Sales of legal tobacco in the United Kingdom have dropped by 52% since 2021, according to new data from HMRC, however, smoking prevalence and consumption per smoker have remained relatively stable, indicating a sharp rise in the illicit cigarette trade. Reports show manufactured cigarette volumes fell 46% from 23.4 billion to 12.6 billion sticks, while rolling tobacco declined 59% from 8.6 million kilograms to 3.6 million kilograms. When converted into cigarette equivalents, just 19.8 billion sticks were sold legally in 2025, less than half the 40.6 billion sold in 2021.
With excise duty on cigarettes and rolling tobacco rising 73% and 115%, respectively, since 2020, resulting tobacco duty revenues have fallen from £10.4 billion to £7.9 billion, the lowest on record after adjusting for inflation, highlighting the rapid expansion of the black market. Dr Christopher Snowdon, head of lifestyle economics at the Institute of Economic Affairs, said the figures provide “conclusive proof” that illicit tobacco is proliferating, noting that the growth of the black market is evident to smokers and the general public alike. The analysis underscores concerns that high taxes, while intended to curb smoking, have inadvertently fueled illegal sales, presenting a major challenge for regulators and law enforcement.
