Vietnam’s planned introduction of a mixed tobacco excise tax from 2027 is expected to combine a 75% ad valorem rate with a gradually increasing specific tax, adding 2,000 VND ($0.08) per pack annually and reaching 10,000 VND ($0.38) by 2031. The policy aims to reduce smoking rates, increase the tax share of retail prices to nearly 60%, and boost excise revenue, which is projected to more than double to 39.1 trillion VND ($1.5 billion) by 2030. However, officials and experts warn that higher taxes could widen price gaps and push some consumers toward illicit tobacco, which already accounts for an estimated 20–22% of the market and causes annual tax losses of up to 6 trillion VND ($228 million).
Authorities say stronger enforcement will be critical to support the policy, including higher penalties for smuggling and retail violations, expanded oversight of e-commerce sales, and coordinated action among customs, police, and border forces. Recent enforcement efforts have resulted in over 23 million packs of illicit cigarettes seized and more than 1,600 violations recorded, though officials note that trafficking remains widespread and increasingly sophisticated across multiple regions.
