Contraband cigarette consumption in Belgium surged in 2025, with illicit and untaxed foreign products accounting for 44.4% of total consumption in Q4, up from 34.9% a year earlier, according to Cigarette Manufacturers of Belgium and Luxembourg (Cimabel). The rise contributed to an estimated €3 billion loss in excise and VAT revenues, while counterfeit cigarettes increased to 4.6% of the market, raising concerns over unregulated production and potential health risks. Most untaxed cigarettes originated from lower-price markets such as Bulgaria, Luxembourg, and Turkey, with urban areas particularly affected by high levels of illicit purchasing.
Industry representatives attribute the growth in illegal trade to rising tobacco taxes and regulatory pressure, warning that price disparities are pushing consumers toward black market channels. Cimabel has called for a policy rethink, including harmonizing excise rates across the EU, strengthening customs enforcement, and expanding access to reduced-risk nicotine alternatives, as authorities face mounting challenges in balancing fiscal policy with illicit trade control.