South Africa’s 2020 tobacco ban, intended to reduce smoking-related health risks during the COVID-19 pandemic, drove legal sales underground and opened the door for illicit products that today account for as much as 75% of the market, according to law graduate Mukundi Budeli, writing for the Rational Standard and republished by the Free Market Foundation. Budeli said the shift cost the government tens of billions in lost tax revenue, fueled organized crime, and exposed consumers to unregulated and potentially more harmful products.
He also said the policy hastened the departure of British American Tobacco, which announced the closure of its Heidelberg plant by the end of 2026, which will directly affect 230 employees and is expected to ripple across the broader tobacco value chain, impacting up to 35,000 jobs. Budeli argues that the crisis illustrates the unintended consequences of overly restrictive regulation and calls for a re-evaluation of South Africa’s approach to tobacco policy. He suggests that future governance should strike a balance between public health objectives, economic stability, and individual freedoms to prevent similar market distortions.
The Free Market Foundation emphasizes that the situation serves as a warning to policymakers about the dangers of regulatory overreach and the need for pragmatic, accountable, and market-aware legislation in the tobacco sector.







