American economist Arthur Laffer said the Philippines may have reached the point where continued increases in tobacco excise taxes are reducing government revenue while accelerating illicit cigarette trade. Citing government data, Laffer said tobacco excise collections peaked at PHP176 billion ($2.8 billion) in 2021 before declining to PHP134 billion ($2.1 billion) in 2024 despite ongoing annual tax increases, arguing the trend reflects the “Laffer Curve” effect.
He also referenced a University of Asia and the Pacific study estimating illicit cigarette trade cost the government PHP22 billion ($352 million) in lost tax revenue and contributed to broader economic losses. Laffer urged policymakers to adopt a data-driven approach that balances public health and fiscal objectives, including lower tax rates for smoke-free nicotine products to encourage adult smokers to switch while helping curb the illicit market.
