A new report by the EU-ASEAN Business Council estimates that illicit tobacco products accounted for 23.6% of tobacco consumption across six major ASEAN markets in 2025, with the share projected to rise to 27.8% by 2028. The report estimates illicit cigarettes reached 85 billion sticks in 2025, resulting in $6.3 billion in lost government revenue across the region. In Thailand, illicit cigarettes represented 23.6% of the market in 2025, up from 22.6% a year earlier, contributing to an estimated $1.4 billion (45 billion baht) in lost tax revenue over 2024-2025. Most illicit products are believed to be imported from neighboring countries or are counterfeit products entering through land borders.
The report identifies price disparities between legal and illicit products, cross-border smuggling, and growing online sales through e-commerce and social media as key factors contributing to the illicit market. It also notes that while Thailand uses QR code-enabled tax stamps, track-and-trace systems remain uneven across the region, creating enforcement gaps. The report recommends strengthening border controls, expanding track-and-trace systems, improving international cooperation, and enhancing enforcement to curb illicit trade while supporting public health and protecting government revenues.
