabak-Invest factory, suspending production of the brands Winston, Camel, Sobranie and Monte-Carlo.
JTI’s Minsk office confirmed that the agreement originally concluded in 2008 is no longer in force, declining to provide additional details.
In December 2023, Tabak-Invest and several of its co-owners were subjected to U.S. sanctions. The restrictions prohibited U.S. citizens and businesses from any deals with sanctioned parties.
In the meantime, JTI continues doing business in Russia. In March 2022, the company announced a suspension of investments in its four factories and marketing activity in the country. However, in November 2023, the company announced it would continue operations, complying with international and Russian regulations.
JTI may switch to importing its brands from Russia to Belarus, writes Belmarket, a local business news outlet. Alternatively, the company could sign a new license agreement with a Belarusian tobacco factory that is not subjected to Western sanctions. This could be newcomers Sentoni PRO and Alidi-West, Belmarket’s analysts speculated.
Alidi-West is a Russian company that distributes Kent cigarettes. It kicked off sales in Belarus in July 2024. Sentoni PRO is another firm registered to sell cigarettes in the country this year.
According to the Belarusian Ministry of Taxes and Duties, Sentoni PRO will produce Kent, Pall Mall, Rothmans, Vogue and Lucky Strike brands.
These players may also launch production at the capacities previously run by Western firms.
BAT in Belarus held a contract manufacturing agreement with the Grodno tobacco factory Neman. After Neman was subjected to the U.S. sanctions in 2021, the contract was canceled, and a part of BAT’s production was transferred to Tabak-Invest.
Around the same time, sanctions were also imposed against another Minsk factory, Inter Tobacco, which forced Philip Morris to withdraw from the license production.
In September 2023, BAT announced a deal to sell its business in Russia and Belarus to a consortium of Russian investors and local management, BAT Russia. Upon completion of the “business transfer,” the new structure became known as the ITMS Group of Companies. BAT left the business to its management along with the rights to the trademarks.
The gradual withdrawal of foreign business from Belarus could add pressure to the tobacco industry, which is braced for a hard time ahead.
