Predicting a significant increase in global flavor-grade tobacco supply for 2025, Zimbabwe’s Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board (TIMB) is urging growers to focus on quality by investing in an energy-efficient curing infrastructure, adopting precision farming techniques, and implementing improved agronomic practices.
For the 2025 season, Zimbabwe saw a 2.75% increase in hectares planted, which combined with improved rainfall distribution and better agronomic practices, puts the projected national output between 280 million and 300 million kg depending on the weather. Last year’s output of 231.7 million kg of flue-cured Virginia tobacco was a 13.1% increase from 2023.
The anticipated increase in Zimbabwe combined with projections that Brazil’s output will increase from 461.8 million kg in 2024 to at least 650 million kg in 2025 has experts predicting downward pressure on tobacco prices, particularly for middle to low-end grades.
Tapiwa Masedza, the factory coordinator for the Tian Ze Tobacco Company, said the global demand for tobacco remains robust, with many companies struggling to meet supply orders due to last year’s reduced crop size. That combined with China’s need for top-end grades gives hope that prices will remain stable for premium leaf, however low- to medium-end grades prices are expected to drop.
“While the anticipated increase in production is a testament to the sector’s resilience and growth, the potential price pressures underscore the need for strategic planning and investment in quality improvement,” Masedza said. “Mixing grades in bales, excessive moisture, and moldy tobacco can lead to discounts or rejections, ultimately affecting profitability.”
TIMB is trying to help insulate local farmers from potential subdued prices resulting from excess supply with a new pricing system, expected to be implemented April 5. The system will determine the following day’s minimum price based on the average price of all tobacco sold — both at auction and through contracts — across all grades.
