Machinery makers navigate supply chain challenges and customers’ changing product portfolios.
By George Gay
I was rummaging around in my office the other day, looking for something that I didn’t find, but as is often the case when rummaging, I did find many things for which I wasn’t looking. One of those things was a 20-year-old CD with the name of a tobacco machinery company on it and the title “Past, Present and Future,” and given that I was due to write a machinery story, I decided to take a look. The CD contained a PowerPoint presentation with 44 slides, 20 of them dedicated to the past, 23 to the present and one to the future. The future slide was unique not only in respect of it being the only one to address the future but also because it was blank except for the words “The Future.”
I don’t blame the presenter for being cautious. Predicting the future of the tobacco industry and its various sectors has always been fraught. The industry has been written off, prematurely, more times than I care to remember. But there is no doubt that, nowadays, the storm clouds appear to be more threatening, partly because they are coming from both within the tobacco industry and without. The range of regulations that govern the industry is becoming wider and more radical at a time when, partly in response to those regulations, the industry has chosen to transform itself.
So where is the industry, and, in particular, the tobacco machinery sector headed? It hardly seems worth stating that the future of the tobacco machinery business is linked to the future of the tobacco business, and, since the tobacco business is in decline, the tobacco machinery business must be in decline. End of story. But, of course, the situation is far more complex than that.
One obvious caveat that has to be added to this story concerns the offshoot the tobacco industry has grown, comprising lower risk tobacco and nicotine products. The problem here, however, is that it is not easy to predict whether this offshoot will flourish or atrophy. And, even if it does flourish, it is not easy to predict what the conversion rate of smokers to the consumption of these new types of products will be. It has to be remembered that if the traditional tobacco business is in decline, the opportunity for converting smokers diminishes, though this could be offset if nonsmokers were drawn to these products.
While some countries are encouraging, or at least not discouraging, such new products, others with huge populations are banning (India) or discouraging (China) them. In some countries, and for some time, entry to the new products markets will probably remain prohibitively expensive for many consumers, and there is the looming problem associated with environmental issues.