Emerging Niches
The positive developments encourage international giants to pump more money into their Polish operations, primarily eyeing the segment of heated-tobacco products.
“While sales of traditional tobacco products in Poland are relatively stable, the heated-tobacco products category has been constantly growing in the last five years, accounting for about 11 percent of the entire nicotine market in the country today,” commented Adrian Jablonski, corporate affairs and communications director of Japan Tobacco International Poland.
“In response to these evolving consumer trends, we introduced Ploom X—JTI’s third-generation heated-tobacco product—to the Polish market in September last year. Our heated-tobacco sticks [HTS] are produced at the state-of-the-art factory in Stary Gostkow, where we have already invested over $200 million in the reduced-risk products factory,” he added.
Jablonski added that JTI plans to continue to develop the HTS category in Poland, though the company cannot reveal details for competitive reasons.
However, the segment may also feel the sting of the tightening regulations in the foreseeable future.
In February 2024, Polish Health Minister Izabela Leszczyna announced that the government was considering a ban on the sale of disposable electronic cigarettes, as reported by the local newspaper Business Insider.
Leszczyna added that she would like to pursue the fastest possible legislative path to such a measure, given that as many as 64 percent of young people in Poland had “contact” with the product.
“Single-use e-cigarettes currently dominate the e-vapor product market in Poland. This trend has surged over the past three years. If Poland were to follow the U.K.’s lead and implement a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, it could significantly impact the entire e-vapor market,” Sidorenke said.
Sidorenke added that while some consumers may transition to other alternatives within the sector, a decline in overall e-vapor market demand is likely.
Heated-tobacco products in Poland currently face fewer regulatory restrictions compared to combustible cigarettes, with lower taxation and continued availability of flavored products. Despite calls from the European Commission for Poland to adhere to EU regulations prohibiting flavored heated-tobacco products, they remain on sale as of April 2024.
“However, it’s anticipated that new regulations will be implemented rather soon. It’s worth noting that the market has historically adapted to regulatory changes, as seen after the ban on flavors in traditional cigarettes. Thus, even with a potential flavor ban, the market is expected to adjust accordingly,” Sidorenke indicated.
In the next five years, the tobacco and nicotine market is expected to advance toward the development of next-generation novelty products, partially at the expense of traditional cigarettes and smoking tobacco, Euromonitor International analysts forecast.
A negative or uncertain forecast is anticipated for cigars, cigarillos, snuff and pipe tobacco. Beginning May 20, 2024, all tobacco products in Poland will be subject to the track-and-trace system. Previously, the EU track-and-trace system only covered cigarettes and fine-cut tobacco. However, as of May 2024, cigars, cigarillos, snuff and pipe tobacco will also fall under this system.
“This expansion will impose additional burdens on manufacturers and retailers due to the costs, complexity and compliance requirements. In anticipation, some distributors have already indicated plans to withdraw these items from their offerings after the system comes into effect,” Sidorenke said.